Mercados de Previsão de Trump

Os mercados de previsão de Trump estão entre os mais ativos do Polymarket: mandato, processos legais, política externa (Ucrânia, China, Oriente Médio), política interna e aprovação geral. Os volumes superam centenas de milhões de dólares.

Esses mercados reagem fortemente a cada declaração importante, via Truth Social, entrevistas ou anúncios da Casa Branca. A cobertura de notícias em tempo real cria oportunidades de negociação.

100 mercados ativos
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
18%
chance
Sim Não
$9,8 mi Volume 01/01
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%SimNão
August 25August 2599%SimNão
$2,6 mi Volume 30/09
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3173%SimNão
October 3152%SimNão
$19,4 mi Volume 01/01
Quando será a próxima rodada de negociações de paz entre EUA e Irã...?Quando será a próxima rodada de negociações de paz entre EUA e Irã...?
March 31, 202765%SimNão
December 31, 202652%SimNão
$106,9 mil Volume 01/04
Os EUA invadirão o Irã antes de 2027? Os EUA invadirão o Irã antes de 2027?
17%
chance
Sim Não
$90,3 mil Volume 31/12
O regime iraniano cairá antes de 2027? O regime iraniano cairá antes de 2027?
7%
chance
Sim Não
$87,1 mil Volume 31/12
Russia nuclear test by...?Russia nuclear test by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20266%SimNão
September 30, 2026September 30, 20261%SimNão
$6,2 mi Volume 01/01
Decisão do Fed em outubro?Decisão do Fed em outubro?
No change72%SimNão
25 bps increase25%SimNão
$2,1 mi Volume 28/10
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
September 3017%SimNão
September 158%SimNão
$673,3 mil Volume 01/10
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 314%
August 314%
$274,2 mil Volume 01/09
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Steve WitkoffSteve Witkoff45%SimNão
Mohammad Bagher GhalibafMohammad Bagher Ghalibaf41%SimNão
$22,2 mil Volume 31/12
O Irã concordará em encerrar o enriquecimento de urânio até 31 de dezembro? O Irã concordará em encerrar o enriquecimento de urânio até 31 de dezembro?
14%
chance
Sim Não
$22,1 mil Volume 31/12
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
September 3040%SimNão
August 3112%SimNão
$914,9 mil Volume 01/10
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3124%SimNão
October 3115%SimNão
$5,9 mi Volume 01/01
Onde será a próxima rodada de negociações de paz entre EUA e Irã...?Onde será a próxima rodada de negociações de paz entre EUA e Irã...?
Sem reunião até 30 de setembro74%SimNão
Suíça10%SimNão
$17,5 mil Volume 30/09
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
ChinaChina52%SimNão
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3148%SimNão
$16,8 mil Volume 31/12
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
August 2494%SimNão
August 3192%SimNão
$15,4 mil Volume 01/09
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
chance
Sim Não
$29 mil Volume 31/12
Trump out as President by August 31? Trump out as President by August 31?
1%
chance
Sim Não
$29 mil Volume 31/08
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Scott JenningsScott Jennings25%SimNão
Anna KellyAnna Kelly17%SimNão
$149,6 mil Volume 31/12
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
AlibabaAlibaba22%SimNão
CATLCATL19%SimNão
$186,9 mil Volume 30/06
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?
200+88%SimNão
180-19912%SimNão
$11,5 mil Volume Encerra hoje
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman77%SimNão
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin48%SimNão
$10,7 mil Volume 31/12
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
4%
chance
Sim Não
$7,5 mil Volume 31/12
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
86%
chance
Sim Não
$7,2 mil Volume 31/12
Xi Jinping visitará os EUA antes de 2027?Xi Jinping visitará os EUA antes de 2027?
December 3197%SimNão
October 3196%SimNão
$739,5 mil Volume 31/12
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro86%SimNão
Delcy Rodríguez10%SimNão
$95,8 mi Volume 31/12
Decisão do Fed em dezembro?Decisão do Fed em dezembro?
No change61%SimNão
25 bps increase29%SimNão
$2,1 mi Volume 09/12
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4727%SimNão
4914%SimNão
$2,9 mi Volume 03/11
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
August 31, 20261%
December 31, 202610%
$4 mil Volume 01/01
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
6%
chance
Sim Não
$260,1 mil Volume 31/12
What will Trump say this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Trump say this week? (August 24 - August 30)
God90%SimNão
Boom / Booming81%SimNão
$5,4 mil Volume 7 dias restantes
