📈 予測市場：ビジネス

100 アクティブなマーケット

Business prediction markets — stocks, interest rates and inflation

Largest Company end of September?Largest Company end of September?
NVIDIANVIDIA89%はいいいえ
AppleApple8%はいいいえ
$23.7万 取引高 30/09
FRBは2026年に何回利下げする？FRBは2026年に何回利下げする？
0 (0 bps)87%はいいいえ
1 (25 bps)10%はいいいえ
$4,952.5万 取引高 31/12
Largest Company end of August?Largest Company end of August?
NVIDIANVIDIA97%はいいいえ
AppleApple2%はいいいえ
$23.7万 取引高 残り7日
OpenAI IPO 終値時価総額OpenAI IPO 終値時価総額
1.5T+48%はいいいえ
1T–1.25T18%はいいいえ
$3.4万 取引高 31/12
Largest Company end of December 2026?Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIANVIDIA72%はいいいえ
AppleApple14%はいいいえ
$23.7万 取引高 31/12
2026年、時価総額で最大のIPOは？2026年、時価総額で最大のIPOは？
SpaceXSpaceX65%はいいいえ
AnthropicAnthropic36%はいいいえ
$553.2万 取引高 31/12
3rd Largest Company end of August?3rd Largest Company end of August?
AlphabetAlphabet95%はいいいえ
AppleApple4%はいいいえ
$8,744 取引高 残り7日
IPOs before 2027?IPOs before 2027?
SHEINSHEIN98%はいいいえ
AnthropicAnthropic89%はいいいえ
$7,259 取引高 31/12
2nd Largest Company end of August?2nd Largest Company end of August?
AppleApple93%はいいいえ
AlphabetAlphabet6%はいいいえ
$7,020 取引高 残り7日
OpenAIは___までにIPO？OpenAIは___までにIPO？
December 31, 202616%はいいいえ
September 30, 20261%はいいいえ
$287.8万 取引高 31/12
2026年末までに米国景気後退？ 2026年末までに米国景気後退？
8%
確率
はい いいえ
$3,611 取引高 31/12
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Anthropic94%
OpenAI6%
$31.9万 取引高 31/12
Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?
September 3037%はいいいえ
August 3110%はいいいえ
$2,416 取引高 01/10
2027年までにどの企業が買収されるか？2027年までにどの企業が買収されるか？
PayPalPayPal47%はいいいえ
MGM ResortsMGM Resorts35%はいいいえ
$1,818.1万 取引高 31/12
Critical Discord Incident by...?Critical Discord Incident by...?
August 3113%
September 3057%
$1,839 取引高 01/10
GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of August?GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of August?
$0.50-$0.5558%はいいいえ
$0.45-$0.5032%はいいいえ
$2,233 取引高 残り7日
GPU rental prices (A100) end of October?GPU rental prices (A100) end of October?
$1.00-$1.2561%はいいいえ
$0.75-$1.0023%はいいいえ
$1,734 取引高 31/10
2027年までにFRBの緊急利下げ？ 2027年までにFRBの緊急利下げ？
7%
確率
はい いいえ
$1,292 取引高 31/12
GPU rental prices (B200) end of September?GPU rental prices (B200) end of September?
$6.50-$7.0030%はいいいえ
$5.50-$6.0022%はいいいえ
$2,712 取引高 30/09
GPU rental prices (H200) end of August?GPU rental prices (H200) end of August?
$4.50-$5.0036%はいいいえ
$4.00-$4.5021%はいいいえ
$1,196 取引高 残り7日
GPU rental prices (B200) end of 2026?GPU rental prices (B200) end of 2026?
$6.00-$6.5024%はいいいえ
$5.50-$6.0020%はいいいえ
$2,712 取引高 31/12
GPU rental prices (B200) end of October?GPU rental prices (B200) end of October?
$6.50+39%はいいいえ
$6.00-$6.5022%はいいいえ
$2,712 取引高 31/10
GPU rental prices (H100) end of October?GPU rental prices (H100) end of October?
