📈 预测市场：商业

100 活跃市场

Business prediction markets — stocks, interest rates and inflation

美联储2026年降息几次？美联储2026年降息几次？
0 (0 bps)86%是否
1 (25 bps)10%是否
$4,949.3万 成交量 31/12
Largest Company end of September?Largest Company end of September?
NVIDIANVIDIA88%是否
AppleApple9%是否
$20.1万 成交量 30/09
Largest Company end of August?Largest Company end of August?
NVIDIANVIDIA95%是否
AppleApple5%是否
$20.1万 成交量 31/08
2026 年按市值计算最大的 IPO？2026 年按市值计算最大的 IPO？
SpaceXSpaceX65%是否
AnthropicAnthropic36%是否
$553.1万 成交量 31/12
3rd Largest Company end of August?3rd Largest Company end of August?
AlphabetAlphabet95%是否
AppleApple4%是否
$9,268 成交量 31/08
Largest Company end of December 2026?Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIANVIDIA72%是否
AppleApple14%是否
$20.1万 成交量 31/12
IPOs before 2027?IPOs before 2027?
SHEINSHEIN98%是否
AnthropicAnthropic89%是否
$6,940 成交量 31/12
2nd Largest Company end of August?2nd Largest Company end of August?
AppleApple93%是否
AlphabetAlphabet6%是否
$7,429 成交量 31/08
美国在2026年底前陷入衰退？ 美国在2026年底前陷入衰退？
8%
概率
是 否
$4,452 成交量 31/12
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Anthropic94%
OpenAI6%
$31.9万 成交量 31/12
Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?
September 3034%是否
August 3110%是否
$2,113 成交量 01/10
GPU rental prices (B200) end of 2026?GPU rental prices (B200) end of 2026?
$6.00-$6.5023%是否
$5.50-$6.0020%是否
$4,468 成交量 31/12
在2027年前，哪些公司将被收购？在2027年前，哪些公司将被收购？
PayPalPayPal46%是否
MGM ResortsMGM Resorts34%是否
$1,818万 成交量 31/12
GPU rental prices (A100) end of October?GPU rental prices (A100) end of October?
$1.00-$1.2561%是否
$0.75-$1.0024%是否
$1,713 成交量 31/10
GPU rental prices (H200) end of August?GPU rental prices (H200) end of August?
$4.50-$5.0037%是否
$5.00-$5.5021%是否
$2,976 成交量 31/08
美联储在2027年前紧急降息？ 美联储在2027年前紧急降息？
7%
概率
是 否
$1,292 成交量 31/12
GPU rental prices (B200) end of October?GPU rental prices (B200) end of October?
$6.50+39%是否
$6.00-$6.5026%是否
$4,468 成交量 31/10
GPU rental prices (H200) end of October?GPU rental prices (H200) end of October?
$4.50-$5.0030%是否
$4.00-$4.5027%是否
$2,976 成交量 31/10
OpenAI在___前IPO？OpenAI在___前IPO？
December 31, 202616%是否
September 30, 20261%是否
$287.5万 成交量 31/12
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?
3%
概率
是 否
$1,238 成交量 31/12
GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of October?GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of October?
$0.45-$0.5035%是否
$0.50-$0.5530%是否
$2,224 成交量 31/10
GPU rental prices (H100) end of October?GPU rental prices (H100) end of October?
$2.75-$3.0025%是否
$3.00+24%是否
$2,124 成交量 31/10
GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of August?GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of August?
$0.50-$0.5554%是否
$0.45-$0.5032%是否
$2,224 成交量 31/08
2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?
AppleApple44%是否
AlphabetAlphabet32%是否
$7,429 成交量 31/12
Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?
WorkhorseWorkhorse24%是否
Beyond MeatBeyond Meat14%是否
$22.8万 成交量 31/12
GPU rental prices (B200) end of September?GPU rental prices (B200) end of September?
$6.50-$7.0037%是否
$5.50-$6.0022%是否
$4,468 成交量 30/09
Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO?Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO?
Goldman SachsGoldman Sachs62%是否
Morgan StanleyMorgan Stanley28%是否
$5.1万 成交量 31/12
GPU rental prices (H100) end of August?GPU rental prices (H100) end of August?
$2.75-$3.0039%是否
$3.00-$3.2526%是否
$2,124 成交量 31/08
美国在2027年底前陷入衰退？ 美国在2027年底前陷入衰退？
36%
概率
是 否
$4,452 成交量 31/12
Richest person on December 31, 2026?Richest person on December 31, 2026?
Elon MuskElon Musk97%是否
Warren BuffettWarren Buffett1%是否
$582 成交量 31/12
AI bubble burst by...?AI bubble burst by...?
