特朗普预测市场

特朗普预测市场是Polymarket中最活跃的市场之一——任期、法律程序、外交政策（乌克兰、中国、中东）、国内政策和总体批准。交易量超过数亿美元。

这些市场对每一个重大声明反应强烈——通过Truth Social、采访或白宫公告。实时新闻报道创造了交易机会。

100 活跃市场
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
18%
概率
是 否
$982.5万 成交量 01/01
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%是否
August 25August 2599%是否
$265.4万 成交量 30/09
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3173%是否
October 3152%是否
$1,946.7万 成交量 01/01
伊朗政权会在2027年前垮台吗？ 伊朗政权会在2027年前垮台吗？
8%
概率
是 否
$40.1万 成交量 31/12
美国会在2027年前入侵伊朗吗？ 美国会在2027年前入侵伊朗吗？
17%
概率
是 否
$23.4万 成交量 31/12
美伊和平谈判下一轮到...?美伊和平谈判下一轮到...?
March 31, 202767%是否
December 31, 202653%是否
$9.9万 成交量 01/04
Russia nuclear test by...?Russia nuclear test by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20266%是否
September 30, 2026September 30, 20261%是否
$621.1万 成交量 01/01
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
August 2496%是否
August 2893%是否
$3.5万 成交量 01/09
10月美联储决议？10月美联储决议？
No change72%是否
25 bps increase25%是否
$204万 成交量 28/10
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
September 3016%是否
September 158%是否
$67.3万 成交量 01/10
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 314%
August 314%
$27.5万 成交量 01/09
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Mohammad Bagher GhalibafMohammad Bagher Ghalibaf41%是否
Steve WitkoffSteve Witkoff37%是否
$2.4万 成交量 31/12
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
September 3040%是否
August 3110%是否
$91.7万 成交量 01/10
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
ChinaChina53%是否
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3147%是否
$2.3万 成交量 31/12
伊朗是否在12月31日前同意停止铀浓缩？ 伊朗是否在12月31日前同意停止铀浓缩？
14%
概率
是 否
$2.2万 成交量 31/12
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3124%是否
October 3115%是否
$594.6万 成交量 01/01
US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday? US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?
96%
概率
是 否
$2.1万 成交量 今日截止
美伊和平谈判下一轮将在何处进行...?美伊和平谈判下一轮将在何处进行...?
9月30日前没有会议74%是否
瑞士10%是否
$1.8万 成交量 30/09
Trump out as President by August 31? Trump out as President by August 31?
1%
概率
是 否
$3.2万 成交量 31/08
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
概率
是 否
$3.2万 成交量 31/12
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Scott JenningsScott Jennings28%是否
Anna KellyAnna Kelly17%是否
$15万 成交量 31/12
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?
200+99%是否
180-19911%是否
$1.7万 成交量 今日截止
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
AlibabaAlibaba22%是否
CATLCATL19%是否
$18.7万 成交量 30/06
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman77%是否
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin48%是否
$1.6万 成交量 31/12
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
4%
概率
是 否
$7,484 成交量 31/12
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
86%
概率
是 否
$7,235 成交量 31/12
习近平会在2027年前访问美国吗？习近平会在2027年前访问美国吗？
December 3197%是否
October 3196%是否
$74万 成交量 31/12
What will Scott Bessent say during press conference?What will Scott Bessent say during press conference?
Secondary99%是否
Facilitator / Facilitate / Facilitates99%是否
$6,146 成交量 今日截止
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro85%是否
Delcy Rodríguez10%是否
$9,578.9万 成交量 31/12
Who will Trump meet with in August?Who will Trump meet with in August?
Elon MuskElon Musk11%是否
Giorgia MeloniGiorgia Meloni3%是否
$1.6万 成交量 31/08
12月美联储决议？12月美联储决议？
No change61%是否
25 bps increase29%是否
$204万 成交量 09/12
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4727%是否
4914%是否
$286.4万 成交量 03/11
What will JD Vance say during remarks in Maine?What will JD Vance say during remarks in Maine?
Trump 10+ times99%是否
Border 5+ times99%是否
$4,095 成交量 今日截止
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
6%
概率
是 否
$26万 成交量 31/12
