Mercati di previsione su Trump

I mercati di previsione su Trump sono tra i più attivi di Polymarket: durata del mandato, procedimenti giudiziari, politica estera (Ucraina, Cina, Medio Oriente), politica interna e gradimento generale. I volumi superano le centinaia di milioni di dollari.

Questi mercati reagiscono con forza a ogni dichiarazione importante, tramite Truth Social, interviste o annunci della Casa Bianca. La copertura delle notizie in tempo reale crea opportunità di trading.

100 mercati attivi
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
18%
probabilità
Sì No
$9,8 Mln Volume 01/01
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%SìNo
August 25August 2599%SìNo
$2,6 Mln Volume 30/09
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3173%SìNo
October 3152%SìNo
$19,4 Mln Volume 01/01
Prossimo round di colloqui di pace USA-Iran entro...?Prossimo round di colloqui di pace USA-Iran entro...?
March 31, 202765%SìNo
December 31, 202652%SìNo
$106.948 Volume 01/04
Gli Stati Uniti invaderanno l'Iran prima del 2027? Gli Stati Uniti invaderanno l'Iran prima del 2027?
17%
probabilità
Sì No
$90.284 Volume 31/12
Il regime iraniano cadrà prima del 2027? Il regime iraniano cadrà prima del 2027?
7%
probabilità
Sì No
$87.100 Volume 31/12
Russia nuclear test by...?Russia nuclear test by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20266%SìNo
September 30, 2026September 30, 20261%SìNo
$6,2 Mln Volume 01/01
Decisione della Fed a ottobre?Decisione della Fed a ottobre?
No change72%SìNo
25 bps increase25%SìNo
$2,1 Mln Volume 28/10
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
September 3017%SìNo
September 158%SìNo
$673.279 Volume 01/10
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 314%
August 314%
$274.249 Volume 01/09
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Steve WitkoffSteve Witkoff45%SìNo
Mohammad Bagher GhalibafMohammad Bagher Ghalibaf41%SìNo
$22.245 Volume 31/12
L'Iran accetterà di fermare l'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 31 dicembre? L'Iran accetterà di fermare l'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 31 dicembre?
14%
probabilità
Sì No
$22.097 Volume 31/12
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
September 3040%SìNo
August 3112%SìNo
$914.858 Volume 01/10
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3124%SìNo
October 3115%SìNo
$5,9 Mln Volume 01/01
Dove si svolgerà il prossimo round di colloqui di pace USA-Iran entro...?Dove si svolgerà il prossimo round di colloqui di pace USA-Iran entro...?
Nessuna riunione entro il 30 settembre74%SìNo
Svizzera10%SìNo
$17.539 Volume 30/09
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
ChinaChina52%SìNo
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3148%SìNo
$16.812 Volume 31/12
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
August 2494%SìNo
August 3192%SìNo
$15.383 Volume 01/09
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
probabilità
Sì No
$29.043 Volume 31/12
Trump out as President by August 31? Trump out as President by August 31?
1%
probabilità
Sì No
$29.043 Volume 31/08
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Scott JenningsScott Jennings25%SìNo
Anna KellyAnna Kelly17%SìNo
$149.599 Volume 31/12
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
AlibabaAlibaba22%SìNo
CATLCATL19%SìNo
$186.940 Volume 30/06
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?
200+88%SìNo
180-19912%SìNo
$11.504 Volume Termina oggi
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman77%SìNo
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin48%SìNo
$10.676 Volume 31/12
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
4%
probabilità
Sì No
$7.484 Volume 31/12
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
86%
probabilità
Sì No
$7.221 Volume 31/12
Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?
December 3197%SìNo
October 3196%SìNo
$739.481 Volume 31/12
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro86%SìNo
Delcy Rodríguez10%SìNo
$95,8 Mln Volume 31/12
Decisione della Fed a dicembre?Decisione della Fed a dicembre?
No change61%SìNo
25 bps increase29%SìNo
$2,1 Mln Volume 09/12
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4727%SìNo
4914%SìNo
$2,9 Mln Volume 03/11
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
August 31, 20261%
December 31, 202610%
$3.988 Volume 01/01
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
6%
probabilità
Sì No
$260.127 Volume 31/12
What will Trump say this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Trump say this week? (August 24 - August 30)
