This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Past
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?
The market prices Yes at only 12%, with No at 89%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?
Right now the market's best guess is Yes at 12% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026 market resolve?
Mark 31 Dec 2026 (130 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?
$1.9K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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