US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday? US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?
62%
chance
Sim Não
$5,8 mil Volume Encerra hoje
Decisão do Fed em janeiro?Decisão do Fed em janeiro?
No change61%SimNão
25 bps increase22%SimNão
$2,1 mi Volume 27/01
Who will be arrested before 2027?Who will be arrested before 2027?
Mahmoud Khalil30%SimNão
John Brennan18%SimNão
$389 mil Volume
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?
1220%SimNão
1019%SimNão
$10,5 mil Volume 03/11
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 316%SimNão
September 302%SimNão
$29,1 mi Volume 01/01
What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?
Iran 5+ times63%SimNão
Go ahead 5+ times58%SimNão
$3,3 mil Volume 31/08
What will Trump say in August?What will Trump say in August?
Movie Star52%SimNão
Green New Scam52%SimNão
$2,9 mil Volume 31/08
Who will Trump meet with in August?Who will Trump meet with in August?
Elon MuskElon Musk11%SimNão
Giorgia MeloniGiorgia Meloni7%SimNão
$10,7 mil Volume 31/08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
June 30, 202755%SimNão
March 31, 202744%SimNão
$6 mi Volume 01/07
What will Scott Bessent say during press conference?What will Scott Bessent say during press conference?
Oil / Gas / Gasoline86%SimNão
Regime80%SimNão
$2,5 mil Volume Encerra hoje
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?
554%SimNão
618%SimNão
$11,9 mil Volume 03/11
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?
30+7%SimNão
40+2%SimNão
$2,4 mil Volume 31/08
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?
September 3086%SimNão
September 1578%SimNão
$2,6 mil Volume 01/10
What will JD Vance say during remarks in Maine?What will JD Vance say during remarks in Maine?
Trump 10+ times99%SimNão
Illegal Alien99%SimNão
$2,2 mil Volume Encerra hoje
What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?
Good Morning80%SimNão
Productivity77%SimNão
$45,6 mil Volume 5 dias restantes
Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?
December 31, 202610%
June 30, 202724%
$43,4 mil Volume 01/07
Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by Aug 28? Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by Aug 28?
23%
chance
Sim Não
$3,5 mil Volume 5 dias restantes
Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?
July 171%
December 3126%
$188,8 mil Volume 01/01
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 21 - August 28, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 21 - August 28, 2026?
200+61%SimNão
180-19920%SimNão
$11,5 mil Volume 4 dias restantes
How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?
4863%SimNão
4717%SimNão
$7,2 mil Volume 03/11
When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?
September 3063%SimNão
September 1132%SimNão
$57,5 mil Volume 01/10
Who will Trump publicly praise in August?Who will Trump publicly praise in August?
Xi JinpingXi Jinping74%SimNão
Doug FordDoug Ford42%SimNão
$1,5 mil Volume 31/08
Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?
December 31, 20265%
June 30, 202711%
$26,1 mil Volume 01/07
What will Trump say during Rose Garden event?What will Trump say during Rose Garden event?
Child / Children 5+ times92%SimNão
College87%SimNão
$1,4 mil Volume Encerra hoje
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 3117%SimNão
October 318%SimNão
$1,1 mi Volume 31/12
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 25 - September 1, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 25 - September 1, 2026?
200+53%SimNão
180-19926%SimNão
$11,5 mil Volume 01/09
Who will Trump speak to in August?Who will Trump speak to in August?
Friedrich MerzFriedrich Merz55%SimNão
Elon MuskElon Musk44%SimNão
$1,4 mil Volume 31/08
Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?
Candace OwensCandace Owens27%SimNão
Kaitlan CollinsKaitlan Collins27%SimNão
$1,3 mil Volume 31/08
Weed rescheduled by...?Weed rescheduled by...?
December 3118%SimNão
September 3016%SimNão
$1,3 mil Volume 01/01
What will Trump post this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Trump post this week? (August 24 - August 30)
Communist / Communism90%SimNão
Crime88%SimNão
$1,6 mil Volume 7 dias restantes
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
3.75%45%SimNão
4.0%31%SimNão
$6,8 mi Volume 09/12
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?
2%
chance
Sim Não
$1,7 mil Volume 31/08
Kash Patel fora do cargo até...?Kash Patel fora do cargo até...?
December 3125%SimNão
September 308%SimNão
$1,7 mi Volume 01/01
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
IrelandIreland99%SimNão
AlemanhaAlemanha39%SimNão
$1,2 mil Volume 31/12
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Ryan SalameRyan Salame23%SimNão