God90%SìNo
Boom / Booming81%SìNo
$5.378 Volume 7 giorni rimanenti
US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday? US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?
62%
probabilità
Sì No
$5.842 Volume Termina oggi
Decisione della Fed a gennaio?Decisione della Fed a gennaio?
No change61%SìNo
25 bps increase22%SìNo
$2,1 Mln Volume 27/01
Who will be arrested before 2027?Who will be arrested before 2027?
Mahmoud Khalil30%SìNo
John Brennan18%SìNo
$389.011 Volume
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?
1220%SìNo
1019%SìNo
$10.489 Volume 03/11
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 316%SìNo
September 302%SìNo
$29,1 Mln Volume 01/01
What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?
Iran 5+ times63%SìNo
Go ahead 5+ times58%SìNo
$3.274 Volume 31/08
What will Trump say in August?What will Trump say in August?
Movie Star52%SìNo
Green New Scam52%SìNo
$2.867 Volume 31/08
Who will Trump meet with in August?Who will Trump meet with in August?
Elon MuskElon Musk11%SìNo
Giorgia MeloniGiorgia Meloni7%SìNo
$10.676 Volume 31/08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
June 30, 202755%SìNo
March 31, 202744%SìNo
$6 Mln Volume 01/07
What will Scott Bessent say during press conference?What will Scott Bessent say during press conference?
Oil / Gas / Gasoline86%SìNo
Regime80%SìNo
$2.491 Volume Termina oggi
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?
554%SìNo
618%SìNo
$11.891 Volume 03/11
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?
30+7%SìNo
40+2%SìNo
$2.356 Volume 31/08
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?
September 3086%SìNo
September 1578%SìNo
$2.558 Volume 01/10
What will JD Vance say during remarks in Maine?What will JD Vance say during remarks in Maine?
Trump 10+ times99%SìNo
Illegal Alien99%SìNo
$2.221 Volume Termina oggi
What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?
Good Morning80%SìNo
Productivity77%SìNo
$45.590 Volume 5 giorni rimanenti
Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?
December 31, 202610%
June 30, 202724%
$43.408 Volume 01/07
Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by Aug 28? Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by Aug 28?
23%
probabilità
Sì No
$3.541 Volume 5 giorni rimanenti
Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?
July 171%
December 3126%
$188.781 Volume 01/01
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 21 - August 28, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 21 - August 28, 2026?
200+61%SìNo
180-19920%SìNo
$11.504 Volume 4 giorni rimanenti
How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?
4863%SìNo
4717%SìNo
$7.155 Volume 03/11
When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?
September 3063%SìNo
September 1132%SìNo
$57.457 Volume 01/10
Who will Trump publicly praise in August?Who will Trump publicly praise in August?
Xi JinpingXi Jinping74%SìNo
Doug FordDoug Ford42%SìNo
$1.538 Volume 31/08
Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?
December 31, 20265%
June 30, 202711%
$26.139 Volume 01/07
What will Trump say during Rose Garden event?What will Trump say during Rose Garden event?
Child / Children 5+ times92%SìNo
College87%SìNo
$1.448 Volume Termina oggi
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 3117%SìNo
October 318%SìNo
$1,1 Mln Volume 31/12
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 25 - September 1, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 25 - September 1, 2026?
200+53%SìNo
180-19926%SìNo
$11.504 Volume 01/09
Who will Trump speak to in August?Who will Trump speak to in August?
Friedrich MerzFriedrich Merz55%SìNo
Elon MuskElon Musk44%SìNo
$1.429 Volume 31/08
Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?
Candace OwensCandace Owens27%SìNo
Kaitlan CollinsKaitlan Collins27%SìNo
$1.338 Volume 31/08
Weed rescheduled by...?Weed rescheduled by...?
December 3118%SìNo
September 3016%SìNo
$1.338 Volume 01/01
What will Trump post this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Trump post this week? (August 24 - August 30)
Communist / Communism90%SìNo
Crime88%SìNo
$1.646 Volume 7 giorni rimanenti
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
3.75%45%SìNo
4.0%31%SìNo
$6,8 Mln Volume 09/12
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?
2%
probabilità
Sì No
$1.677 Volume 31/08
Kash Patel fuori dalla carica entro...?Kash Patel fuori dalla carica entro...?
December 3125%SìNo
September 308%SìNo
$1,7 Mln Volume 01/01
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
