This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
July 15 or prior
$30 Volume
29%
July 16
$191 Volume
79%
July 17
$250 Volume
1%
July 18
$1K Volume
1%
July 19
$974 Volume
1%
July 20
$1.8K Volume
1%
July 21
$8.2K Volume
1%
July 22
$2.9K Volume
1%
July 23
$75K Volume
1%
July 24
$151K Volume
99%
July 25
$29.6K Volume
1%
July 26
$30.9K Volume
1%
July 27
$25.8K Volume
1%
July 28
$38.3K Volume
1%
July 29
$32.3K Volume
1%
July 30
$45.3K Volume
1%
No release by July 31
$67.9K Volume
1%
July 31
$19.2K Volume
1%
Odds & FAQ
When does the Next Claude Opus released on...? (Resolved) market resolve?
Trading here has ended - the market resolved and was settled under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Next Claude Opus released on...? (Resolved)?
Total turnover stands at $1.7K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
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