트럼프 예측 시장

트럼프 예측 시장은 폴리마켓에서 가장 활발한 시장 중 하나입니다: 임기, 법적 절차, 외교 정책(우크라이나, 중국, 중동), 국내 정책 및 일반 승인. 거래량은 수억 달러를 초과합니다.

이 시장은 트루스 소셜, 인터뷰 또는 백악관 발표 등 주요 발언에 강하게 반응합니다. 실시간 뉴스 보도가 거래 기회를 창출합니다.

100 활성 시장
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
18%
확률
예 아니오
$993.6만 거래량 01/01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3172%예아니오
October 3151%예아니오
$1,948.5만 거래량 01/01
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%예아니오
August 25August 2599%예아니오
$268만 거래량 30/09
이란 정권이 2027 전에 붕괴할까? 이란 정권이 2027 전에 붕괴할까?
8%
확률
예 아니오
$39.5만 거래량 31/12
미국, 2027년 이전에 이란을 침공할까? 미국, 2027년 이전에 이란을 침공할까?
17%
확률
예 아니오
$23.4만 거래량 31/12
미국-이란 평화 회담 다음 라운드...?미국-이란 평화 회담 다음 라운드...?
March 31, 202769%예아니오
December 31, 202653%예아니오
$11.3만 거래량 01/04
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3125%예아니오
October 3114%예아니오
$599.3만 거래량 01/01
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
August 2499%예아니오
August 3192%예아니오
$3.9만 거래량 01/09
10월 연준 결정은?10월 연준 결정은?
No change72%예아니오
25 bps increase25%예아니오
$209.4만 거래량 28/10
Russia nuclear test by...?Russia nuclear test by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20266%예아니오
September 30, 2026September 30, 20261%예아니오
$621.1만 거래량 01/01
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
September 3016%예아니오
September 158%예아니오
$67.4만 거래량 01/10
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
ChinaChina54%예아니오
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3145%예아니오
$2.5만 거래량 31/12
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 314%
August 314%
$27.6만 거래량 01/09
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Mohammad Bagher GhalibafMohammad Bagher Ghalibaf41%예아니오
Steve WitkoffSteve Witkoff37%예아니오
$2.4만 거래량 31/12
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
September 3040%예아니오
August 3110%예아니오
$91.7만 거래량 01/10
이란이 12월 31일까지 우라늄 농축 중단에 합의할까? 이란이 12월 31일까지 우라늄 농축 중단에 합의할까?
14%
확률
예 아니오
$2.2만 거래량 31/12
US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday? US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?
97%
확률
예 아니오
$2.3만 거래량 오늘 마감
Trump out as President by August 31? Trump out as President by August 31?
1%
확률
예 아니오
$3.2만 거래량 31/08
다음 미국-이란 평화 회담은 어디에서 열릴까...?다음 미국-이란 평화 회담은 어디에서 열릴까...?
9월 30일까지 회의 없음74%예아니오
스위스10%예아니오
$1.8만 거래량 30/09
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
확률
예 아니오
$3.2만 거래량 31/12
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Spencer PrattSpencer Pratt40%예아니오
Lara TrumpLara Trump40%예아니오
$15.2만 거래량 31/12
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
AlibabaAlibaba22%예아니오
CATLCATL19%예아니오
$18.7만 거래량 30/06
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?
200+99%예아니오
180-19911%예아니오
$1.7만 거래량 오늘 마감
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman77%예아니오
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin48%예아니오
$1.5만 거래량 31/12
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
4%
확률
예 아니오
$1만 거래량 31/12
What will Trump say during Rose Garden event?What will Trump say during Rose Garden event?
College99%예아니오
Transgender99%예아니오
$8,072 거래량 오늘 마감
What will Trump say this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Trump say this week? (August 24 - August 30)
Karoline / Leavitt99%예아니오
Transgender99%예아니오
$9,122 거래량 7일 남음
What will Scott Bessent say during press conference?What will Scott Bessent say during press conference?
Regime99%예아니오
Secondary99%예아니오
$7,422 거래량 오늘 마감
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
86%
확률
예 아니오
$7,235 거래량 31/12
시진핑이 2027년 이전에 미국을 방문할까요?시진핑이 2027년 이전에 미국을 방문할까요?