What will Trump say this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Trump say this week? (August 24 - August 30)
God90%是否
Boom / Booming80%是否
$5,364 成交量 还剩 7 天
1月美联储决议？1月美联储决议？
No change61%是否
25 bps increase22%是否
$204万 成交量 27/01
Who will be arrested before 2027?Who will be arrested before 2027?
Mahmoud Khalil29%是否
John Brennan18%是否
$38.9万 成交量
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?
1220%是否
1019%是否
$1万 成交量 03/11
What will Trump say during Rose Garden event?What will Trump say during Rose Garden event?
Child / Children 5+ times88%是否
College87%是否
$3,460 成交量 今日截止
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 316%是否
September 302%是否
$2,914.9万 成交量 01/01
What will Trump say in August?What will Trump say in August?
Movie Star52%是否
Thomas Jefferson52%是否
$3,253 成交量 31/08
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?
30+5%是否
40+2%是否
$3,180 成交量 31/08
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 21 - August 28, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 21 - August 28, 2026?
200+74%是否
180-19920%是否
$1.7万 成交量 还剩 4 天
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
June 30, 202756%是否
March 31, 202744%是否
$604.2万 成交量 01/07
What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?
Iran 5+ times65%是否
Alien60%是否
$2,513 成交量 31/08
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?
555%是否
618%是否
$1.2万 成交量 03/11
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?
September 3086%是否
September 1578%是否
$2,482 成交量 01/10
Who will Trump speak to in August?Who will Trump speak to in August?
Friedrich MerzFriedrich Merz52%是否
Elon MuskElon Musk44%是否
$2,203 成交量 31/08
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 25 - September 1, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 25 - September 1, 2026?
200+44%是否
180-19926%是否
$1.7万 成交量 01/09
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
52%
概率
是 否
$30.8万 成交量 31/12
What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?
Good Morning79%是否
Productivity77%是否
$4.6万 成交量 还剩 5 天
Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?
December 31, 202610%
June 30, 202728%
$4.3万 成交量 01/07
Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by Aug 28? Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by Aug 28?
21%
概率
是 否
$3,553 成交量 还剩 5 天
Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?
July 171%
December 3126%
$18.9万 成交量 01/01
How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?
4863%是否
4717%是否
$7,155 成交量 03/11
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 3117%是否
October 318%是否
$113万 成交量 31/12
What will Trump post this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Trump post this week? (August 24 - August 30)
China99%是否
Communist / Communism91%是否
$1,928 成交量 还剩 7 天
Who will Trump publicly praise in August?Who will Trump publicly praise in August?
Xi JinpingXi Jinping74%是否
Delcy RodriguezDelcy Rodriguez58%是否
$1,532 成交量 31/08
When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?
September 3063%是否
September 1132%是否
$5.7万 成交量 01/10
Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?
December 31, 20265%
June 30, 202711%
$2.6万 成交量 01/07
Weed rescheduled by...?Weed rescheduled by...?
December 3118%是否
September 3016%是否
$1,397 成交量 01/01
Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?
Candace OwensCandace Owens28%是否
Kaitlan CollinsKaitlan Collins27%是否
$1,326 成交量 31/08
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?
2%
概率
是 否
$1,577 成交量 31/08
Kash Patel会在...前下台吗？Kash Patel会在...前下台吗？
December 3125%是否
September 308%是否
$170.2万 成交量 01/01
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
IrelandIreland98%是否
德国德国40%是否
$1,189 成交量 31/12
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
3.75%44%是否
4.0%31%是否
$677.1万 成交量 09/12
Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?
