Marchés de Prédiction Trump

Les marchés de prédiction Trump sont parmi les plus actifs de Polymarket : mandat, procédures judiciaires, politique étrangère (Ukraine, Chine, Moyen-Orient), politique intérieure et approbation générale. Les volumes dépassent des centaines de millions de dollars.

Ces marchés réagissent fortement à chaque déclaration majeure, via Truth Social, interviews ou annonces de la Maison Blanche. La couverture médiatique en temps réel crée des opportunités de trading.

100 marchés actifs
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
17%
de chance
Oui Non
$9,8 M Vol 01/01
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%OuiNon
August 25August 2599%OuiNon
$2,6 M Vol 30/09
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3173%OuiNon
October 3153%OuiNon
$19,3 M Vol 01/01
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
de chance
Oui Non
$173,7 k Vol 31/12
Quand aura lieu le prochain round de négociations de paix entre les États-Unis et l'Iran...?Quand aura lieu le prochain round de négociations de paix entre les États-Unis et l'Iran...?
March 31, 202765%OuiNon
December 31, 202652%OuiNon
$114 k Vol 01/04
Les États-Unis envahiront-ils l'Iran avant 2027 ? Les États-Unis envahiront-ils l'Iran avant 2027 ?
17%
de chance
Oui Non
$95,7 k Vol 31/12
Le régime iranien tombera-t-il avant 2027 ? Le régime iranien tombera-t-il avant 2027 ?
7%
de chance
Oui Non
$82,8 k Vol 31/12
Russia nuclear test by...?Russia nuclear test by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20266%OuiNon
September 30, 2026September 30, 20261%OuiNon
$6,2 M Vol 01/01
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
September 3017%OuiNon
September 159%OuiNon
$670,9 k Vol 01/10
Trump out as President by August 31? Trump out as President by August 31?
1%
de chance
Oui Non
$173,7 k Vol 31/08
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 314%
August 314%
$274,2 k Vol 01/09
Décision de la Fed en octobre ?Décision de la Fed en octobre ?
No change72%OuiNon
25 bps increase25%OuiNon
$1,6 M Vol 28/10
L'Iran acceptera-t-il d'arrêter l'enrichissement d'uranium d'ici le 31 décembre ? L'Iran acceptera-t-il d'arrêter l'enrichissement d'uranium d'ici le 31 décembre ?
14%
de chance
Oui Non
$22,4 k Vol 31/12
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3125%OuiNon
October 3115%OuiNon
$5,9 M Vol 01/01
Où aura lieu le prochain round de négociations de paix entre les États-Unis et l'Iran...?Où aura lieu le prochain round de négociations de paix entre les États-Unis et l'Iran...?
Pas de réunion avant le 30 septembre74%OuiNon
Suisse10%OuiNon
$19,8 k Vol 30/09
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
September 3044%OuiNon
August 3115%OuiNon
$910 k Vol 01/10
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Mohammad Bagher GhalibafMohammad Bagher Ghalibaf42%OuiNon
Jared KushnerJared Kushner39%OuiNon
$16,9 k Vol 31/12
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3151%OuiNon
ChinaChina46%OuiNon
$16,4 k Vol 31/12
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Scott JenningsScott Jennings21%OuiNon
Anna KellyAnna Kelly16%OuiNon
$148,5 k Vol 31/12
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman77%OuiNon
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin47%OuiNon
$20,4 k Vol 31/12
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
AlibabaAlibaba22%OuiNon
CATLCATL19%OuiNon
$186,9 k Vol 30/06
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
August 2494%OuiNon
August 2893%OuiNon
$9,2 k Vol 01/09
Who will Trump meet with in August?Who will Trump meet with in August?
Giorgia MeloniGiorgia Meloni22%OuiNon
Elon MuskElon Musk11%OuiNon
$20,4 k Vol 31/08
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?
200+87%OuiNon
180-19911%OuiNon
$10,9 k Vol 2 jours restants
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
4%
de chance
Oui Non
$7,5 k Vol 31/12
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro86%OuiNon
Delcy Rodríguez10%OuiNon
$95,8 M Vol 31/12
Xi Jinping visitera-t-il les États-Unis avant 2027 ?Xi Jinping visitera-t-il les États-Unis avant 2027 ?
December 3197%OuiNon
October 3196%OuiNon
$738,9 k Vol 31/12
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
87%
de chance
Oui Non
$6,2 k Vol 31/12
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?
30+7%OuiNon
40+2%OuiNon
$5,3 k Vol 31/08
Décision de la Fed en décembre ?Décision de la Fed en décembre ?
No change61%OuiNon
25 bps increase29%OuiNon
$1,6 M Vol 09/12
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
August 31, 20261%
December 31, 202610%
$4 k Vol 01/01
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
