Mga Pamilihan ng Prediksyon sa Halalan

Ang mga pamilihan ng halalan ay pangunahing bahagi ng Polymarket: mga halalan sa pagkapangulo ng US, mga pangunahing partido, mga laban sa kongreso, at anumang boto ng pangunahing demokrasya. Ang mga pamilihan ng halalan sa US 2024 ay nakapag-book ng bilyon-bilyong halaga.

Pinagsasama-sama ng pagpepresyo ang mga poll, datos ng pananalapi ng partido, mga tagapagpahiwatig ng ekonomiya at mga ulat, lahat ay pinagsama sa isang presyo. Mayamang pook ng kalakalan para sa parehong mga analyst at mga mamumuhunan na nakabatay sa opinyon.

80 aktibong market
Ayusin
Halalan sa Pagkapangulo ng BrazilHalalan sa Pagkapangulo ng Brazil
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva63%OoHindi
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro33%OoHindi
$132.1M Dami 04/10
Nagwagi sa Halalan sa Pagkapangulo 2028Nagwagi sa Halalan sa Pagkapangulo 2028
JD VanceJD Vance23%OoHindi
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%OoHindi
$692.1M Dami 07/11
Susunod na Halalan sa Pangulo ng PransyaSusunod na Halalan sa Pangulo ng Pransya
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen32%OoHindi
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe25%OoHindi
$121.3M Dami 30/04
Nominee ng Demokratikong Pangulo 2028Nominee ng Demokratikong Pangulo 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez23%OoHindi
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom15%OoHindi
$1.27B Dami 07/11
Next Prime Minister of SwedenNext Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena AnderssonMagdalena Andersson90%OoHindi
Ulf KristerssonUlf Kristersson10%OoHindi
$4M Dami 13/09
Nominee ng Pangulo ng Republikano 2028Nominee ng Pangulo ng Republikano 2028
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance47%OoHindi
Marco RubioMarco Rubio20%OoHindi
$690.7M Dami 07/11
Aling partido ang makakakuha ng pinakamaraming upuan sa Halalan ng Parlyamento ng Russia?Aling partido ang makakakuha ng pinakamaraming upuan sa Halalan ng Parlyamento ng Russia?
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)71%OoHindi
New People (NL)New People (NL)23%OoHindi
$21.7M Dami 20/09
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 3197%OoHindi
September 3089%OoHindi
$26.3M Dami 31/08
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep48%OoHindi
R Senate, D House39%OoHindi
$10.4M Dami 03/11
Sino ang magiging susunod na Punong Ministro ng Israel pagkatapos ng susunod na halalan?Sino ang magiging susunod na Punong Ministro ng Israel pagkatapos ng susunod na halalan?
Gadi EizenkotGadi Eizenkot58%OoHindi
Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin Netanyahu27%OoHindi
$33M Dami 31/12
Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold? Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
1%
tsansa
Oo Hindi
$128.2K Dami 20/09
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election WinnerRio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
Eduardo PaesEduardo Paes94%OoHindi
Douglas RuasDouglas Ruas5%OoHindi
$419.1K Dami 05/10
Sweden Parliamentary Election WinnerSweden Parliamentary Election Winner
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)98%OoHindi
Sweden Democrats (SD)Sweden Democrats (SD)1%OoHindi
$1.4M Dami 13/09
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro86%OoHindi
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva6%OoHindi
$5.2M Dami 04/10
Aling partido ang mananalo sa Kapulungan ng mga Kinatawan sa 2026?Aling partido ang mananalo sa Kapulungan ng mga Kinatawan sa 2026?
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party89%OoHindi
Republican PartyRepublican Party12%OoHindi
$20.6K Dami 03/11
How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?
325–33942%OoHindi
340–35422%OoHindi
$211.2K Dami 20/09
