🔬 预测市场：科技与科学

59 活跃市场

Tech & Science prediction markets — AI, space and technology

2026 年按市值计算最大的 IPO？2026 年按市值计算最大的 IPO？
SpaceXSpaceX65%是否
AnthropicAnthropic36%是否
$553.1万 成交量 31/12
美国是否会在……之前确认外星人存在？美国是否会在……之前确认外星人存在？
December 314%是否
September 301%是否
$6,548.7万 成交量 01/01
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
October 3196%是否
September 3091%是否
$5,147 成交量 01/07
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
12%
概率
是 否
$3,895 成交量 31/12
How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
Fewer than 2043%是否
20 to 3439%是否
$3,034 成交量 31/03
8月香港降水量？8月香港降水量？
<425mm80%是否
475-500mm15%是否
$9,847 成交量 01/09
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
171%是否
225%是否
$336.3万 成交量 31/12
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
↑3k99%是否
↑3.5k95%是否
$1,767 成交量 31/12
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027? Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?
88%
概率
是 否
$4万 成交量 30/06
FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?
December 31, 202769%
June 30, 202715%
$4.8万 成交量 31/12
How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
80-9939%是否
100–11936%是否
$5,983 成交量 01/09
2026年新的大流行？ 2026年新的大流行？
6%
概率
是 否
$621 成交量 31/12
Measles cases in U.S. by August 31?Measles cases in U.S. by August 31?
2800+85%是否
2825+83%是否
$1,767 成交量 31/08
Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___?Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___?
October 31, 20268%
December 31, 20268%
$3,528 成交量 01/01
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
<564%是否
5-634%是否
$499 成交量 31/12
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
7%
概率
是 否
$30.7万 成交量 31/12
Cyclosporiasis cases in U.S. by August 31?Cyclosporiasis cases in U.S. by August 31?
10,000+99%是否
15,000+99%是否
$458 成交量 31/08
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
6%
概率
是 否
$14.4万 成交量 31/03
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
1%
概率
是 否
$81.1万 成交量 31/12
How many SpaceX launches in August 2026?How many SpaceX launches in August 2026?
1382%是否
1412%是否
$335 成交量 31/08
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
1.38–1.41ºC46%是否
1.42–1.45ºC21%是否
$3,331 成交量 01/09
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
2%
概率
是 否
$11.7万 成交量 31/12
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
14–1643%是否
17–1936%是否
$250 成交量 31/12
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31? Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
9%
概率
是 否
$1.2万 成交量 31/12
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?
December 31, 202836%是否
December 31, 202732%是否
$1,943 成交量 01/01
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
15%
概率
是 否
$34.1万 成交量 31/12
8月首尔降水量？8月首尔降水量？
250-300mm45%是否
<150mm44%是否
$373 成交量 01/09
Natural Disaster in 2026? Natural Disaster in 2026?
28%
概率
是 否
$24.2万 成交量 31/12
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
063%是否
126%是否
$115.6万 成交量 31/03
Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___?Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___?
December 31, 20261%
December 31, 202715%
$1.1万 成交量 01/01
Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...? Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
17%
概率
是 否
$1.1万 成交量 31/12
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
3%
概率
是 否
$57.9万 成交量 31/12
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
2%
概率
是 否
$19.6万 成交量 31/12
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
13%
概率
是 否
$14万 成交量 31/12
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?
December 31, 202768%是否
June 30, 202754%是否
$93.6万 成交量 01/01
100kt meteor strike in 2026? 100kt meteor strike in 2026?
5%
概率
是 否
$8,915 成交量 31/12
5kt meteor strike in 2026? 5kt meteor strike in 2026?
29%
概率
是 否
$10 成交量 31/12
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
38%
概率
是 否
$8 成交量 31/12
8月西雅图降水量？8月西雅图降水量？
少于0.5"少于0.5"89%是否
0.5-1"0.5-1"11%是否
$234 成交量 01/09
How many SpaceX launches in 2026?How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
140-15950%是否
160-17936%是否
$335 成交量 31/12
8月伦敦降水量？8月伦敦降水量？
<30mm60%是否
30-40mm34%是否
$7,567 成交量 01/09
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026? Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
5%
概率
是 否
$650 成交量 31/12
8月纽约降水量？8月纽约降水量？
多于6"多于6"66%是否
4-5"4-5"3%是否
$2,476 成交量 01/09
Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?
2900+93%
3000+91%
$1,767 成交量 30/09
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
10%
概率
是 否
$10.2万 成交量 31/12
New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026? New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?
4%
概率
是 否
$2.3万 成交量 31/12
Human moon landing in 2026? Human moon landing in 2026?
1%
概率
是 否
$196.8万 成交量 31/12
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
SpaceX94%
OpenAI6%
$1.1万 成交量 31/12
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+88%是否
1200–12496%是否
$8.2万 成交量 10/01
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
9%
概率
是 否
$1.7万 成交量 31/12
FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year? FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year?
89%
概率
是 否
$2,555 成交量 31/12
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028? SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?
74%
概率
是 否
$8 成交量 31/12
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...
October 31October 3169%是否
December 31December 3162%是否
$4,714 成交量
Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?
October 31October 3147%是否
August 30August 3042%是否
$1,442 成交量 01/01
2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest99%是否
2nd hottest1%是否
$1,788 成交量 01/09
Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?
October 31, 202653%是否
September 30, 202619%是否
$1,882 成交量 01/11
Will summer 2026 be France's hottest summer on record? Will summer 2026 be France's hottest summer on record?
97%
概率
是 否
$1,050 成交量 01/10
Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
7.9 or below75%是否
8.0 – 8.19%是否
$2,360 成交量 04/01
Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026? Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026?
1%
概率
是 否
$425 成交量 31/12
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