6%
de chance
Oui Non
$260,1 k Vol 31/12
Décision de la Fed en janvier ?Décision de la Fed en janvier ?
No change61%OuiNon
25 bps increase22%OuiNon
$1,6 M Vol 27/01
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4727%OuiNon
4914%OuiNon
$2,9 M Vol 03/11
Who will be arrested before 2027?Who will be arrested before 2027?
Mahmoud Khalil27%OuiNon
John Brennan18%OuiNon
$389 k Vol
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?
1027%OuiNon
1220%OuiNon
$10,4 k Vol 03/11
What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?
Productivity76%OuiNon
Good Morning76%OuiNon
$45,5 k Vol 5 jours restants
Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?
December 31, 20265%
June 30, 202711%
$26 k Vol 01/07
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 316%OuiNon
September 302%OuiNon
$29,1 M Vol 01/01
What will Trump say this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Trump say this week? (August 24 - August 30)
God98%OuiNon
Ballroom88%OuiNon
$4,3 k Vol 7 jours restants
What will Trump say in August?What will Trump say in August?
Green New Scam60%OuiNon
Thomas Jefferson54%OuiNon
$2,8 k Vol 31/08
What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?
Illegal / Illegals69%OuiNon
Iran 5+ times63%OuiNon
$2,7 k Vol 31/08
US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday? US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?
75%
de chance
Oui Non
$4,7 k Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
June 30, 202758%OuiNon
March 31, 202744%OuiNon
$6 M Vol 01/07
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?
554%OuiNon
618%OuiNon
$11,9 k Vol 03/11
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?
September 3086%OuiNon
September 1581%OuiNon
$2,4 k Vol 01/10
Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by Aug 28? Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by Aug 28?
19%
de chance
Oui Non
$3,4 k Vol 5 jours restants
Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?
December 31, 202610%
June 30, 202729%
$43,4 k Vol 01/07
Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?
July 171%
December 3127%
$188,8 k Vol 01/01
How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?
4863%OuiNon
4718%OuiNon
$7,1 k Vol 03/11
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 21 - August 28, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 21 - August 28, 2026?
200+59%OuiNon
180-19918%OuiNon
$10,9 k Vol 5 jours restants
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
3.75%43%OuiNon
4.0%32%OuiNon
$6,8 M Vol 09/12
Trump meets with Putin by...?Trump meets with Putin by...?
December 3146%OuiNon
September 302%OuiNon
$152 k Vol 01/01
Who will Trump publicly praise in August?Who will Trump publicly praise in August?
Xi JinpingXi Jinping55%OuiNon
Doug FordDoug Ford43%OuiNon
$1,5 k Vol 31/08
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 25 - September 1, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 25 - September 1, 2026?
200+53%OuiNon
180-19926%OuiNon
$10,9 k Vol 01/09
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 3117%OuiNon
October 318%OuiNon
$1,1 M Vol 31/12
Weed rescheduled by...?Weed rescheduled by...?
September 3048%OuiNon
December 3117%OuiNon
$1,3 k Vol 01/01
Who will Trump speak to in August?Who will Trump speak to in August?
Friedrich MerzFriedrich Merz54%OuiNon
Andy BurnhamAndy Burnham48%OuiNon
$1,3 k Vol 31/08
Kash Patel hors de ses fonctions d'ici... ?Kash Patel hors de ses fonctions d'ici... ?
December 3125%OuiNon
September 308%OuiNon
$1,7 M Vol 01/01
What will Trump post this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Trump post this week? (August 24 - August 30)
Communist / Communism91%OuiNon
Crime91%OuiNon
$1,6 k Vol 7 jours restants
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?
2%
de chance
Oui Non
$1,7 k Vol 31/08
When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?
September 3063%OuiNon
September 1132%OuiNon
$57,1 k Vol 01/10
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
IrelandIreland98%OuiNon
AllemagneAllemagne39%OuiNon
$1,2 k Vol 31/12
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Ryan SalameRyan Salame23%OuiNon
Matt GaetzMatt Gaetz21%OuiNon
$428,5 k Vol 31/12
Netanyahu arrested by…?Netanyahu arrested by…?
December 316%OuiNon
September 302%OuiNon
$22,3 k Vol 01/01
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
December 313%OuiNon
August 311%OuiNon
$6,3 M Vol 01/01
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027No meeting before 202794%OuiNon
SuisseSuisse3%OuiNon
$975 Vol 31/12
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
