🔬 Mercados de Predicción: Tecnología y Ciencia

59 mercados activos

Tech & Science prediction markets — AI, space and technology

¿La mayor IPO por capitalización bursátil en 2026?¿La mayor IPO por capitalización bursátil en 2026?
SpaceXSpaceX65%SíNo
AnthropicAnthropic36%SíNo
$5,5 M Vol 31/12
¿Confirmará EE.UU. que los extraterrestres existen para...?¿Confirmará EE.UU. que los extraterrestres existen para...?
December 314%SíNo
September 301%SíNo
$65,5 M Vol 01/01
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
October 3196%SíNo
September 3091%SíNo
$5,1 mil Vol 01/07
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
12%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$3,9 mil Vol 31/12
How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
Fewer than 2043%SíNo
20 to 3439%SíNo
$3 mil Vol 31/03
¿Precipitaciones en Hong Kong en agosto?¿Precipitaciones en Hong Kong en agosto?
<425mm80%SíNo
475-500mm15%SíNo
$9,8 mil Vol 01/09
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
171%SíNo
225%SíNo
$3,4 M Vol 31/12
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
↑3k99%SíNo
↑3.5k95%SíNo
$1,8 mil Vol 31/12
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027? Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?
88%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$39,9 mil Vol 30/06
FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?
December 31, 202769%
June 30, 202715%
$48,2 mil Vol 31/12
How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
80-9939%SíNo
100–11936%SíNo
$6 mil Vol 01/09
¿Nueva pandemia en 2026? ¿Nueva pandemia en 2026?
6%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$621 Vol 31/12
Measles cases in U.S. by August 31?Measles cases in U.S. by August 31?
2800+85%SíNo
2825+83%SíNo
$1,8 mil Vol 31/08
Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___?Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___?
October 31, 20268%
December 31, 20268%
$3,5 mil Vol 01/01
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
<564%SíNo
5-634%SíNo
$499 Vol 31/12
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
7%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$307,4 mil Vol 31/12
Cyclosporiasis cases in U.S. by August 31?Cyclosporiasis cases in U.S. by August 31?
10,000+99%SíNo
15,000+99%SíNo
$458 Vol 31/08
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
6%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$144,5 mil Vol 31/03
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
1%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$811,4 mil Vol 31/12
How many SpaceX launches in August 2026?How many SpaceX launches in August 2026?
1382%SíNo
1412%SíNo
$335 Vol 31/08
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
1.38–1.41ºC46%SíNo
1.42–1.45ºC21%SíNo
$3,3 mil Vol 01/09
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
2%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$116,6 mil Vol 31/12
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
14–1643%SíNo
17–1936%SíNo
$250 Vol 31/12
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31? Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
9%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$11,5 mil Vol 31/12
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?
December 31, 202836%SíNo
December 31, 202732%SíNo
$1,9 mil Vol 01/01
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
15%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$340,8 mil Vol 31/12
¿Precipitaciones en Seúl en agosto?¿Precipitaciones en Seúl en agosto?
250-300mm45%SíNo
<150mm44%SíNo
$373 Vol 01/09
Natural Disaster in 2026? Natural Disaster in 2026?
28%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$241,7 mil Vol 31/12
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
063%SíNo
126%SíNo
$1,2 M Vol 31/03
Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___?Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___?
December 31, 20261%
December 31, 202715%
$11 mil Vol 01/01
Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...? Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
17%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$10,7 mil Vol 31/12
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
3%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$578,7 mil Vol 31/12
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
2%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$196 mil Vol 31/12
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
13%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$139,5 mil Vol 31/12
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?
December 31, 202768%SíNo
June 30, 202754%SíNo
$935,7 mil Vol 01/01
100kt meteor strike in 2026? 100kt meteor strike in 2026?
5%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$8,9 mil Vol 31/12
5kt meteor strike in 2026? 5kt meteor strike in 2026?
29%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$10 Vol 31/12
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
38%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$8 Vol 31/12
¿Precipitaciones en Seattle en agosto?¿Precipitaciones en Seattle en agosto?
menos de 0.5"menos de 0.5"89%SíNo
0.5-1"0.5-1"11%SíNo
$234 Vol 01/09
How many SpaceX launches in 2026?How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
140-15950%SíNo
160-17936%SíNo
$335 Vol 31/12
¿Precipitaciones en Londres en agosto?¿Precipitaciones en Londres en agosto?
<30mm60%SíNo
30-40mm34%SíNo
$7,6 mil Vol 01/09
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026? Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
5%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$650 Vol 31/12
¿Precipitaciones en Nueva York en agosto?¿Precipitaciones en Nueva York en agosto?
más de 6"más de 6"66%SíNo
4-5"4-5"3%SíNo
$2,5 mil Vol 01/09
Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?
2900+93%
3000+91%
$1,8 mil Vol 30/09
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
10%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$101,8 mil Vol 31/12
New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026? New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?
4%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$23,4 mil Vol 31/12
Human moon landing in 2026? Human moon landing in 2026?
1%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$2 M Vol 31/12
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
SpaceX94%
OpenAI6%
$11,3 mil Vol 31/12
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+88%SíNo
1200–12496%SíNo
$81,9 mil Vol 10/01
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
9%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$16,5 mil Vol 31/12
FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year? FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year?
89%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$2,6 mil Vol 31/12
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028? SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?
74%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$8 Vol 31/12
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...
October 31October 3169%SíNo
December 31December 3162%SíNo
$4,7 mil Vol
Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?
October 31October 3147%SíNo
August 30August 3042%SíNo
$1,4 mil Vol 01/01
2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest99%SíNo
2nd hottest1%SíNo
$1,8 mil Vol 01/09
Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?
October 31, 202653%SíNo
September 30, 202619%SíNo
$1,9 mil Vol 01/11
Will summer 2026 be France's hottest summer on record? Will summer 2026 be France's hottest summer on record?
97%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$1,1 mil Vol 01/10
Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
7.9 or below75%SíNo
8.0 – 8.19%SíNo
$2,4 mil Vol 04/01
Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026? Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026?
1%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$425 Vol 31/12
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