A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Lula
$4.7K Volume
99%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$385 Volume
2%
Clariana Barao
$358 Volume
1%
Edmilson Costa
$363 Volume
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$359 Volume
1%
Hertz Dias
$355 Volume
1%
Pablo Marçal
$283 Volume
1%
Renan Santos
$339 Volume
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$359 Volume
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$271 Volume
1%
Samara
$351 Volume
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$351 Volume
1%
Zema
$231 Volume
1%
Candidate A
50%
Candidate B
50%
Candidate C
50%
Candidate D
50%
Candidate E
50%
Candidate F
50%
Candidate G
50%
Candidate H
50%
Candidate I
50%
Candidate J
50%
Candidate K
50%
Candidate L
50%
Candidate M
50%
Candidate N
50%
Candidate O
50%
Candidate P
50%
Candidate Q
50%
Candidate R
50%
Candidate S
50%
Candidate T
50%
Candidate U
50%
Candidate V
50%
Candidate W
50%
Candidate X
50%
Candidate Y
50%
Candidate Z
50%
Other
50%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Bahia?
Lula dominates the field at 97%; the nearest challenger, Candidate A, trades at just 50%. The order book treats this as nearly decided.
What do traders predict for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Bahia?
Traders price Lula at a 97% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Bahia market resolve?
The market runs until 4 Oct 2026 (41 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Bahia?
Traders have put $8.7K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Bahia on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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