Mercados de Predicción de Trump

Los mercados de predicción de Trump son algunos de los más activos de Polymarket: mandato, procedimientos legales, política exterior (Ucrania, China, Medio Oriente), política doméstica y aprobación general. Los volúmenes superan los cientos de millones de dólares.

Estos mercados reaccionan fuertemente a cada declaración importante, ya sea a través de Truth Social, entrevistas o anuncios de la Casa Blanca. La cobertura de noticias en tiempo real crea oportunidades de negociación.

100 mercados activos
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
18%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$9,8 M Vol 01/01
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%SíNo
August 25August 2599%SíNo
$2,6 M Vol 30/09
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3173%SíNo
October 3152%SíNo
$19,4 M Vol 01/01
¿Cuándo será la próxima ronda de negociaciones de paz entre EE. UU. e Irán...?¿Cuándo será la próxima ronda de negociaciones de paz entre EE. UU. e Irán...?
March 31, 202765%SíNo
December 31, 202652%SíNo
$106,9 mil Vol 01/04
¿Invadirá EE. UU. Irán antes de 2027? ¿Invadirá EE. UU. Irán antes de 2027?
17%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$90,3 mil Vol 31/12
¿Caerá el régimen iraní antes de 2027? ¿Caerá el régimen iraní antes de 2027?
7%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$87,1 mil Vol 31/12
Russia nuclear test by...?Russia nuclear test by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20266%SíNo
September 30, 2026September 30, 20261%SíNo
$6,2 M Vol 01/01
¿Decisión de la Fed en octubre?¿Decisión de la Fed en octubre?
No change72%SíNo
25 bps increase25%SíNo
$2,1 M Vol 28/10
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
September 3017%SíNo
September 158%SíNo
$673,3 mil Vol 01/10
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 314%
August 314%
$274,2 mil Vol 01/09
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Steve WitkoffSteve Witkoff45%SíNo
Mohammad Bagher GhalibafMohammad Bagher Ghalibaf41%SíNo
$22,2 mil Vol 31/12
¿Irán aceptará detener el enriquecimiento de uranio antes del 31 de diciembre? ¿Irán aceptará detener el enriquecimiento de uranio antes del 31 de diciembre?
14%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$22,1 mil Vol 31/12
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
September 3040%SíNo
August 3112%SíNo
$914,9 mil Vol 01/10
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3124%SíNo
October 3115%SíNo
$5,9 M Vol 01/01
¿Dónde se llevará a cabo la próxima ronda de negociaciones de paz entre EE. UU. e Irán...?¿Dónde se llevará a cabo la próxima ronda de negociaciones de paz entre EE. UU. e Irán...?
Sin reunión hasta el 30 de septiembre74%SíNo
Suiza10%SíNo
$17,5 mil Vol 30/09
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
ChinaChina52%SíNo
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3148%SíNo
$16,8 mil Vol 31/12
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
August 2494%SíNo
August 3192%SíNo
$15,4 mil Vol 01/09
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$29 mil Vol 31/12
Trump out as President by August 31? Trump out as President by August 31?
1%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$29 mil Vol 31/08
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Scott JenningsScott Jennings25%SíNo
Anna KellyAnna Kelly17%SíNo
$149,6 mil Vol 31/12
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
AlibabaAlibaba22%SíNo
CATLCATL19%SíNo
$186,9 mil Vol 30/06
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?
200+88%SíNo
180-19912%SíNo
$11,5 mil Vol Termina hoy
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman77%SíNo
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin48%SíNo
$10,7 mil Vol 31/12
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
4%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$7,5 mil Vol 31/12
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
86%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$7,2 mil Vol 31/12
¿Visitará Xi Jinping EE. UU. antes de 2027?¿Visitará Xi Jinping EE. UU. antes de 2027?
December 3197%SíNo
October 3196%SíNo
$739,5 mil Vol 31/12
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro86%SíNo
Delcy Rodríguez10%SíNo
$95,8 M Vol 31/12
¿Decisión de la Fed en diciembre?¿Decisión de la Fed en diciembre?
No change61%SíNo
25 bps increase29%SíNo
$2,1 M Vol 09/12
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4727%SíNo
4914%SíNo
$2,9 M Vol 03/11
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
August 31, 20261%
December 31, 202610%
$4 mil Vol 01/01
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
6%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$260,1 mil Vol 31/12
What will Trump say this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Trump say this week? (August 24 - August 30)
