This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Cuba between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Cuba relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Cuba, and a consensus of credible reporting.
August 31
$118 Volume
20%
October 31
$11.3K Volume
50%
Resolved 2
June 30
$6.6K Volume
No
July 31
$19.3K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by?
The field is wide open: October 31 tops it at just 38%, with August 31 close behind at 12%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.
What do traders predict for US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by?
No strong consensus yet: October 31 tops the implied probabilities at just 38%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by market resolve?
Mark 1 Nov 2026 (68 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by?
Traders have put $11 through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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