This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ICC
· Gaza
Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
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Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
Yes is the outsider here at 16%, while No trades at 84%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 16%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Dec 2027 (495 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
$99.4K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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