December 3197%예아니오
October 3196%예아니오
$74만 거래량 31/12
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro85%예아니오
Delcy Rodríguez10%예아니오
$9,578.9만 거래량 31/12
12월 연준 결정은?12월 연준 결정은?
No change61%예아니오
25 bps increase29%예아니오
$209.4만 거래량 09/12
What will JD Vance say during remarks in Maine?What will JD Vance say during remarks in Maine?
Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime99%예아니오
Ass29%예아니오
$4,299 거래량 오늘 마감
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4727%예아니오
4914%예아니오
$286.4만 거래량 03/11
Who will Trump meet with in August?Who will Trump meet with in August?
Elon MuskElon Musk13%예아니오
Giorgia MeloniGiorgia Meloni3%예아니오
$1.5만 거래량 31/08
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
6%
확률
예 아니오
$26만 거래량 31/12
1월 연준 결정은?1월 연준 결정은?
No change61%예아니오
25 bps increase22%예아니오
$209.4만 거래량 27/01
Who will be arrested before 2027?Who will be arrested before 2027?
Mahmoud Khalil31%예아니오
John Brennan18%예아니오
$38.9만 거래량
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?
1220%예아니오
1019%예아니오
$1만 거래량 03/11
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 316%예아니오
September 302%예아니오
$2,914.9만 거래량 01/01
What will Trump say in August?What will Trump say in August?
Thomas Jefferson53%예아니오
Movie Star52%예아니오
$3,267 거래량 31/08
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?
30+5%예아니오
40+2%예아니오
$3,180 거래량 31/08
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 21 - August 28, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 21 - August 28, 2026?
200+82%예아니오
180-19912%예아니오
$1.7만 거래량 4일 남음
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
June 30, 202756%예아니오
March 31, 202744%예아니오
$604.2만 거래량 01/07
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?
554%예아니오
618%예아니오
$1.2만 거래량 03/11
What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?
Iran 5+ times64%예아니오
Alien63%예아니오
$2,437 거래량 31/08
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 25 - September 1, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 25 - September 1, 2026?
200+38%예아니오
180-19926%예아니오
$1.7만 거래량 01/09
Who will Trump speak to in August?Who will Trump speak to in August?
Friedrich MerzFriedrich Merz52%예아니오
Elon MuskElon Musk44%예아니오
$2,312 거래량 31/08
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
December 3117%예아니오
June 301%예아니오
$212.7만 거래량 01/01
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?
September 3085%예아니오
September 1578%예아니오
$2,395 거래량 01/10
Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?
July 171%
December 3125%
$18.9만 거래량 01/01
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
53%
확률
예 아니오
$30.8만 거래량 31/12
What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?
Good Morning79%예아니오
Productivity77%예아니오
$4.6만 거래량 5일 남음
Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?
December 31, 202610%
June 30, 202726%
$4.3만 거래량 01/07
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?
1%
확률
예 아니오
$10.9만 거래량 31/12
Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by Aug 28? Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by Aug 28?
22%
확률
예 아니오
$3,553 거래량 5일 남음
How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?
4863%예아니오
4717%예아니오
$7,155 거래량 03/11
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 3117%예아니오
October 318%예아니오
$113만 거래량 31/12
When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?
September 3063%예아니오
September 1132%예아니오
$5.7만 거래량 01/10
Who will Trump publicly praise in August?Who will Trump publicly praise in August?
Xi JinpingXi Jinping72%예아니오
Delcy RodriguezDelcy Rodriguez58%예아니오
$1,506 거래량 31/08
Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?
December 31, 20265%
June 30, 202711%
$2.6만 거래량 01/07
What will Trump post this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Trump post this week? (August 24 - August 30)
China99%예아니오
Communist / Communism91%예아니오
$1,777 거래량 7일 남음
Weed rescheduled by...?Weed rescheduled by...?
December 3121%예아니오
September 3020%예아니오
$1,420 거래량 01/01
What will Trump say during Tele-Rallies on August 24?What will Trump say during Tele-Rallies on August 24?
