AI · gpt

ChatGPT Full Outage by August 31?

$2 Volume
31/08/2026 23:59
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.

Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.

An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.

Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for ChatGPT Full Outage by August 31?
Yes is the outsider here at 5%, while No trades at 96%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for ChatGPT Full Outage by August 31?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 5%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the ChatGPT Full Outage by August 31 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Aug 2026 (8 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on ChatGPT Full Outage by August 31?
Traders have put $2 through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade ChatGPT Full Outage by August 31 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.

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