Texas Senate Election WinnerTexas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D)James Talarico (D)51%OoHindi
Ken Paxton (R)Ken Paxton (R)49%OoHindi
$870.8K Dami 03/11
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Scott JenningsScott Jennings28%OoHindi
Anna KellyAnna Kelly16%OoHindi
$147.5K Dami 31/12
Michigan Senate Election WinnerMichigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D)Abdul El-Sayed (D)62%OoHindi
Mike Rogers (R)Mike Rogers (R)39%OoHindi
$586.4K Dami 03/11
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3196%OoHindi
September 3093%OoHindi
$356.8K Dami 01/01
Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?
David Morales52%OoHindi
Brett Smiley47%OoHindi
$22.4K Dami 09/09
San Luis Potosí Governor Election WinnerSan Luis Potosí Governor Election Winner
Ruth González SilvaRuth González Silva52%OoHindi
Gerardo Sánchez ZumayaGerardo Sánchez Zumaya10%OoHindi
$20.9K Dami 06/06
Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Edin FortoEdin Forto21%OoHindi
Nermin NikšićNermin Nikšić13%OoHindi
$64.1K Dami
Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner
Ricardo Ferraço73%OoHindi
Lorenzo Pazolini25%OoHindi
$29.9K Dami 05/10
Russia Parliamentary Election WinnerRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)99%OoHindi
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)1%OoHindi
$3.3M Dami 20/09
Rhode Island Governor Democratic Primary WinnerRhode Island Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Helena FoulkesHelena Foulkes94%OoHindi
Dan McKeeDan McKee5%OoHindi
$38.8K Dami 08/09
Nigerian Presidential Election WinnerNigerian Presidential Election Winner
Bola TinubuBola Tinubu69%OoHindi
Peter ObiPeter Obi24%OoHindi
$113.7K Dami 16/01
Amazonas Senate Election: 1st PlaceAmazonas Senate Election: 1st Place
Eduardo BragaEduardo Braga72%OoHindi
Capitão Alberto NetoCapitão Alberto Neto15%OoHindi
$16.7K Dami 04/10
Rondônia Senate Election: 1st PlaceRondônia Senate Election: 1st Place
Dr. Fernando MáximoDr. Fernando Máximo40%OoHindi
Sílvia CristinaSílvia Cristina38%OoHindi
$23K Dami 04/10
Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?
125-12830%OoHindi
121-12423%OoHindi
$10.6K Dami 12/10
MA-08 Democratic Primary WinnerMA-08 Democratic Primary Winner
Patrick RoathPatrick Roath51%OoHindi
Stephen LynchStephen Lynch50%OoHindi
$28.7K Dami 01/09
Tocantins Governor Election WinnerTocantins Governor Election Winner
Professora DorinhaProfessora Dorinha59%OoHindi
Vicentinho JúniorVicentinho Júnior38%OoHindi
$15K Dami 04/10
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon96%OoHindi
Nathalie ArthaudNathalie Arthaud93%OoHindi
$309.2K Dami 17/04
IN-07 House Election WinnerIN-07 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%OoHindi
Republican Party5%OoHindi
$29.2K Dami 03/11
Wisconsin Governor Election WinnerWisconsin Governor Election Winner
David Crowley (D)David Crowley (D)81%OoHindi
Tom Tiffany (R)Tom Tiffany (R)20%OoHindi
$485.6K Dami 03/11
São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd PlaceSão Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place
Guilherme DerriteGuilherme Derrite34%OoHindi
Marina SilvaMarina Silva32%OoHindi
$22.6K Dami 04/10
Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Vote Share?Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Vote Share?
5-7%67%OoHindi
7-9%22%OoHindi
$13.6K Dami 13/09
Berlin State Election WinnerBerlin State Election Winner
LinkeLinke57%OoHindi
CDUCDU26%OoHindi
$3.3M Dami 20/09
Piauí Senate Election: 2nd PlacePiauí Senate Election: 2nd Place
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira39%OoHindi
Julio CesarJulio Cesar29%OoHindi
$17.3K Dami 04/10
Cusco Mayoral Election WinnerCusco Mayoral Election Winner
Albert Aníbal Arenas YabarAlbert Aníbal Arenas Yabar30%OoHindi