$2.75-$3.0025%はいいいえ
$2.50-$2.7522%はいいいえ
$1,593 取引高 31/10
Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?
WorkhorseWorkhorse24%はいいいえ
Beyond MeatBeyond Meat15%はいいいえ
$22.8万 取引高 31/12
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?
3%
確率
はい いいえ
$594 取引高 31/12
Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?
$6.50T+20%はいいいえ
<$4.00T19%はいいいえ
$552 取引高 31/12
AI bubble burst by...?AI bubble burst by...?
December 31, 202550%はいいいえ
December 31, 202613%はいいいえ
$293.3万 取引高 01/01
GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of October?GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of October?
$0.45-$0.5035%はいいいえ
$0.50-$0.5530%はいいいえ
$2,233 取引高 31/10
GPU rental prices (H100) end of September?GPU rental prices (H100) end of September?
$2.50-$2.7526%はいいいえ
$2.75-$3.0019%はいいいえ
$1,593 取引高 30/09
GPU rental prices (H100) end of August?GPU rental prices (H100) end of August?
$2.75-$3.0039%はいいいえ
$3.00-$3.2526%はいいいえ
$1,593 取引高 残り7日
Richest person on December 31, 2026?Richest person on December 31, 2026?
Elon MuskElon Musk97%はいいいえ
Warren BuffettWarren Buffett1%はいいいえ
$377 取引高 31/12
GPU rental prices (A100) end of August?GPU rental prices (A100) end of August?
$1.00-$1.2593%はいいいえ
$1.25-$1.504%はいいいえ
$1,734 取引高 残り7日
How high will Polymarket's mindshare go by December 31?How high will Polymarket's mindshare go by December 31?
75%78%はいいいえ
80%48%はいいいえ
$289 取引高 31/12
GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of September?GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of September?
$0.50-$0.5536%はいいいえ
$0.45-$0.5033%はいいいえ
$2,233 取引高 30/09
Shein IPO Closing Market Cap Above __?Shein IPO Closing Market Cap Above __?
↑ 200B HKD73%はいいいえ
↑ 250B HKD41%はいいいえ
$1.4万 取引高 31/12
Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?
Goldman SachsGoldman Sachs76%はいいいえ
Morgan StanleyMorgan Stanley25%はいいいえ
$4.3万 取引高 31/12
3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?
AlphabetAlphabet45%はいいいえ
AppleApple26%はいいいえ
$8,744 取引高 31/12
2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?
AppleApple43%はいいいえ
AlphabetAlphabet32%はいいいえ
$7,020 取引高 31/12
CopperTech Metals IPO 終値時価総額CopperTech Metals IPO 終値時価総額
No IPO before September 202698%はいいいえ
$4.8B-$5.4B2%はいいいえ
$173 取引高 01/09
GPU rental prices (H200) end of October?GPU rental prices (H200) end of October?
$4.50-$5.0030%はいいいえ
$4.00-$4.5026%はいいいえ
$1,196 取引高 31/10
3rd Largest Company end of September?3rd Largest Company end of September?
AlphabetAlphabet68%はいいいえ
AppleApple20%はいいいえ
$8,744 取引高 30/09
GPU rental prices (B200) end of August?GPU rental prices (B200) end of August?
$6.50-$7.0038%はいいいえ
$6.00-$6.5025%はいいいえ
$2,712 取引高 残り7日
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?
26%
確率
はい いいえ
$8.2万 取引高 31/12
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
80%
確率
はい いいえ
$86 取引高 31/12
US bank failure by December 31, 2026? US bank failure by December 31, 2026?
77%
確率
はい いいえ
$74 取引高 31/12
2nd Largest Company end of September?2nd Largest Company end of September?
AppleApple75%はいいいえ
AlphabetAlphabet20%はいいいえ
$7,020 取引高 30/09
Which banks will fail by end of 2026?Which banks will fail by end of 2026?