285M56%是否
270M1%是否
$5.9万 成交量 09/09
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Ryan SalameRyan Salame23%是否
Matt GaetzMatt Gaetz21%是否
$42.8万 成交量 31/12
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
December 313%是否
August 311%是否
$630.4万 成交量 01/01
Netanyahu arrested by…?Netanyahu arrested by…?
December 316%是否
September 302%是否
$2.2万 成交量 01/01
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
6%
概率
是 否
$6.5万 成交量 31/12
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?
December 31, 202620%
June 30, 20262%
$5.5万 成交量 01/01
Trump meets with Putin by...?Trump meets with Putin by...?
December 3149%是否
September 302%是否
$15.2万 成交量 01/01
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
16%
概率
是 否
$798 成交量 31/12
Trump approval rating on August 28?Trump approval rating on August 28?
38.0–38.435%是否
37.5–37.929%是否
$794 成交量 还剩 5 天
How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?
173%是否
221%是否
$3,934 成交量 03/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?
433%是否
532%是否
$6,143 成交量 03/11
Will Trump launch a coin by ___?Will Trump launch a coin by ___?
December 31, 202619%
March 31, 20266%
$8.9万 成交量 01/01
What will Trump say during Tele-Rallies on August 24?What will Trump say during Tele-Rallies on August 24?
State 5+ times94%是否
Border 3+ times91%是否
$656 成交量 今日截止
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Cuban regime falls in 2026?
13%
概率
是 否
$162.9万 成交量 31/12
Which companies will the US take a stake in?Which companies will the US take a stake in?
GlobalFoundries89%是否
Rigetti81%是否
$17.3万 成交量 31/12
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
October 3150%是否
December 3150%是否
$288.5万 成交量 01/01
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027No meeting before 202794%是否
瑞士瑞士3%是否
$578 成交量 31/12
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
December 3128%是否
September 307%是否
$641.1万 成交量 01/01
US strike on Mexico by...?US strike on Mexico by...?
December 3112%是否
January 311%是否
$344.6万 成交量 01/01
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
2%
概率
是 否
$547 成交量 31/12
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
India20%是否
加拿大18%是否
$504 成交量 31/12
Maduro Prison Time?Maduro Prison Time?
No prison time39%是否
60+33%是否
$67.6万 成交量 31/12
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
7%
概率
是 否
$1,057.7万 成交量 31/12
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?
December 31, 202629%是否
August 31, 20263%是否
$8.7万 成交量 01/01
伊朗同意在...之前交出浓缩铀库存...?伊朗同意在...之前交出浓缩铀库存...?
12月31日8%是否
10月31日3%是否
$1,777.2万 成交量 01/01
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
August 31, 20261%
December 31, 202610%
$409 成交量 01/01
FDA moves BPC-157 to Category 1 by…?FDA moves BPC-157 to Category 1 by…?
August 31, 202610%
December 31, 202647%
$3,370 成交量 01/01
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 313%是否
June 263%是否
$157.4万 成交量 01/09
How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
35%35%25%是否
30%30%6%是否
$380 成交量 31/12
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?
342%是否
226%是否
$4,738 成交量 03/11
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31? Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?
20%
概率
是 否
$7,419 成交量 还剩 7 天
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
67%
概率
是 否
$419 成交量 20/01
Fed abolished before 2027? Fed abolished before 2027?
5%
概率
是 否
$352 成交量 31/12
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
October 3172%是否
September 3064%是否
$347 成交量 01/11
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特朗普市场常见问题

现在有哪些特朗普市场在进行？

年度批准、特定政策结果、法律程序、国际谈判结果和高级任命决定。

什么因素影响价格？

特朗普的声明（尤其是Truth Social）、官方白宫公告、法院裁决和国会行动。反应非常迅速。

我如何在特朗普市场中管理风险？

高波动性——逐步建立头寸，避免在单一市场中过度集中，并在进入之前检查订单簿深度。

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