Oil · Iran

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?

$4.5K Volume
30/08/2026 23:59
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<160
$30 Volume
16%
160-179
$80 Volume
15%
180-199
$149 Volume
34%
200-219
$13.1K Volume
21%
220+
$847 Volume
25%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?
The field is wide open: 180-199 tops it at just 32%, with 220+ close behind at 23%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.
What do traders predict for How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?
No strong consensus yet: 180-199 tops the implied probabilities at just 32%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24 market resolve?
The market runs until 30 Aug 2026 (7 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?
Total turnover stands at $4.5K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24 on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.

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