This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
August 17
$8.6K Volume
98%
August 21
$6.1K Volume
2%
August 22
$433 Volume
10%
August 23
$2.3K Volume
7%
August 24
$4.9K Volume
93%
August 25
$2.6K Volume
12%
August 26
$734 Volume
10%
August 27
$2K Volume
91%
August 28
$2.2K Volume
11%
August 29
$2.6K Volume
7%
August 30
$2.1K Volume
34%
August 31
$3.7K Volume
13%
Resolved 27
July 24
$9.6K Volume
Yes
July 25
$1.9K Volume
No
July 26
$9.5K Volume
No
July 27
$1.4K Volume
No
July 28
$6.9K Volume
No
July 29
$1.9K Volume
No
July 30
$2.7K Volume
No
July 31
$2.4K Volume
No
August 1
$2.6K Volume
No
August 2
$2.8K Volume
No
August 3
$4.1K Volume
No
August 4
$4.5K Volume
Yes
August 5
$97.2K Volume
No
August 6
$3.3K Volume
No
August 7
$1.9K Volume
No
August 8
$15.3K Volume
No
August 9
$7.1K Volume
No
August 10
$2.4K Volume
No
August 11
$10.7K Volume
Yes
August 12
$2.5K Volume
No
August 13
$1.2K Volume
No
August 14
$6.4K Volume
No
August 15
$6.5K Volume
No
August 16
$3.5K Volume
No
August 18
$2.8K Volume
No
August 19
$3.2K Volume
No
August 20
$4.1K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Houthis successfully target shipping on?
August 24 dominates the field at 87%; the nearest challenger, August 17, trades at just 80%. The order book treats this as nearly decided.
What do traders predict for Houthis successfully target shipping on?
Traders price August 24 at a 87% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the Houthis successfully target shipping on market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Aug 2026 (8 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Houthis successfully target shipping on?
Total turnover stands at $7.2K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Houthis successfully target shipping on on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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