Daniel PennyDaniel Penny21%SimNão
$428,5 mil Volume 31/12
Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?
285M56%SimNão
270M1%SimNão
$59,3 mil Volume 09/09
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
December 313%SimNão
August 311%SimNão
$6,3 mi Volume 01/01
Netanyahu arrested by…?Netanyahu arrested by…?
December 316%SimNão
September 302%SimNão
$22,3 mil Volume 01/01
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
6%
chance
Sim Não
$64,7 mil Volume 31/12
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?
December 31, 202621%
June 30, 20262%
$55,5 mil Volume 01/01
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027No meeting before 202794%SimNão
SuíçaSuíça3%SimNão
$904 Volume 31/12
Trump meets with Putin by...?Trump meets with Putin by...?
December 3148%SimNão
September 302%SimNão
$152,1 mil Volume 01/01
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
16%
chance
Sim Não
$839 Volume 31/12
Trump approval rating on August 28?Trump approval rating on August 28?
38.0–38.435%SimNão
38.5–38.930%SimNão
$779 Volume 5 dias restantes
How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?
173%SimNão
221%SimNão
$3,9 mil Volume 03/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?
433%SimNão
532%SimNão
$6,1 mil Volume 03/11
Will Trump launch a coin by ___?Will Trump launch a coin by ___?
December 31, 202619%
March 31, 20266%
$89 mil Volume 01/01
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Cuban regime falls in 2026?
13%
chance
Sim Não
$1,6 mi Volume 31/12
Which companies will the US take a stake in?Which companies will the US take a stake in?
GlobalFoundries89%SimNão
Rigetti79%SimNão
$173,1 mil Volume 31/12
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
October 3150%SimNão
December 3150%SimNão
$2,9 mi Volume 01/01
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
December 3128%SimNão
September 307%SimNão
$6,4 mi Volume 01/01
US strike on Mexico by...?US strike on Mexico by...?
December 3112%SimNão
January 311%SimNão
$3,4 mi Volume 01/01
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
2%
chance
Sim Não
$547 Volume 31/12
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
India18%SimNão
Israel16%SimNão
$504 Volume 31/12
Maduro Prison Time?Maduro Prison Time?
No prison time39%SimNão
60+33%SimNão
$676,4 mil Volume 31/12
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?
December 31, 202629%SimNão
August 31, 20263%SimNão
$87,4 mil Volume 01/01
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
7%
chance
Sim Não
$10,6 mi Volume 31/12
O Irã concorda em entregar seu estoque de urânio enriquecido até...?O Irã concorda em entregar seu estoque de urânio enriquecido até...?
31 de dezembro8%SimNão
31 de outubro3%SimNão
$17,8 mi Volume 01/01
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
52%
chance
Sim Não
$306,9 mil Volume 31/12
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31? Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?
20%
chance
Sim Não
$7,4 mil Volume 7 dias restantes
How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
35%35%25%SimNão
30%30%6%SimNão
$386 Volume 31/12
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?
342%SimNão
226%SimNão
$4,7 mil Volume 03/11
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 313%SimNão
June 263%SimNão
$1,6 mi Volume 01/09
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
67%
chance
Sim Não
$419 Volume 20/01
Fed abolished before 2027? Fed abolished before 2027?
5%
chance
Sim Não
$352 Volume 31/12
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
October 3172%SimNão
September 3061%SimNão
$347 Volume 01/11
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?
1%
chance
Sim Não
$107,6 mil Volume 31/12
Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election? Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election?
No Endorsement65%SimNão
Likud31%SimNão
$29,3 mil Volume 28/10
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FAQ dos Mercados de Trump

Quais mercados de Trump estão ao vivo agora?

Aprovação anual, resultados de políticas específicas, processos legais, resultados de negociações internacionais e decisões de nomeações de alto escalão.

O que move os preços?

Declarações de Trump (especialmente Truth Social), anúncios oficiais da Casa Branca, decisões judiciais e ações do Congresso. As reações são muito rápidas.

Como gerencio o risco nos mercados de Trump?

Alta volatilidade: construa posições gradualmente, evite sobrecarga em um único mercado e verifique a profundidade do livro de ofertas antes de entrar.

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500+
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