Deutsche BankDeutsche Bank3%はいいいえ
US BankUS Bank3%はいいいえ
$51 取引高 31/12
Discord IPO 終値時価総額Discord IPO 終値時価総額
8–11B25%はいいいえ
No IPO by December 31, 202722%はいいいえ
$50 取引高 31/12
Apple’s Market Cap end of 2026?Apple’s Market Cap end of 2026?
$4.50-$5.00T26%はいいいえ
$4.00-$4.50T25%はいいいえ
$49 取引高 31/12
GPU rental prices (H100) hit___ in 2026?GPU rental prices (H100) hit___ in 2026?
↓ $2.2575%はいいいえ
↑ $3.5067%はいいいえ
$46 取引高 31/12
Deepseekは___までにIPO？Deepseekは___までにIPO？
December 31, 202776%はいいいえ
June 30, 202748%はいいいえ
$1.5万 取引高 01/01
GPU rental prices (H100) end of 2026?GPU rental prices (H100) end of 2026?
$2.50-$3.0034%はいいいえ
$2.00-$2.5016%はいいいえ
$1,593 取引高 31/12
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
30%
確率
はい いいえ
$30.4万 取引高 31/12
GPU rental prices (H200) end of September?GPU rental prices (H200) end of September?
$4.50-$5.0023%はいいいえ
$5.00-$5.5019%はいいいえ
$1,196 取引高 30/09
JIO Platformsは___までにIPO？JIO Platformsは___までにIPO？
December 3166%はいいいえ
September 3027%はいいいえ
$1.2万 取引高 01/01
GPU rental prices (H200) hit___ in 2026?GPU rental prices (H200) hit___ in 2026?
↓ $4.0086%はいいいえ
↑ $6.0070%はいいいえ
$19 取引高 31/12
Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027? Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027?
14%
確率
はい いいえ
$16 取引高 31/12
FIFA: UEFA to End FIFA Boycott By…?FIFA: UEFA to End FIFA Boycott By…?
September 21, 202644%はいいいえ
September 7, 202640%はいいいえ
$8,075 取引高
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?
Clip-on device for clothing19%はいいいえ
Necklace11%はいいいえ
$41.2万 取引高 31/12
Anthropic acquired before 2027? Anthropic acquired before 2027?
3%
確率
はい いいえ
$10 取引高 31/12
Which nicotine pouch brands will be bought by Big Tobacco?Which nicotine pouch brands will be bought by Big Tobacco?
Juice Head44%はいいいえ
Lucy42%はいいいえ
$654 取引高 31/12
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
40%
確率
はい いいえ
$8 取引高 31/12
Krakenは___までにIPO？Krakenは___までにIPO？
December 3150%はいいいえ
December 31, 202616%はいいいえ
$159.8万 取引高 01/01
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
3.9%3.9%10%はいいいえ
3.6%3.6%5%はいいいえ
$22.5万 取引高 31/12
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31? Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?
17%
確率
はい いいえ
$6 取引高 31/12
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026? Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?
56%
確率
はい いいえ
$7.3万 取引高 31/12
Alphabet’s Market Cap end of 2026?Alphabet’s Market Cap end of 2026?
$4.00-$4.50T26%はいいいえ
$4.50-$5.00T22%はいいいえ
$308 取引高 31/12
Which CEOs will be out before 2027?Which CEOs will be out before 2027?
Andy Jassy - AmazonAndy Jassy - Amazon10%はいいいえ
Sundar Pichai - GoogleSundar Pichai - Google8%はいいいえ
$71.1万 取引高 31/12
Discord IPO by __?Discord IPO by __?
December 3127%はいいいえ
November 3020%はいいいえ
$4,440 取引高 01/01
McDonald’s in Cuba announced in 2026? McDonald’s in Cuba announced in 2026?
7%
確率
はい いいえ
$1,425 取引高 31/12
Next CEO of JPMorgan Chase? Next CEO of JPMorgan Chase?
Marianne Lake50%はいいいえ
Doug Petno48%はいいいえ
$113 取引高 31/12
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028? SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?
