Mercati di previsione sul Medio Oriente

I mercati di previsione sul Medio Oriente prezzano le maggiori domande della regione: cessate il fuoco, sanzioni, colloqui sul nucleare, elezioni e conflitti, come probabilità live che si aggiornano a ogni notizia.

Su Polymarket questi mercati hanno spesso una liquidità profonda attorno agli eventi di cronaca e durano settimane o mesi. Polymarkets segue i prezzi e le quote reali dei mercati su Israele, Iran, Gaza e Golfo, così puoi leggere la visione della folla in tempo reale, confrontare gli scenari ed esercitarti senza rischi in modalità allenamento prima di fare trading su Polymarket.

80 mercati attivi
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%SìNo
August 25August 2599%SìNo
$2,5 Mln Volume 30/09
Accordo nucleare finale USA-Iran entro...?Accordo nucleare finale USA-Iran entro...?
31 dicembre12%SìNo
November 307%SìNo
$16,2 Mln Volume 01/01
Gli Stati Uniti invaderanno l'Iran prima del 2027? Gli Stati Uniti invaderanno l'Iran prima del 2027?
17%
probabilità
Sì No
$84.559 Volume 31/12
Chi sarà il prossimo Primo Ministro di Israele dopo le prossime elezioni?Chi sarà il prossimo Primo Ministro di Israele dopo le prossime elezioni?
Gadi EizenkotGadi Eizenkot58%SìNo
Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin Netanyahu27%SìNo
$33 Mln Volume 31/12
Will Iran target Jordan by...?Will Iran target Jordan by...?
September 3039%SìNo
September 1518%SìNo
$40.518 Volume 30/09
Il regime iraniano cadrà prima del 2027? Il regime iraniano cadrà prima del 2027?
7%
probabilità
Sì No
$79.389 Volume 31/12
Leader iraniano entro la fine del 2026?Leader iraniano entro la fine del 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei82%SìNo
Nessun capo di stato4%SìNo
$38,8 Mln Volume 31/12
L'Iran accetterà di fermare l'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 31 dicembre? L'Iran accetterà di fermare l'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 31 dicembre?
14%
probabilità
Sì No
$22.372 Volume 31/12
USD x Iranian rials End of August?USD x Iranian rials End of August?
2.0-2.1M46%SìNo
2.1-2.2M34%SìNo
$20.582 Volume 31/08
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3129%SìNo
October 3113%SìNo
$6,8 Mln Volume 01/01
Houthis successfully target shipping by...?Houthis successfully target shipping by...?
September 3094%SìNo
August 3177%SìNo
$21.863 Volume 30/09
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
August 311%
September 303%
$108.048 Volume 01/10
Netanyahu fuori dalla carica entro...?Netanyahu fuori dalla carica entro...?
December 3149%SìNo
May 311%SìNo
$5.963 Volume 01/01
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?
September 3033%SìNo
September 1516%SìNo
$5.048 Volume 30/09
Houthis successfully target shipping on...?Houthis successfully target shipping on...?
August 2478%SìNo
August 1776%SìNo
$21.863 Volume 31/08
Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Arabia SauditaArabia Saudita10%SìNo
VenezuelaVenezuela10%SìNo
$4.234 Volume 31/12
Will Iran target an Arab country by...?Will Iran target an Arab country by...?
August 225%
August 3130%
$3.545 Volume 31/08
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 3128%SìNo
September 307%SìNo
$2.313 Volume 01/01
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
16%
probabilità
Sì No
$1.704 Volume 31/12
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
477%SìNo
513%SìNo
$1.652 Volume 31/12
Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by August 31?Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by August 31?
↑ 2.0M97%SìNo
↑ 2.1M58%SìNo
$1.578 Volume 31/08
Iran invades Kuwait by...?Iran invades Kuwait by...?
July 311%
August 311%
$1 Mln Volume 01/09
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?
2%
probabilità
Sì No
$1.748 Volume 31/08
Will Iran target Bahrain by...?Will Iran target Bahrain by...?
August 3140%SìNo
September 3035%SìNo
$1.170 Volume 30/09
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?
September 3050%SìNo
September 1520%SìNo
$1.052 Volume 30/09
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by...?Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by...?
September 1551%SìNo
September 3051%SìNo
$957 Volume 30/09
US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026? US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?
21%
probabilità
Sì No
$30.289 Volume 31/12
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 313%SìNo
June 263%SìNo
$1,6 Mln Volume 01/09
Will Iran target Syria by...?Will Iran target Syria by...?
September 157%SìNo
September 307%SìNo
$674 Volume 30/09
Will Iran target Iraq by...?Will Iran target Iraq by...?
September 3040%SìNo
September 1534%SìNo
$647 Volume 30/09
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
17%
probabilità
Sì No
$1.748 Volume 31/12
L'Iran accetterà di fermare l'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 30 settembre? L'Iran accetterà di fermare l'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 30 settembre?
4%
probabilità
Sì No
$22.372 Volume 30/09
Will Iran target Kuwait by...?Will Iran target Kuwait by...?
September 3032%SìNo
September 1520%SìNo
$379 Volume 30/09
Will Iran target Qatar by...?Will Iran target Qatar by...?
September 30September 3023%SìNo
September 15September 1511%SìNo
$356 Volume 30/09
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
December 314%SìNo
March 311%SìNo
$294 Volume 01/01
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
5%
probabilità
Sì No
$344.611 Volume 31/12
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
8%
probabilità
Sì No
$160.820 Volume 31/12
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?
3%
probabilità
Sì No
$174.291 Volume 30/09
