Seçim Tahmin Pazarları

Seçim pazarları Polymarket'in çekirdeğidir: ABD başkanlık, parti ön seçimleri, kongre yarışları ve herhangi bir büyük demokrasinin oyu. 2024 ABD seçim pazarları milyarlarca hacim kaydetti.

Fiyatlandırma, anketler, parti finans verileri, ekonomik göstergeler ve raporlamayı harmanlayarak tek bir fiyatta yoğunlaştırır. Hem analistler hem de görüş odaklı yatırımcılar için zengin bir ticaret alanı.

78 aktif pazarlar
2028 Cumhuriyetçi Başkanlık Adayı2028 Cumhuriyetçi Başkanlık Adayı
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance47%EvetHayır
Marco RubioMarco Rubio20%EvetHayır
$691,1 milyon Hacim 07/11
Son Fransız Başkanlık SeçimiSon Fransız Başkanlık Seçimi
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen32%EvetHayır
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe25%EvetHayır
$121,6 milyon Hacim 30/04
Brezilya Başkanlık SeçimiBrezilya Başkanlık Seçimi
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva63%EvetHayır
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro34%EvetHayır
$132,2 milyon Hacim 04/10
2028 Başkanlık Seçimi Kazananı2028 Başkanlık Seçimi Kazananı
JD VanceJD Vance23%EvetHayır
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%EvetHayır
$692,2 milyon Hacim 07/11
2028 Demokratik Başkan Adayı2028 Demokratik Başkan Adayı
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez21%EvetHayır
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom15%EvetHayır
$1,3 milyar Hacim 07/11
Rusya Parlamento Seçimi'nde en fazla sandalye kazanacak parti hangisi?Rusya Parlamento Seçimi'nde en fazla sandalye kazanacak parti hangisi?
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)72%EvetHayır
New People (NL)New People (NL)22%EvetHayır
$21,8 milyon Hacim 20/09
Next Prime Minister of SwedenNext Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena AnderssonMagdalena Andersson91%EvetHayır
Ulf KristerssonUlf Kristersson10%EvetHayır
$4 milyon Hacim 13/09
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone65%EvetHayır
Ralph NormanRalph Norman35%EvetHayır
$2,9 milyon Hacim Bugün bitiyor
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 3197%EvetHayır
September 3089%EvetHayır
$26,3 milyon Hacim 31/08
Bir sonraki seçimden sonra İsrail'in yeni Başbakanı kim olacak?Bir sonraki seçimden sonra İsrail'in yeni Başbakanı kim olacak?
Gadi EizenkotGadi Eizenkot55%EvetHayır
Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin Netanyahu26%EvetHayır
$33 milyon Hacim 31/12
Texas Senate Election WinnerTexas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D)James Talarico (D)51%EvetHayır
Ken Paxton (R)Ken Paxton (R)50%EvetHayır
$915,5 bin Hacim 03/11
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep48%EvetHayır
R Senate, D House39%EvetHayır
$10,4 milyon Hacim 03/11
Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold? Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
1%
şans
Evet Hayır
$128,2 bin Hacim 20/09
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election WinnerRio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
Eduardo PaesEduardo Paes94%EvetHayır
Douglas RuasDouglas Ruas5%EvetHayır
$419,1 bin Hacim 05/10
How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?
325–33941%EvetHayır
340–35422%EvetHayır
$211,2 bin Hacim 20/09
Michigan Senate Election WinnerMichigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D)Abdul El-Sayed (D)61%EvetHayır
Mike Rogers (R)Mike Rogers (R)39%EvetHayır
$587,2 bin Hacim 03/11
2026'de Temsilciler Meclisi'ni hangi parti kazanacak?2026'de Temsilciler Meclisi'ni hangi parti kazanacak?
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party89%EvetHayır
Republican PartyRepublican Party12%EvetHayır
$14,2 bin Hacim 03/11
Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?
David Morales52%EvetHayır