William Peña FarfánWilliam Peña Farfán23%OoHindi
$18.4K Dami 04/10
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
58%
tsansa
Oo Hindi
$167.5K Dami 20/09
Aalis ba sa puwesto si Netanyahu bago ang...?Aalis ba sa puwesto si Netanyahu bago ang...?
December 3149%OoHindi
May 311%OoHindi
$6K Dami 01/01
Next Mayor of Buffalo City (East London)?Next Mayor of Buffalo City (East London)?
Princess FakuPrincess Faku59%OoHindi
Yomelela TyaliYomelela Tyali7%OoHindi
$14.9K Dami 18/11
Tocantins Senate Election: 2nd PlaceTocantins Senate Election: 2nd Place
Alexandre GuimarãesAlexandre Guimarães34%OoHindi
GaguimGaguim32%OoHindi
$14.2K Dami 04/10
Ohio Senate Election WinnerOhio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D)Sherrod Brown (D)54%OoHindi
Jon Husted (R)Jon Husted (R)48%OoHindi
$183K Dami 03/11
Mato Grosso Governor Election WinnerMato Grosso Governor Election Winner
Wellington FagundesWellington Fagundes66%OoHindi
Otaviano PivettaOtaviano Pivetta31%OoHindi
$13.9K Dami 04/10
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election WinnerChicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner
Daniel GobeilDaniel Gobeil74%OoHindi
Caroline DubéCaroline Dubé25%OoHindi
$39.7K Dami 31/08
AL-07 House Election WinnerAL-07 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%OoHindi
Republican Party5%OoHindi
$67.1K Dami 03/11
Pernambuco Senate Election: 2nd PlacePernambuco Senate Election: 2nd Place
Marília ArraesMarília Arraes40%OoHindi
Mendonça FilhoMendonça Filho34%OoHindi
$18.7K Dami 04/10
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?
3-5%45%OoHindi
5-7%40%OoHindi
$8K Dami 06/09
VT-AL House Election WinnerVT-AL House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%OoHindi
Republican Party5%OoHindi
$39.6K Dami 03/11
Chiclayo Mayoral Election WinnerChiclayo Mayoral Election Winner
Edwin Gonzalo Vásquez SánchezEdwin Gonzalo Vásquez Sánchez37%OoHindi
Duber Alberto Fernández SilvaDuber Alberto Fernández Silva25%OoHindi
$6.2K Dami 04/10
Latvian Parliamentary Election WinnerLatvian Parliamentary Election Winner
AS48%OoHindi
SV26%OoHindi
$197.4K Dami 03/10
Federal District Senate Election: 1st PlaceFederal District Senate Election: 1st Place
Michelle BolsonaroMichelle Bolsonaro63%OoHindi
Leila do VôleiLeila do Vôlei27%OoHindi
$11.1K Dami 04/10
Oklahoma Democratic Senate Primary WinnerOklahoma Democratic Senate Primary Winner
N’Kiyla “Jasmine” ThomasN’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas94%OoHindi
Jim PriestJim Priest6%OoHindi
$117.8K Dami Matatapos ngayong araw
SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?
62-6430%OoHindi
59-6129%OoHindi
$7.2K Dami 12/10
Arequipa Mayoral Election WinnerArequipa Mayoral Election Winner
Ricardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar LlosaRicardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar Llosa18%OoHindi
Javier Antonio Onofre CcamaJavier Antonio Onofre Ccama15%OoHindi
$8K Dami 04/10
TX-01 House Election WinnerTX-01 House Election Winner
Republican Party95%OoHindi
Democratic Party5%OoHindi
$42.3K Dami 03/11
Lagos, Nigeria Governor Election WinnerLagos, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
Obafemi HamzatObafemi Hamzat87%OoHindi
Rhodes-Vivour Gbadebo PatrickRhodes-Vivour Gbadebo Patrick5%OoHindi
$5.4K Dami 06/02
NC-04 House Election WinnerNC-04 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%OoHindi
Republican Party5%OoHindi
$37.5K Dami 03/11
Quebec General Election WinnerQuebec General Election Winner
PQPQ72%OoHindi
PLQPLQ17%OoHindi
$807.5K Dami 05/10
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen84%OoHindi
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon47%OoHindi
$92.3K Dami 30/04
Sonora Governor Election WinnerSonora Governor Election Winner
