🔬 予測市場：テック＆サイエンス

59 アクティブなマーケット

Tech & Science prediction markets — AI, space and technology

2026年、時価総額で最大のIPOは？2026年、時価総額で最大のIPOは？
SpaceXSpaceX65%はいいいえ
AnthropicAnthropic36%はいいいえ
$553.1万 取引高 31/12
米国は……までにエイリアンの存在を確認するか？米国は……までにエイリアンの存在を確認するか？
December 314%はいいいえ
September 301%はいいいえ
$6,548.7万 取引高 01/01
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
October 3196%はいいいえ
September 3091%はいいいえ
$5,147 取引高 01/07
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
12%
確率
はい いいえ
$3,895 取引高 31/12
How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
Fewer than 2043%はいいいえ
20 to 3439%はいいいえ
$3,034 取引高 31/03
8月の香港の降水量は？8月の香港の降水量は？
<425mm80%はいいいえ
475-500mm15%はいいいえ
$9,847 取引高 01/09
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
171%はいいいえ
225%はいいいえ
$336.3万 取引高 31/12
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
↑3k99%はいいいえ
↑3.5k95%はいいいえ
$1,767 取引高 31/12
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027? Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?
88%
確率
はい いいえ
$4万 取引高 30/06
FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?
December 31, 202769%
June 30, 202715%
$4.8万 取引高 31/12
How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
80-9939%はいいいえ
100–11936%はいいいえ
$5,983 取引高 01/09
2026年の新しいパンデミックは？ 2026年の新しいパンデミックは？
6%
確率
はい いいえ
$621 取引高 31/12
Measles cases in U.S. by August 31?Measles cases in U.S. by August 31?
2800+85%はいいいえ
2825+83%はいいいえ
$1,767 取引高 31/08
Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___?Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___?
October 31, 20268%
December 31, 20268%
$3,528 取引高 01/01
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
<564%はいいいえ
5-634%はいいいえ
$499 取引高 31/12
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
7%
確率
はい いいえ
$30.7万 取引高 31/12
Cyclosporiasis cases in U.S. by August 31?Cyclosporiasis cases in U.S. by August 31?
10,000+99%はいいいえ
15,000+99%はいいいえ
$458 取引高 31/08
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
6%
確率
はい いいえ
$14.4万 取引高 31/03
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
1%
確率
はい いいえ
$81.1万 取引高 31/12
How many SpaceX launches in August 2026?How many SpaceX launches in August 2026?
1382%はいいいえ
1412%はいいいえ
$335 取引高 31/08
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
1.38–1.41ºC46%はいいいえ
1.42–1.45ºC21%はいいいえ
$3,331 取引高 01/09
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
2%
確率
はい いいえ
$11.7万 取引高 31/12
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
14–1643%はいいいえ
17–1936%はいいいえ
$250 取引高 31/12
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31? Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
9%
確率
はい いいえ
$1.2万 取引高 31/12
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?
December 31, 202836%はいいいえ
December 31, 202732%はいいいえ
$1,943 取引高 01/01
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
15%
確率
はい いいえ
$34.1万 取引高 31/12
8月のソウルの降水量は？8月のソウルの降水量は？
250-300mm45%はいいいえ
<150mm44%はいいいえ
$373 取引高 01/09
Natural Disaster in 2026? Natural Disaster in 2026?
28%
確率
はい いいえ
$24.2万 取引高 31/12
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
063%はいいいえ
126%はいいいえ
$115.6万 取引高 31/03
Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___?Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___?
December 31, 20261%
December 31, 202715%
$1.1万 取引高 01/01
Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...? Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
17%
確率
はい いいえ
$1.1万 取引高 31/12
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
3%
確率
はい いいえ
$57.9万 取引高 31/12
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
2%
確率
はい いいえ
$19.6万 取引高 31/12
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
13%
確率
はい いいえ
$14万 取引高 31/12
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?
December 31, 202768%はいいいえ
June 30, 202754%はいいいえ
$93.6万 取引高 01/01
100kt meteor strike in 2026? 100kt meteor strike in 2026?
5%
確率
はい いいえ
$8,915 取引高 31/12
5kt meteor strike in 2026? 5kt meteor strike in 2026?
29%
確率
はい いいえ
$10 取引高 31/12
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
38%
確率
はい いいえ
$8 取引高 31/12
8月のシアトルの降水量は？8月のシアトルの降水量は？
0.5"未満0.5"未満89%はいいいえ
0.5-1"0.5-1"11%はいいいえ
$234 取引高 01/09
How many SpaceX launches in 2026?How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
140-15950%はいいいえ
160-17936%はいいいえ
$335 取引高 31/12
8月のロンドンの降水量は？8月のロンドンの降水量は？
<30mm60%はいいいえ
30-40mm34%はいいいえ
$7,567 取引高 01/09
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026? Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
5%
確率
はい いいえ
$650 取引高 31/12
8月のニューヨークの降水量は？8月のニューヨークの降水量は？
6"超6"超66%はいいいえ
4-5"4-5"3%はいいいえ
$2,476 取引高 01/09
Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?
2900+93%
3000+91%
$1,767 取引高 30/09
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
10%
確率
はい いいえ
$10.2万 取引高 31/12
New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026? New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?
4%
確率
はい いいえ
$2.3万 取引高 31/12
Human moon landing in 2026? Human moon landing in 2026?
1%
確率
はい いいえ
$196.8万 取引高 31/12
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
SpaceX94%
OpenAI6%
$1.1万 取引高 31/12
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+88%はいいいえ
1200–12496%はいいいえ
$8.2万 取引高 10/01
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
9%
確率
はい いいえ
$1.7万 取引高 31/12
FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year? FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year?
89%
確率
はい いいえ
$2,555 取引高 31/12
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028? SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?
74%
確率
はい いいえ
$8 取引高 31/12
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...
October 31October 3169%はいいいえ
December 31December 3162%はいいいえ
$4,714 取引高
Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?
October 31October 3147%はいいいえ
August 30August 3042%はいいいえ
$1,442 取引高 01/01
2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest99%はいいいえ
2nd hottest1%はいいいえ
$1,788 取引高 01/09
Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?
October 31, 202653%はいいいえ
September 30, 202619%はいいいえ
$1,882 取引高 01/11
Will summer 2026 be France's hottest summer on record? Will summer 2026 be France's hottest summer on record?
97%
確率
はい いいえ
$1,050 取引高 01/10
Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
7.9 or below75%はいいいえ
8.0 – 8.19%はいいいえ
$2,360 取引高 04/01
Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026? Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026?
1%
確率
はい いいえ
$425 取引高 31/12
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