This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
<1.30ºC
$51 Volume
6%
1.30–1.33ºC
$605 Volume
3%
1.34–1.37ºC
$1.5K Volume
9%
1.38–1.41ºC
$215 Volume
73%
1.42–1.45ºC
$726 Volume
69%
>1.45ºC
$256 Volume
28%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)?
No runaway leader here - 1.38–1.41ºC at 46% versus 1.42–1.45ºC at 43%. Traders are split, so watch the live prices.
What do traders predict for August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)?
Traders give 1.38–1.41ºC a 46% chance - essentially a toss-up. In markets this tight, the implied odds can swing on a single piece of news.
When does the August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES) market resolve?
Mark 1 Sep 2026 (8 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)?
Total turnover stands at $3.3K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES) on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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