December 31, 202550%是否
December 31, 202612%是否
$293.2万 成交量 01/01
GPU rental prices (H100) end of September?GPU rental prices (H100) end of September?
$2.50-$2.7526%是否
$2.75-$3.0019%是否
$2,124 成交量 30/09
GPU rental prices (B200) end of August?GPU rental prices (B200) end of August?
$6.50-$7.0038%是否
$6.00-$6.5025%是否
$4,468 成交量 31/08
Kraken在___前IPO？Kraken在___前IPO？
December 3150%是否
December 31, 202616%是否
$159.8万 成交量 01/01
Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?
<$4.00T28%是否
$4.00-$4.50T21%是否
$331 成交量 31/12
2nd Largest Company end of September?2nd Largest Company end of September?
AppleApple76%是否
AlphabetAlphabet20%是否
$7,429 成交量 30/09
Shein IPO Closing Market Cap Above __?Shein IPO Closing Market Cap Above __?
↑ 200B HKD72%是否
↑ 250B HKD31%是否
$1.4万 成交量 31/12
3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?
AlphabetAlphabet45%是否
AppleApple25%是否
$9,268 成交量 31/12
How high will Polymarket's mindshare go by December 31?How high will Polymarket's mindshare go by December 31?
75%76%是否
80%44%是否
$140 成交量 31/12
OpenAI IPO 收盘市值OpenAI IPO 收盘市值
1.5T+41%是否
1.25T–1.5T20%是否
$8,480 成交量 31/12
3rd Largest Company end of September?3rd Largest Company end of September?
AlphabetAlphabet69%是否
AppleApple19%是否
$9,268 成交量 30/09
JIO Platforms在___前IPO？JIO Platforms在___前IPO？
December 3166%是否
September 3027%是否
$1.2万 成交量 01/01
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?
26%
概率
是 否
$8.2万 成交量 31/12
CopperTech Metals IPO 收盘市值CopperTech Metals IPO 收盘市值
No IPO before September 202697%是否
$4.8B-$5.4B2%是否
$70 成交量 01/09
GPU rental prices (H200) hit___ in 2026?GPU rental prices (H200) hit___ in 2026?
↓ $4.0087%是否
↑ $6.0072%是否
$59 成交量 31/12
Which banks will fail by end of 2026?Which banks will fail by end of 2026?
US BankUS Bank3%是否
Deutsche BankDeutsche Bank3%是否
$51 成交量 31/12
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
OpenAIOpenAI30%是否
GoogleGoogle17%是否
$49 成交量 31/12
Deepseek在___前IPO？Deepseek在___前IPO？
December 31, 202776%是否
June 30, 202747%是否
$1.5万 成交量 01/01
GPU rental prices (H100) end of 2026?GPU rental prices (H100) end of 2026?
$2.50-$3.0034%是否
$2.00-$2.5016%是否
$2,124 成交量 31/12
Apple’s Market Cap end of 2026?Apple’s Market Cap end of 2026?
$4.50-$5.00T27%是否
$4.00-$4.50T21%是否
$39 成交量 31/12
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
$800B83%是否
$1T76%是否
$152.1万 成交量 31/12
GPU rental prices (B200) hit___ in 2026?GPU rental prices (B200) hit___ in 2026?
↓ $5.5080%是否
↓ $5.0077%是否
$25 成交量 31/12
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
80%
概率
是 否
$20 成交量 31/12
GPU rental prices (H200) end of September?GPU rental prices (H200) end of September?
$4.50-$5.0023%是否
$5.00-$5.5019%是否
$2,976 成交量 30/09
Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027? Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027?
14%
概率
是 否
$16 成交量 31/12
FIFA: UEFA to End FIFA Boycott By…?FIFA: UEFA to End FIFA Boycott By…?
September 21, 202644%是否
September 7, 202640%是否
$8,073 成交量
Anthropic acquired before 2027? Anthropic acquired before 2027?
3%
概率
是 否
$10 成交量 31/12
Alphabet’s Market Cap end of 2026?Alphabet’s Market Cap end of 2026?
$4.00-$4.50T25%是否
$4.50-$5.00T22%是否
$242 成交量 31/12
Which nicotine pouch brands will be bought by Big Tobacco?Which nicotine pouch brands will be bought by Big Tobacco?
Juice Head44%是否
Lucy42%是否
$654 成交量 31/12
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
38%
概率
是 否
$8 成交量 31/12
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
3.9%3.9%10%是否
3.6%3.6%5%是否
$22.5万 成交量 31/12
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31? Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?
17%
概率
是 否
$6 成交量 31/12
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026? Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?
56%
概率
是 否
$7.3万 成交量 31/12
Will fomo.family be acquired in 2026? Will fomo.family be acquired in 2026?
