Culture · Science

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?

$1.9K Volume
01/01/2029 04:59
View on Polymarket
View on Official Site Trade with real money on Polymarket
December 31, 2026
$1.7K Volume
6%
December 31, 2027
$230 Volume
43%
December 31, 2028
$2 Volume
49%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems, or otherwise officially declares any of these problems solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that one of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI.

A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that a problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered.

A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?
The field is wide open: December 31, 2028 tops it at just 36%, with December 31, 2027 close behind at 32%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.
What do traders predict for Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?
Right now the market's best guess is December 31, 2028 at 36% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___ market resolve?
Mark 1 Jan 2029 (861 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?
$1.9K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___ on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.

Similar Markets

December 314%YesNo
September 301%YesNo
SpaceXSpaceX65%YesNo
AnthropicAnthropic36%YesNo
October 3196%YesNo
September 3092%YesNo
<425mm77%YesNo
475-500mm32%YesNo
80-9963%YesNo
100–11935%YesNo
171%YesNo
225%YesNo
2800+95%YesNo
2825+92%YesNo
↑3k99%YesNo
↑3.5k95%YesNo
Trade on Polymarket
Start Polymarket Training For Free
Trade prediction markets with virtual money. Real prices, zero risk. Compete on the leaderboard.
$1K
Virtual Cash
500+
Markets
$0
Real Risk
Learn more