Marchés de Prédiction Moyen-Orient

Les marchés de prédiction du Moyen-Orient cotent les grandes questions de la région - cessez-le-feu, sanctions, négociations nucléaires, élections et conflit - en probabilités vivantes qui évoluent à chaque actualité. Polymarkets suit les prix réels des marchés Israël, Iran, Gaza et Golfe, et vous permet de vous entraîner sans risque en mode entraînement avant de trader sur Polymarket.

80 marchés actifs
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%OuiNon
August 25August 2599%OuiNon
$2,5 M Vol 30/09
L'accord nucléaire final entre les États-Unis et l'Iran d'ici...?L'accord nucléaire final entre les États-Unis et l'Iran d'ici...?
31 décembre12%OuiNon
November 307%OuiNon
$16,2 M Vol 01/01
Les États-Unis envahiront-ils l'Iran avant 2027 ? Les États-Unis envahiront-ils l'Iran avant 2027 ?
17%
de chance
Oui Non
$84,6 k Vol 31/12
Qui sera le prochain Premier ministre d'Israël après les prochaines élections ?Qui sera le prochain Premier ministre d'Israël après les prochaines élections ?
Gadi EizenkotGadi Eizenkot58%OuiNon
Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin Netanyahu27%OuiNon
$33 M Vol 31/12
Will Iran target Jordan by...?Will Iran target Jordan by...?
September 3041%OuiNon
September 1518%OuiNon
$40,5 k Vol 30/09
Le régime iranien tombera-t-il avant 2027 ? Le régime iranien tombera-t-il avant 2027 ?
7%
de chance
Oui Non
$79,4 k Vol 31/12
Le leader iranien changera-t-il d'ici fin 2026 ?Le leader iranien changera-t-il d'ici fin 2026 ?
Mojtaba Khamenei82%OuiNon
Pas de chef d'État4%OuiNon
$38,8 M Vol 31/12
L'Iran acceptera-t-il d'arrêter l'enrichissement d'uranium d'ici le 31 décembre ? L'Iran acceptera-t-il d'arrêter l'enrichissement d'uranium d'ici le 31 décembre ?
14%
de chance
Oui Non
$22,4 k Vol 31/12
USD x Iranian rials End of August?USD x Iranian rials End of August?
2.0-2.1M46%OuiNon
2.1-2.2M34%OuiNon
$20,6 k Vol 31/08
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3129%OuiNon
October 3113%OuiNon
$6,8 M Vol 01/01
Houthis successfully target shipping by...?Houthis successfully target shipping by...?
September 3094%OuiNon
August 3177%OuiNon
$21,9 k Vol 30/09
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
August 311%
September 303%
$108 k Vol 01/10
Netanyahu hors de ses fonctions d'ici... ?Netanyahu hors de ses fonctions d'ici... ?
December 3149%OuiNon
May 311%OuiNon
$6 k Vol 01/01
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?
September 3033%OuiNon
September 1516%OuiNon
$5 k Vol 30/09
Houthis successfully target shipping on...?Houthis successfully target shipping on...?
August 1780%OuiNon
August 2478%OuiNon
$21,9 k Vol 31/08
Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Arabie SaouditeArabie Saoudite10%OuiNon
VenezuelaVenezuela10%OuiNon
$4,2 k Vol 31/12
Will Iran target an Arab country by...?Will Iran target an Arab country by...?
August 225%
August 3131%
$3,5 k Vol 31/08
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 3128%OuiNon
September 307%OuiNon
$2,3 k Vol 01/01
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
16%
de chance
Oui Non
$1,7 k Vol 31/12
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
477%OuiNon
513%OuiNon
$1,7 k Vol 31/12
Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by August 31?Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by August 31?
↑ 2.0M96%OuiNon
↑ 2.1M58%OuiNon
$1,6 k Vol 31/08
Iran invades Kuwait by...?Iran invades Kuwait by...?
July 311%
August 311%
$1 M Vol 01/09
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?
2%
de chance
Oui Non
$1,7 k Vol 31/08
Will Iran target Bahrain by...?Will Iran target Bahrain by...?
August 3138%OuiNon
September 3034%OuiNon
$1,2 k Vol 30/09
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?
September 3050%OuiNon
September 1520%OuiNon
$1,1 k Vol 30/09
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by...?Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by...?
September 1551%OuiNon
September 3051%OuiNon
$957 Vol 30/09
US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026? US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?
21%
de chance
Oui Non
$30,3 k Vol 31/12
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 313%OuiNon
June 263%OuiNon
$1,6 M Vol 01/09
Will Iran target Syria by...?Will Iran target Syria by...?
September 157%OuiNon
September 307%OuiNon
$674 Vol 30/09
Will Iran target Iraq by...?Will Iran target Iraq by...?
September 3040%OuiNon
September 1534%OuiNon
$647 Vol 30/09
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
17%
de chance
Oui Non
$1,7 k Vol 31/12
L'Iran acceptera-t-il d'arrêter l'enrichissement d'uranium d'ici le 30 septembre ? L'Iran acceptera-t-il d'arrêter l'enrichissement d'uranium d'ici le 30 septembre ?