75%
確率
はい いいえ
$8 取引高 31/12
Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO?Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO?
Goldman SachsGoldman Sachs62%はいいいえ
Morgan StanleyMorgan Stanley29%はいいいえ
$5.1万 取引高 31/12
Will McCormick merge with Unilever Foods by...?Will McCormick merge with Unilever Foods by...?
December 31, 202752%はいいいえ
June 30, 202751%はいいいえ
$606 取引高 01/01
Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?
JetBlueJetBlue8%はいいいえ
Frontier AirlinesFrontier Airlines7%はいいいえ
$14.9万 取引高 31/12
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
OpenAIOpenAI30%はいいいえ
GoogleGoogle17%はいいいえ
$13万 取引高 31/12
Ben Pasternak jailed? Ben Pasternak jailed?
3%
確率
はい いいえ
$5.1万 取引高 31/12
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?
Up90%
Down10%
$2.6万 取引高 28/02
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?
18%
確率
はい いいえ
$5.2万 取引高 31/12
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?
3%
確率
はい いいえ
$10.4万 取引高 01/01
3rd richest person on December 31?3rd richest person on December 31?
Sergey BrinSergey Brin45%はいいいえ
Jeff BezosJeff Bezos36%はいいいえ
$2.5万 取引高 31/12
GPU rental prices (A100) end of September?GPU rental prices (A100) end of September?
$1.00-$1.2569%はいいいえ
$0.75-$1.0022%はいいいえ
$1,734 取引高 30/09
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
$800B83%はいいいえ
$1T76%はいいいえ
$152.1万 取引高 31/12
Bloombergは___までにIPO？Bloombergは___までにIPO？
December 31, 202747%はいいいえ
June 30, 202741%はいいいえ
$4,584 取引高 01/01
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
SpaceX94%
OpenAI6%
$1.1万 取引高 31/12
Microsoft’s Market Cap end of 2026?Microsoft’s Market Cap end of 2026?
<$2.50T50%はいいいえ
$2.50-$3.00T50%はいいいえ
$0 取引高 31/12
Amazon’s Market Cap end of 2026?Amazon’s Market Cap end of 2026?
$2.50-$3.00T34%はいいいえ
$3.00-$3.50T26%はいいいえ
$1,659 取引高 31/12
Strava IPO 終値時価総額Strava IPO 終値時価総額
7B–10B7B–10B32%はいいいえ
2B–3B2B–3B29%はいいいえ
$8.9万 取引高 31/12
Will fomo.family be acquired in 2026? Will fomo.family be acquired in 2026?
17%
確率
はい いいえ
$1,438 取引高 01/01
Will Coingecko be acquired in 2026? Will Coingecko be acquired in 2026?
14%
確率
はい いいえ
$3.1万 取引高 01/01
Perplexity IPO 終値時価総額Perplexity IPO 終値時価総額
No IPO before 202864%はいいいえ
<20B8%はいいいえ
$14.7万 取引高 31/12
2027年末までに米国景気後退？ 2027年末までに米国景気後退？
36%
確率
はい いいえ
$3,611 取引高 31/12
Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027? Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?
9%
確率
はい いいえ
$3.2万 取引高 31/12
OpenAI acquired before 2027? OpenAI acquired before 2027?
4%
確率
はい いいえ
$4,599 取引高 31/12
Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?
5%
確率
はい いいえ
$1.7万 取引高 31/12
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?
14%
確率
はい いいえ
$10万 取引高 31/12
Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap?Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap?
Anthropic72%
OpenAI28%
$9 取引高 31/12
Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026? Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026?
1%
確率
はい いいえ
$425 取引高 31/12
GPU rental prices (H200) end of 2026?GPU rental prices (H200) end of 2026?
$4.00-$4.5020%はいいいえ
$5.50-$6.0018%はいいいえ
$1,196 取引高 31/12
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
15%
確率
はい いいえ
$29.8万 取引高 31/12
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