This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
No change
$7.3K Volume
57%
25 bps increase
$3.6K Volume
45%
25 bps decrease
$507 Volume
3%
50+ bps decrease
$620 Volume
3%
50+ bps increase
$474 Volume
1%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?
It's a genuine race: No change edges the field at 56%, barely ahead of 25 bps increase at 44%. Tight markets like this can flip on one headline.
What do traders predict for Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?
Traders give No change a 56% chance - essentially a toss-up. In markets this tight, the implied odds can swing on a single piece of news.
When does the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October market resolve?
Mark 28 Oct 2026 (65 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?
Traders have put $3.8K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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