17%
概率
是 否
$1,438 成交量 01/01
Which CEOs will be out before 2027?Which CEOs will be out before 2027?
Andy Jassy - AmazonAndy Jassy - Amazon9%是否
Sundar Pichai - GoogleSundar Pichai - Google8%是否
$71.1万 成交量 31/12
Next CEO of JPMorgan Chase? Next CEO of JPMorgan Chase?
Marianne Lake50%是否
Doug Petno48%是否
$113 成交量 31/12
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028? SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?
74%
概率
是 否
$8 成交量 31/12
Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?
Goldman SachsGoldman Sachs76%是否
Morgan StanleyMorgan Stanley23%是否
$4.3万 成交量 31/12
Will McCormick merge with Unilever Foods by...?Will McCormick merge with Unilever Foods by...?
December 31, 202753%是否
June 30, 202751%是否
$606 成交量 01/01
Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?
JetBlueJetBlue9%是否
Frontier AirlinesFrontier Airlines7%是否
$14.9万 成交量 31/12
Ben Pasternak jailed? Ben Pasternak jailed?
3%
概率
是 否
$5.1万 成交量 31/12
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?
Up90%
Down10%
$2.6万 成交量 28/02
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?
18%
概率
是 否
$5.2万 成交量 31/12
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?
3%
概率
是 否
$10.4万 成交量 01/01
3rd richest person on December 31?3rd richest person on December 31?
Sergey BrinSergey Brin45%是否
Mark ZuckerbergMark Zuckerberg38%是否
$2.5万 成交量 31/12
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
SpaceX94%
OpenAI6%
$1.1万 成交量 31/12
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?
Clip-on device for clothing18%是否
Necklace11%是否
$41.2万 成交量 31/12
Strava IPO 收盘市值Strava IPO 收盘市值
7B–10B7B–10B29%是否
2B–3B2B–3B29%是否
$8.9万 成交量 31/12
GPU rental prices (A100) end of August?GPU rental prices (A100) end of August?
$1.00-$1.2594%是否
$1.25-$1.504%是否
$1,713 成交量 31/08
GPU rental prices (A100) end of September?GPU rental prices (A100) end of September?
$1.00-$1.2569%是否
$0.75-$1.0022%是否
$1,713 成交量 30/09
GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of September?GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of September?
$0.50-$0.5536%是否
$0.45-$0.5033%是否
$2,224 成交量 30/09
Bloomberg在___前IPO？Bloomberg在___前IPO？
December 31, 202747%是否
June 30, 202735%是否
$4,584 成交量 01/01
Will Coingecko be acquired in 2026? Will Coingecko be acquired in 2026?
14%
概率
是 否
$3.1万 成交量 01/01
Microsoft’s Market Cap end of 2026?Microsoft’s Market Cap end of 2026?
<$2.50T50%是否
$2.50-$3.00T50%是否
$0 成交量 31/12
Amazon’s Market Cap end of 2026?Amazon’s Market Cap end of 2026?
$2.50-$3.00T35%是否
$3.00-$3.50T26%是否
$1,659 成交量 31/12
Perplexity IPO 收盘市值Perplexity IPO 收盘市值
No IPO before 202865%是否
<20B8%是否
$14.7万 成交量 31/12
Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026? Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026?
1%
概率
是 否
$425 成交量 31/12
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
28%
概率
是 否
$30.4万 成交量 31/12
Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027? Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?
9%
概率
是 否
$3.2万 成交量 31/12
OpenAI acquired before 2027? OpenAI acquired before 2027?
4%
概率
是 否
$4,599 成交量 31/12
Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?
5%
概率
是 否
$1.7万 成交量 31/12
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?
14%
概率
是 否
$10万 成交量 31/12
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
15%
概率
是 否
$29.8万 成交量 31/12
Critical Discord Incident by...?Critical Discord Incident by...?
August 3115%
September 3057%
$4,679 成交量 01/10
Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap?Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap?
Anthropic72%
OpenAI28%
$9 成交量 31/12
Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by July 31?Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by July 31?
Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by July 31?1%
December 3145%
$732 成交量 01/01
Largest Indian Company at end of 2026?Largest Indian Company at end of 2026?
Reliance Industries Ltd85%是否
Bajaj Finance Ltd21%是否
$1.3万 成交量 31/12
Discord IPO 收盘市值Discord IPO 收盘市值
8–11B25%是否
No IPO by December 31, 202722%是否
$3.2万 成交量 31/12
Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by December 31?Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by December 31?
ICEICE24%是否
CBOECBOE11%是否
$1.3万 成交量 31/12
Discord IPO by __?Discord IPO by __?
December 3127%是否
November 3020%是否
$4,440 成交量 01/01
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