6%
de chance
Oui Non
$64,7 k Vol 31/12
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?
December 31, 202621%
June 30, 20262%
$55,5 k Vol 01/01
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
December 3128%OuiNon
September 307%OuiNon
$6,4 M Vol 01/01
Will Trump launch a coin by ___?Will Trump launch a coin by ___?
December 31, 202613%
March 31, 20266%
$89 k Vol 01/01
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
17%
de chance
Oui Non
$839 Vol 31/12
How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?
173%OuiNon
221%OuiNon
$3,9 k Vol 03/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?
433%OuiNon
533%OuiNon
$6,1 k Vol 03/11
Which companies will the US take a stake in?Which companies will the US take a stake in?
GlobalFoundries89%OuiNon
Rigetti80%OuiNon
$173 k Vol 31/12
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Cuban regime falls in 2026?
13%
de chance
Oui Non
$1,6 M Vol 31/12
Insurrection Act invoked by...?Insurrection Act invoked by...?
December 3115%OuiNon
September 302%OuiNon
$1,1 M Vol 01/01
Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?
Friedrich MerzFriedrich Merz29%OuiNon
Candace OwensCandace Owens28%OuiNon
$555 Vol 31/08
US strike on Mexico by...?US strike on Mexico by...?
December 3112%OuiNon
January 311%OuiNon
$3,4 M Vol 01/01
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
India18%OuiNon
Israel16%OuiNon
$514 Vol 31/12
Maduro Prison Time?Maduro Prison Time?
No prison time39%OuiNon
60+33%OuiNon
$676,4 k Vol 31/12
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
7%
de chance
Oui Non
$10,6 M Vol 31/12
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31? Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?
20%
de chance
Oui Non
$7,4 k Vol 7 jours restants
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
50%
de chance
Oui Non
$306,9 k Vol 31/12
Trump approval rating on August 28?Trump approval rating on August 28?
38.0–38.435%OuiNon
37.5–37.932%OuiNon
$408 Vol 5 jours restants
L'Iran acceptera-t-il d'arrêter l'enrichissement d'uranium d'ici le 30 septembre ? L'Iran acceptera-t-il d'arrêter l'enrichissement d'uranium d'ici le 30 septembre ?
4%
de chance
Oui Non
$22,4 k Vol 30/09
How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
35%35%25%OuiNon
30%30%6%OuiNon
$386 Vol 31/12
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Pennsylvania?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Pennsylvania?
930%OuiNon
1025%OuiNon
$9,6 k Vol 03/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Florida?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Florida?
414%OuiNon
12+14%OuiNon
$3,9 k Vol 03/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?
342%OuiNon
226%OuiNon
$4,7 k Vol 03/11
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 313%OuiNon
June 263%OuiNon
$1,6 M Vol 01/09
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
96%
de chance
Oui Non
$364,3 k Vol 31/12
Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election? Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election?
No Endorsement65%OuiNon
Likud31%OuiNon
$29,3 k Vol 28/10
FDA moves BPC-157 to Category 1 by…?FDA moves BPC-157 to Category 1 by…?
August 31, 202612%
December 31, 202646%
$3,3 k Vol 01/01
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Michigan?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Michigan?
854%OuiNon
921%OuiNon
$10,5 k Vol 03/11
Will Trump pardon anyone by...?Will Trump pardon anyone by...?
October 3172%OuiNon
September 3066%OuiNon
$309 Vol 01/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Nevada?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Nevada?
349%OuiNon
421%OuiNon
$3,4 k Vol 03/11
Heidi Overton confirmed as FDA Commissioner by...?Heidi Overton confirmed as FDA Commissioner by...?
December 3164%OuiNon
November 3036%OuiNon
$14,7 k Vol 01/01
How many House seats will the Democrats win in New York?How many House seats will the Democrats win in New York?
1936%OuiNon
2033%OuiNon
$5,5 k Vol 03/11
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
67%
de chance
Oui Non
$319 Vol 20/01
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Approbation annuelle, résultats de politiques spécifiques, procédures judiciaires, résultats de négociations internationales et décisions de nominations de hauts fonctionnaires.

Qu'est-ce qui fait bouger les prix ?

Les déclarations de Trump (en particulier sur Truth Social), les annonces officielles de la Maison Blanche, les décisions judiciaires et les actions du Congrès. Les réactions sont très rapides.

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