IrelandIreland99%SìNo
GermaniaGermania39%SìNo
$1.189 Volume 31/12
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Ryan SalameRyan Salame23%SìNo
Daniel PennyDaniel Penny21%SìNo
$428.496 Volume 31/12
Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?
285M56%SìNo
270M1%SìNo
$59.254 Volume 09/09
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
December 313%SìNo
August 311%SìNo
$6,3 Mln Volume 01/01
Netanyahu arrested by…?Netanyahu arrested by…?
December 316%SìNo
September 302%SìNo
$22.338 Volume 01/01
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
6%
probabilità
Sì No
$64.734 Volume 31/12
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?
December 31, 202621%
June 30, 20262%
$55.486 Volume 01/01
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027No meeting before 202794%SìNo
SvizzeraSvizzera3%SìNo
$904 Volume 31/12
Trump meets with Putin by...?Trump meets with Putin by...?
December 3148%SìNo
September 302%SìNo
$152.131 Volume 01/01
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
16%
probabilità
Sì No
$839 Volume 31/12
Trump approval rating on August 28?Trump approval rating on August 28?
38.0–38.435%SìNo
38.5–38.930%SìNo
$779 Volume 5 giorni rimanenti
How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?
173%SìNo
221%SìNo
$3.934 Volume 03/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?
433%SìNo
532%SìNo
$6.143 Volume 03/11
Will Trump launch a coin by ___?Will Trump launch a coin by ___?
December 31, 202619%
March 31, 20266%
$89.000 Volume 01/01
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Cuban regime falls in 2026?
13%
probabilità
Sì No
$1,6 Mln Volume 31/12
Which companies will the US take a stake in?Which companies will the US take a stake in?
GlobalFoundries89%SìNo
Rigetti79%SìNo
$173.072 Volume 31/12
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
October 3150%SìNo
December 3150%SìNo
$2,9 Mln Volume 01/01
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
December 3128%SìNo
September 307%SìNo
$6,4 Mln Volume 01/01
US strike on Mexico by...?US strike on Mexico by...?
December 3112%SìNo
January 311%SìNo
$3,4 Mln Volume 01/01
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
2%
probabilità
Sì No
$547 Volume 31/12
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
India18%SìNo
Israel16%SìNo
$504 Volume 31/12
Maduro Prison Time?Maduro Prison Time?
No prison time39%SìNo
60+33%SìNo
$676.386 Volume 31/12
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?
December 31, 202629%SìNo
August 31, 20263%SìNo
$87.384 Volume 01/01
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
7%
probabilità
Sì No
$10,6 Mln Volume 31/12
L'Iran accetta di consegnare il deposito di uranio arricchito entro...?L'Iran accetta di consegnare il deposito di uranio arricchito entro...?
31 dicembre8%SìNo
31 ottobre3%SìNo
$17,8 Mln Volume 01/01
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
52%
probabilità
Sì No
$306.890 Volume 31/12
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31? Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?
20%
probabilità
Sì No
$7.419 Volume 7 giorni rimanenti
How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
35%35%25%SìNo
30%30%6%SìNo
$386 Volume 31/12
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?
342%SìNo
226%SìNo
$4.738 Volume 03/11
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 313%SìNo
June 263%SìNo
$1,6 Mln Volume 01/09
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
67%
probabilità
Sì No
$419 Volume 20/01
Fed abolished before 2027? Fed abolished before 2027?
5%
probabilità
Sì No
$352 Volume 31/12
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
October 3172%SìNo
September 3061%SìNo
$347 Volume 01/11
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?
1%
probabilità
Sì No
$107.559 Volume 31/12
Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election? Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election?
No Endorsement65%SìNo
Likud31%SìNo
$29.298 Volume 28/10
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FAQ sui mercati su Trump

Quali mercati su Trump sono attivi ora?

Gradimento annuale, esiti di politiche specifiche, procedimenti giudiziari, esiti di negoziati internazionali e decisioni sulle nomine di alto livello.

Cosa muove i prezzi?

Le dichiarazioni di Trump (soprattutto su Truth Social), gli annunci ufficiali della Casa Bianca, le sentenze dei tribunali e l'azione del Congresso. Le reazioni sono molto rapide.

Come gestisco il rischio nei mercati su Trump?

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