This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any Gemini model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-2.5-pro, gemini-3-pro, or gemini-3.1-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
1480+
$14K Volume
90%
1490+
$19.5K Volume
72%
1495+
$26.9K Volume
70%
1500+
$24.6K Volume
39%
1510+
$25.2K Volume
16%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
1480+ dominates the field at 86%; the nearest challenger, 1490+, trades at just 71%. The order book treats this as nearly decided.
What do traders predict for Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
With 86% implied for 1480+, the market has largely made up its mind. Still a forecast, not a result: prices react instantly if the story changes.
How much money is trading on Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
Traders have put $110.2K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
Similar Markets
November 3081%YesNo
October 3158%YesNo
No release by November 146%YesNo
September 28–October 421%YesNo
No release by September 3069%YesNo
September 305%YesNo
No release by August 3194%YesNo
August 272%YesNo
50%+71%YesNo
55%+46%YesNo
40%+80%YesNo
45%+78%YesNo
October 3158%YesNo
September 3038%YesNo
35%+96%YesNo
40%+57%YesNo