God90%SíNo
Boom / Booming81%SíNo
$5,4 mil Vol 7 días restantes
US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday? US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?
62%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$5,8 mil Vol Termina hoy
¿Decisión de la Fed en enero?¿Decisión de la Fed en enero?
No change61%SíNo
25 bps increase22%SíNo
$2,1 M Vol 27/01
Who will be arrested before 2027?Who will be arrested before 2027?
Mahmoud Khalil30%SíNo
John Brennan18%SíNo
$389 mil Vol
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?
1220%SíNo
1019%SíNo
$10,5 mil Vol 03/11
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 316%SíNo
September 302%SíNo
$29,1 M Vol 01/01
What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?
Iran 5+ times63%SíNo
Go ahead 5+ times58%SíNo
$3,3 mil Vol 31/08
What will Trump say in August?What will Trump say in August?
Movie Star52%SíNo
Green New Scam52%SíNo
$2,9 mil Vol 31/08
Who will Trump meet with in August?Who will Trump meet with in August?
Elon MuskElon Musk11%SíNo
Giorgia MeloniGiorgia Meloni7%SíNo
$10,7 mil Vol 31/08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
June 30, 202755%SíNo
March 31, 202744%SíNo
$6 M Vol 01/07
What will Scott Bessent say during press conference?What will Scott Bessent say during press conference?
Oil / Gas / Gasoline86%SíNo
Regime80%SíNo
$2,5 mil Vol Termina hoy
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?
554%SíNo
618%SíNo
$11,9 mil Vol 03/11
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?
30+7%SíNo
40+2%SíNo
$2,4 mil Vol 31/08
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?
September 3086%SíNo
September 1578%SíNo
$2,6 mil Vol 01/10
What will JD Vance say during remarks in Maine?What will JD Vance say during remarks in Maine?
Trump 10+ times99%SíNo
Illegal Alien99%SíNo
$2,2 mil Vol Termina hoy
What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?
Good Morning80%SíNo
Productivity77%SíNo
$45,6 mil Vol 5 días restantes
Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?
December 31, 202610%
June 30, 202724%
$43,4 mil Vol 01/07
Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by Aug 28? Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by Aug 28?
23%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$3,5 mil Vol 5 días restantes
Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?
July 171%
December 3126%
$188,8 mil Vol 01/01
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 21 - August 28, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 21 - August 28, 2026?
200+61%SíNo
180-19920%SíNo
$11,5 mil Vol 4 días restantes
How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?
4863%SíNo
4717%SíNo
$7,2 mil Vol 03/11
When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?
September 3063%SíNo
September 1132%SíNo
$57,5 mil Vol 01/10
Who will Trump publicly praise in August?Who will Trump publicly praise in August?
Xi JinpingXi Jinping74%SíNo
Doug FordDoug Ford42%SíNo
$1,5 mil Vol 31/08
Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?
December 31, 20265%
June 30, 202711%
$26,1 mil Vol 01/07
What will Trump say during Rose Garden event?What will Trump say during Rose Garden event?
Child / Children 5+ times92%SíNo
College87%SíNo
$1,4 mil Vol Termina hoy
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 3117%SíNo
October 318%SíNo
$1,1 M Vol 31/12
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 25 - September 1, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 25 - September 1, 2026?
200+53%SíNo
180-19926%SíNo
$11,5 mil Vol 01/09
Who will Trump speak to in August?Who will Trump speak to in August?
Friedrich MerzFriedrich Merz55%SíNo
Elon MuskElon Musk44%SíNo
$1,4 mil Vol 31/08
Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?
Candace OwensCandace Owens27%SíNo
Kaitlan CollinsKaitlan Collins27%SíNo
$1,3 mil Vol 31/08
Weed rescheduled by...?Weed rescheduled by...?
December 3118%SíNo
September 3016%SíNo
$1,3 mil Vol 01/01
What will Trump post this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Trump post this week? (August 24 - August 30)
Communist / Communism90%SíNo
Crime88%SíNo
$1,6 mil Vol 7 días restantes
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
3.75%45%SíNo
4.0%31%SíNo
$6,8 M Vol 09/12
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?
2%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$1,7 mil Vol 31/08
¿Kash Patel fuera del cargo antes de...?¿Kash Patel fuera del cargo antes de...?
December 3125%SíNo
September 308%SíNo
$1,7 M Vol 01/01
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
IrelandIreland99%SíNo
AlemaniaAlemania39%SíNo
$1,2 mil Vol 31/12
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Ryan SalameRyan Salame23%SíNo
Daniel PennyDaniel Penny21%SíNo
$428,5 mil Vol 31/12
Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?
285M56%SíNo
270M1%SíNo
$59,3 mil Vol 09/09
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
December 313%SíNo
August 311%SíNo
$6,3 M Vol 01/01
Netanyahu arrested by…?Netanyahu arrested by…?
December 316%SíNo
September 302%SíNo
$22,3 mil Vol 01/01
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
6%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$64,7 mil Vol 31/12
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?
December 31, 202621%
June 30, 20262%
$55,5 mil Vol 01/01
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027No meeting before 202794%SíNo
SuizaSuiza3%SíNo
$904 Vol 31/12
Trump meets with Putin by...?Trump meets with Putin by...?
December 3148%SíNo
September 302%SíNo
$152,1 mil Vol 01/01
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
16%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$839 Vol 31/12
Trump approval rating on August 28?Trump approval rating on August 28?
38.0–38.435%SíNo
38.5–38.930%SíNo
$779 Vol 5 días restantes
How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?
173%SíNo
221%SíNo
$3,9 mil Vol 03/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?
433%SíNo
532%SíNo
$6,1 mil Vol 03/11
Will Trump launch a coin by ___?Will Trump launch a coin by ___?
December 31, 202619%
March 31, 20266%
$89 mil Vol 01/01
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Cuban regime falls in 2026?
13%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$1,6 M Vol 31/12
Which companies will the US take a stake in?Which companies will the US take a stake in?
GlobalFoundries89%SíNo
Rigetti79%SíNo
$173,1 mil Vol 31/12
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
October 3150%SíNo
December 3150%SíNo
$2,9 M Vol 01/01
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
December 3128%SíNo
September 307%SíNo
$6,4 M Vol 01/01
US strike on Mexico by...?US strike on Mexico by...?
December 3112%SíNo
January 311%SíNo
$3,4 M Vol 01/01
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
2%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$547 Vol 31/12
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
India18%SíNo
Israel16%SíNo
$504 Vol 31/12
Maduro Prison Time?Maduro Prison Time?
No prison time39%SíNo
60+33%SíNo
$676,4 mil Vol 31/12
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?
December 31, 202629%SíNo
August 31, 20263%SíNo
$87,4 mil Vol 01/01
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
7%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$10,6 M Vol 31/12
¿Irán aceptará entregar su stock de uranio enriquecido para...?¿Irán aceptará entregar su stock de uranio enriquecido para...?
31 de diciembre8%SíNo
31 de octubre3%SíNo
$17,8 M Vol 01/01
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
52%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$306,9 mil Vol 31/12
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31? Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?
20%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$7,4 mil Vol 7 días restantes
How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
35%35%25%SíNo
30%30%6%SíNo
$386 Vol 31/12
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?
342%SíNo
226%SíNo
$4,7 mil Vol 03/11
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 313%SíNo
June 263%SíNo
$1,6 M Vol 01/09
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
67%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$419 Vol 20/01
Fed abolished before 2027? Fed abolished before 2027?
5%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$352 Vol 31/12
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
October 3172%SíNo
September 3061%SíNo
$347 Vol 01/11
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?
1%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$107,6 mil Vol 31/12
Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election? Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election?
No Endorsement65%SíNo
Likud31%SíNo
$29,3 mil Vol 28/10
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Preguntas Frecuentes sobre los Mercados de Trump

¿Qué mercados de Trump están activos ahora?

Aprobación anual, resultados de políticas específicas, procedimientos legales, resultados de negociaciones internacionales y decisiones de nombramientos de alto nivel.

¿Qué mueve los precios?

Declaraciones de Trump (especialmente en Truth Social), anuncios oficiales de la Casa Blanca, fallos judiciales y acciones del Congreso. Las reacciones son muy rápidas.

¿Cómo gestiono el riesgo en los mercados de Trump?

Alta volatilidad: construya posiciones gradualmente, evite la sobreconcentración en un solo mercado y verifique la profundidad del libro de órdenes antes de entrar.

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