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
December 3118%SìNo
August 311%SìNo
$1,7 Mln Volume 01/01
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
7%
probabilità
Sì No
$146 Volume 31/12
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Somaliland16%SìNo
Lebanon9%SìNo
$143 Volume 31/12
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
10%
probabilità
Sì No
$73 Volume 31/12
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...?U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...?
December 31, 202550%SìNo
December 31, 202629%SìNo
$456.370 Volume 01/01
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
October 3150%SìNo
December 3150%SìNo
$2,9 Mln Volume 01/01
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 3111%SìNo
August 311%SìNo
$1,2 Mln Volume
L'Iran accetta di consegnare il deposito di uranio arricchito entro...?L'Iran accetta di consegnare il deposito di uranio arricchito entro...?
31 dicembre8%SìNo
31 ottobre3%SìNo
$17,8 Mln Volume 01/01
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
8%
probabilità
Sì No
$55 Volume 31/12
Will Israel annex any territory by...?Will Israel annex any territory by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20268%SìNo
June 30, 2026June 30, 20261%SìNo
$533.274 Volume 01/01
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?
August 3111%SìNo
May 312%SìNo
$341.551 Volume 31/08
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
1%
probabilità
Sì No
$194.155 Volume 31/12
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?
5%
probabilità
Sì No
$100.506 Volume 31/12
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
October 3150%SìNo
December 3150%SìNo
$4,1 Mln Volume 01/01
Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?
June 301%SìNo
August 311%SìNo
$137.334 Volume 31/08
Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?
August 313%SìNo
July 312%SìNo
$100.672 Volume 31/08
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
5%
probabilità
Sì No
$158.351 Volume 31/12
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
9%
probabilità
Sì No
$15 Volume 31/12
Iran Nuke before 2027? Iran Nuke before 2027?
5%
probabilità
Sì No
$13 Volume 31/12
Iran coup attempt by...?Iran coup attempt by...?
December 319%
June 301%
$2,1 Mln Volume 01/01
Masoud Pezeshkian fuori dalla carica entro...?Masoud Pezeshkian fuori dalla carica entro...?
December 3115%SìNo
April 301%SìNo
$865.673 Volume 01/01
Houthi military action against Israel by...?Houthi military action against Israel by...?
August 315%SìNo
July 311%SìNo
$11 Volume 31/08
Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?
August 3110%SìNo
May 312%SìNo
$166.285 Volume 31/08
Iran nuclear test before 2027? Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5%
probabilità
Sì No
$6 Volume 31/12
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?
18%
probabilità
Sì No
$6 Volume 31/12
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
5%
probabilità
Sì No
$632.152 Volume 31/12
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026? UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
4%
probabilità
Sì No
$111.361 Volume 31/12
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 315%SìNo
June 301%SìNo
$21,8 Mln Volume 01/01
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026? Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?
8%
probabilità
Sì No
$12.421 Volume 01/01
Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?
December 316%
June 301%
$767.367 Volume 01/01
Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?
December 312%SìNo
June 151%SìNo
$185.337 Volume 01/01
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
8%
probabilità
Sì No
$185.868 Volume 31/12
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?
June 301%
December 314%
$117.835 Volume 01/01
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
10%
probabilità
Sì No
$236.000 Volume 31/12
Will Iran target Egypt by...?Will Iran target Egypt by...?
September 304%SìNo
September 152%SìNo
$21.340 Volume 30/09
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
18%
probabilità
Sì No
$53.582 Volume 31/12
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
93%
probabilità
Sì No
$167.448 Volume 31/12
Will Iran target Oman by...?Will Iran target Oman by...?
September 306%SìNo
September 154%SìNo
$28.013 Volume 30/09
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?
7%
probabilità
Sì No
$32.412 Volume 31/12
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?
December 3150%SìNo
December 31, 20268%SìNo
$940.097 Volume 01/01
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?
June 301%
December 3114%
$142.154 Volume 01/01
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
June 30, 20261%
December 31, 20269%
$3,5 Mln Volume 01/01
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FAQ sui mercati del Medio Oriente

Cosa coprono i mercati sul Medio Oriente?
Sviluppi su Israele e Iran, cessate il fuoco a Gaza e nella regione, sanzioni, negoziati sull'accordo nucleare, elezioni e più ampi esiti dei conflitti, ciascuno come mercato sì/no o a esiti multipli con una probabilità live.
Come funzionano le quote?
Ogni esito viene scambiato tra 1¢ e 99¢; il prezzo è la probabilità implicita del mercato. I prezzi si muovono in tempo reale mentre i trader reagiscono alle notizie, quindi riflettono il consenso attuale più che una linea fissa.
Posso seguirli o testarli senza rischi?
Sì. La modalità allenamento gratuita di Polymarkets ti permette di fare trading simulato su qualsiasi mercato con prezzi live e 1.000 $ di denaro di pratica, nessuna carta e nessun rischio, prima di passare a Polymarket.
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