Lorenia Valles SampedroLorenia Valles Sampedro37%OoHindi
Luis Donaldo Colosio RiojasLuis Donaldo Colosio Riojas31%OoHindi
$20.7K Dami 06/06
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
6%
tsansa
Oo Hindi
$260.1K Dami 31/12
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
36%
tsansa
Oo Hindi
$372.3K Dami 06/09
France United Left Primary WinnerFrance United Left Primary Winner
Canceled94%OoHindi
François RuffinFrançois Ruffin1%OoHindi
$210.5K Dami 11/10
Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st PlaceSanta Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Carlos BolsonaroCarlos Bolsonaro41%OoHindi
Carol de ToniCarol de Toni38%OoHindi
$10.1K Dami 04/10
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Éric Zemmour71%OoHindi
Olivier Faure61%OoHindi
$70.6K Dami 23/04
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4727%OoHindi
4914%OoHindi
$2.9M Dami 03/11
Espírito Santo Senate Election: 2nd PlaceEspírito Santo Senate Election: 2nd Place
Sergio MeneguelliSergio Meneguelli41%OoHindi
Fabiano ContaratoFabiano Contarato32%OoHindi
$15.3K Dami 04/10
Rondônia Senate Election: 2nd PlaceRondônia Senate Election: 2nd Place
Sílvia CristinaSílvia Cristina35%OoHindi
Dr. Fernando MáximoDr. Fernando Máximo28%OoHindi
$13.9K Dami 04/10
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Charleston County WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Charleston County Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone77%OoHindi
Ralph NormanRalph Norman22%OoHindi
$13.8K Dami 2 araw pa
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?
1024%OoHindi
1220%OoHindi
$10.4K Dami 03/11
São Tomé and Príncipe Parliamentary Election WinnerSão Tomé and Príncipe Parliamentary Election Winner
MLSTPMLSTP68%OoHindi
ADIADI30%OoHindi
$8.9K Dami 27/09
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Horry County WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Horry County Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone97%OoHindi
Ralph NormanRalph Norman2%OoHindi
$19.8K Dami 2 araw pa
Piauí Senate Election: 1st PlacePiauí Senate Election: 1st Place
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira37%OoHindi
Marcelo CastroMarcelo Castro34%OoHindi
$28.3K Dami 04/10
Next Regional Board Chair of Östergötland?Next Regional Board Chair of Östergötland?
Mattias OttossonMattias Ottosson63%OoHindi
Marie MorellMarie Morell21%OoHindi
$15.5K Dami 13/09
Goiás Senate Election: 2nd PlaceGoiás Senate Election: 2nd Place
Gustavo GayerGustavo Gayer55%OoHindi
Vanderlan CardosoVanderlan Cardoso20%OoHindi
$23.6K Dami 04/10
Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st PlaceMinas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place
Marília CamposMarília Campos58%OoHindi
Carlos VianaCarlos Viana27%OoHindi
$16.2K Dami 04/10
VA-03 House Election WinnerVA-03 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%OoHindi
Republican Party2%OoHindi
$60.6K Dami 03/11
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FAQ ng mga Pamilihan ng Halalan

Bakit tumpak ang mga pamilihan ng halalan?

Kailangan nila ng 'skin in the game': ang mga tao ay naglalagay ng pera sa kanilang mga pananaw, na nag-aalis ng mababang kalidad na ingay. Mas malaki ang volume, mas maaasahan ang presyo.

Aling mga pamilihan ng halalan ang live ngayon?

US 2028, Israel (ayon sa petsa), mga lokal na halalan sa UK at EU, kasama ang mga pangunahing partido. Sundan ang aming pahina para sa mga update.

Paano ko ipapresyo ang panganib sa mga pamilihan ng halalan?

Suriin ang liquidity (lalim ng order-book), makasaysayang volatility, at petsa ng desisyon. Ang mga pamilihan na may manipis na liquidity ay madaling kapitan ng hindi epektibong pagpepresyo.

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