4%
de chance
Oui Non
$22,4 k Vol 30/09
Will Iran target Kuwait by...?Will Iran target Kuwait by...?
September 3032%OuiNon
September 1520%OuiNon
$379 Vol 30/09
Will Iran target Qatar by...?Will Iran target Qatar by...?
September 30September 3023%OuiNon
September 15September 1512%OuiNon
$356 Vol 30/09
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
December 314%OuiNon
March 311%OuiNon
$294 Vol 01/01
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
5%
de chance
Oui Non
$344,6 k Vol 31/12
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
8%
de chance
Oui Non
$160,8 k Vol 31/12
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?
3%
de chance
Oui Non
$174,3 k Vol 30/09
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
December 3118%OuiNon
August 311%OuiNon
$1,7 M Vol 01/01
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
7%
de chance
Oui Non
$146 Vol 31/12
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Somaliland16%OuiNon
Lebanon9%OuiNon
$143 Vol 31/12
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
10%
de chance
Oui Non
$73 Vol 31/12
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...?U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...?
December 31, 202550%OuiNon
December 31, 202629%OuiNon
$456,4 k Vol 01/01
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
October 3150%OuiNon
December 3150%OuiNon
$2,9 M Vol 01/01
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 3111%OuiNon
August 311%OuiNon
$1,2 M Vol
L'Iran acceptera-t-il de remettre son stock d'uranium enrichi d'ici...?L'Iran acceptera-t-il de remettre son stock d'uranium enrichi d'ici...?
31 décembre8%OuiNon
31 octobre3%OuiNon
$17,8 M Vol 01/01
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
8%
de chance
Oui Non
$55 Vol 31/12
Will Israel annex any territory by...?Will Israel annex any territory by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20269%OuiNon
June 30, 2026June 30, 20261%OuiNon
$533,3 k Vol 01/01
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?
August 3111%OuiNon
May 312%OuiNon
$341,6 k Vol 31/08
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
1%
de chance
Oui Non
$194,2 k Vol 31/12
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?
5%
de chance
Oui Non
$100,5 k Vol 31/12
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
October 3150%OuiNon
December 3150%OuiNon
$4,1 M Vol 01/01
Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?
June 301%OuiNon
August 311%OuiNon
$137,3 k Vol 31/08
Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?
August 313%OuiNon
July 312%OuiNon
$100,7 k Vol 31/08
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
5%
de chance
Oui Non
$158,4 k Vol 31/12
Iran Nuke before 2027? Iran Nuke before 2027?
5%
de chance
Oui Non
$13 Vol 31/12
Iran coup attempt by...?Iran coup attempt by...?
December 319%
June 301%
$2,1 M Vol 01/01
Masoud Pezeshkian hors de ses fonctions d'ici... ?Masoud Pezeshkian hors de ses fonctions d'ici... ?
December 3115%OuiNon
April 301%OuiNon
$865,7 k Vol 01/01
Houthi military action against Israel by...?Houthi military action against Israel by...?
August 315%OuiNon
July 311%OuiNon
$11 Vol 31/08
Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?
August 3110%OuiNon
May 312%OuiNon
$166,3 k Vol 31/08
Iran nuclear test before 2027? Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5%
de chance
Oui Non
$6 Vol 31/12
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?
17%
de chance
Oui Non
$6 Vol 31/12
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026? UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
4%
de chance
Oui Non
$111,4 k Vol 31/12
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
5%
de chance
Oui Non
$632,2 k Vol 31/12
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 315%OuiNon
June 301%OuiNon
$21,8 M Vol 01/01
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
June 30, 20261%
December 31, 20269%
$3,5 M Vol 01/01
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026? Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?
8%
de chance
Oui Non
$12,4 k Vol 01/01
Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?
December 312%OuiNon
June 151%OuiNon
$185,3 k Vol 01/01
Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?
December 316%
June 301%
$767,4 k Vol 01/01
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
9%
de chance
Oui Non
$90 k Vol 31/12
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
8%
de chance
Oui Non
$185,9 k Vol 31/12
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?
June 301%
December 314%
$117,8 k Vol 01/01
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
11%
de chance
Oui Non
$236 k Vol 31/12
Will Iran target Egypt by...?Will Iran target Egypt by...?
September 304%OuiNon
September 151%OuiNon
$21,3 k Vol 30/09
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
18%
de chance
Oui Non
$53,6 k Vol 31/12
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
93%
de chance
Oui Non
$167,4 k Vol 31/12
Will Iran target Oman by...?Will Iran target Oman by...?
September 306%OuiNon
September 155%OuiNon
$28 k Vol 30/09
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?
7%
de chance
Oui Non
$32,4 k Vol 31/12
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?
December 3150%OuiNon
December 31, 20268%OuiNon
$940,1 k Vol 01/01
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?
June 301%
December 3114%
$142,2 k Vol 01/01
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