State 5+ times94%예아니오
Border 3+ times91%예아니오
$1,397 거래량 오늘 마감
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?
2%
확률
예 아니오
$1,577 거래량 31/08
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
IrelandIreland98%예아니오
독일독일40%예아니오
$1,188 거래량 31/12
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
3.75%45%예아니오
4.0%31%예아니오
$677.1만 거래량 09/12
Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?
285M56%예아니오
270M1%예아니오
$5.9만 거래량 09/09
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Ryan SalameRyan Salame23%예아니오
Matt GaetzMatt Gaetz21%예아니오
$42.8만 거래량 31/12
Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?
Candace OwensCandace Owens28%예아니오
Kaitlan CollinsKaitlan Collins28%예아니오
$1,088 거래량 31/08
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
December 313%예아니오
August 311%예아니오
$630.4만 거래량 01/01
Netanyahu arrested by…?Netanyahu arrested by…?
December 316%예아니오
September 302%예아니오
$2.2만 거래량 01/01
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
6%
확률
예 아니오
$6.5만 거래량 31/12
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?
December 31, 202620%
June 30, 20262%
$5.5만 거래량 01/01
Trump meets with Putin by...?Trump meets with Putin by...?
December 3149%예아니오
September 303%예아니오
$15.2만 거래량 01/01
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
16%
확률
예 아니오
$798 거래량 31/12
Trump approval rating on August 28?Trump approval rating on August 28?
38.0–38.435%예아니오
37.5–37.929%예아니오
$794 거래량 5일 남음
How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?
173%예아니오
221%예아니오
$3,934 거래량 03/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?
433%예아니오
533%예아니오
$6,143 거래량 03/11
Will Trump launch a coin by ___?Will Trump launch a coin by ___?
December 31, 202619%
March 31, 20266%
$8.9만 거래량 01/01
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Cuban regime falls in 2026?
13%
확률
예 아니오
$162.9만 거래량 31/12
Which companies will the US take a stake in?Which companies will the US take a stake in?
GlobalFoundries89%예아니오
Rigetti77%예아니오
$17.3만 거래량 31/12
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
October 3150%예아니오
December 3150%예아니오
$288.5만 거래량 01/01
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
December 3128%예아니오
September 307%예아니오
$641.1만 거래량 01/01
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027No meeting before 202794%예아니오
스위스스위스3%예아니오
$571 거래량 31/12
US strike on Mexico by...?US strike on Mexico by...?
December 3112%예아니오
January 311%예아니오
$344.6만 거래량 01/01
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
2%
확률
예 아니오
$547 거래량 31/12
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
India20%예아니오
캐나다19%예아니오
$504 거래량 31/12
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
7%
확률
예 아니오
$1,057.7만 거래량 31/12
Maduro Prison Time?Maduro Prison Time?
No prison time39%예아니오
60+33%예아니오
$67.6만 거래량 31/12
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
August 31, 20261%
December 31, 202611%
$494 거래량 01/01
이란이 농축 우라늄 비축량을 양도하기로 합의했다...?이란이 농축 우라늄 비축량을 양도하기로 합의했다...?
12월 31일8%예아니오
10월 31일3%예아니오
$1,777.2만 거래량 01/01
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?
December 31, 202629%예아니오
August 31, 20263%예아니오
$8.7만 거래량 01/01
FDA moves BPC-157 to Category 1 by…?FDA moves BPC-157 to Category 1 by…?
August 31, 202610%
December 31, 202647%
$3,370 거래량 01/01
Kash Patel가 ...까지 물러날까?Kash Patel가 ...까지 물러날까?
December 3124%예아니오
September 308%예아니오
$170.2만 거래량 01/01
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 313%예아니오
June 263%예아니오
$157.4만 거래량 01/09
How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
35%35%25%예아니오
30%30%6%예아니오
$380 거래량 31/12
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?
342%예아니오
226%예아니오
$4,738 거래량 03/11
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31? Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?
16%
확률
예 아니오
$7,419 거래량 7일 남음
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
67%
확률
예 아니오
$419 거래량 20/01
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트럼프 시장에서 위험을 관리하는 방법은?

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