Brett Smiley46%EvetHayır
$22,6 bin Hacim 09/09
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Scott JenningsScott Jennings25%EvetHayır
Anna KellyAnna Kelly17%EvetHayır
$149,6 bin Hacim 31/12
Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner
Ricardo Ferraço78%EvetHayır
Lorenzo Pazolini16%EvetHayır
$30,4 bin Hacim 05/10
Rhode Island Governor Democratic Primary WinnerRhode Island Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Helena FoulkesHelena Foulkes94%EvetHayır
Dan McKeeDan McKee5%EvetHayır
$39,2 bin Hacim 08/09
Russia Parliamentary Election WinnerRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)99%EvetHayır
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)1%EvetHayır
$3,3 milyon Hacim 20/09
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3196%EvetHayır
September 3093%EvetHayır
$356,8 bin Hacim 01/01
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon96%EvetHayır
Nathalie ArthaudNathalie Arthaud89%EvetHayır
$312,5 bin Hacim 17/04
Nigerian Presidential Election WinnerNigerian Presidential Election Winner
Bola TinubuBola Tinubu70%EvetHayır
Peter ObiPeter Obi24%EvetHayır
$113,7 bin Hacim 16/01
Amazonas Senate Election: 1st PlaceAmazonas Senate Election: 1st Place
Eduardo BragaEduardo Braga72%EvetHayır
Capitão Alberto NetoCapitão Alberto Neto17%EvetHayır
$16,7 bin Hacim 04/10
Piauí Senate Election: 2nd PlacePiauí Senate Election: 2nd Place
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira43%EvetHayır
Marcelo CastroMarcelo Castro21%EvetHayır
$20,7 bin Hacim 04/10
Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?
125-12830%EvetHayır
121-12423%EvetHayır
$10,8 bin Hacim 12/10
Colima Governor Election WinnerColima Governor Election Winner
Rosa María Bayardo CabreraRosa María Bayardo Cabrera57%EvetHayır
Griselda Martínez MartínezGriselda Martínez Martínez10%EvetHayır
$27,5 bin Hacim 06/06
Tocantins Senate Election: 2nd PlaceTocantins Senate Election: 2nd Place
Alexandre GuimarãesAlexandre Guimarães41%EvetHayır
GaguimGaguim40%EvetHayır
$17 bin Hacim 04/10
Tocantins Governor Election WinnerTocantins Governor Election Winner
Professora DorinhaProfessora Dorinha57%EvetHayır
Vicentinho JúniorVicentinho Júnior40%EvetHayır
$15,3 bin Hacim 04/10
Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st PlaceRio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place
Carlos JordyCarlos Jordy48%EvetHayır
Benedita da SilvaBenedita da Silva48%EvetHayır
$25,2 bin Hacim 04/10
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro86%EvetHayır
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva5%EvetHayır
$5,2 milyon Hacim 04/10
IN-07 House Election WinnerIN-07 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%EvetHayır
Republican Party5%EvetHayır
$29,6 bin Hacim 03/11
San Luis Potosí Governor Election WinnerSan Luis Potosí Governor Election Winner
Ruth González SilvaRuth González Silva53%EvetHayır
Gerardo Sánchez ZumayaGerardo Sánchez Zumaya10%EvetHayır
$21 bin Hacim 06/06
WA-09 House Election WinnerWA-09 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%EvetHayır
Republican Party3%EvetHayır
$49,4 bin Hacim 03/11
Rondônia Senate Election: 1st PlaceRondônia Senate Election: 1st Place
Dr. Fernando MáximoDr. Fernando Máximo38%EvetHayır
Sílvia CristinaSílvia Cristina38%EvetHayır
$23,1 bin Hacim 04/10
Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Vote Share?Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Vote Share?
5-7%63%EvetHayır
7-9%25%EvetHayır
$14,8 bin Hacim 13/09
MA-08 Democratic Primary WinnerMA-08 Democratic Primary Winner
Stephen LynchStephen Lynch50%EvetHayır
Patrick RoathPatrick Roath48%EvetHayır
$31,5 bin Hacim 01/09
Netanyahu ...tarihine kadar görevden ayrılır mı?Netanyahu ...tarihine kadar görevden ayrılır mı?
December 3149%EvetHayır
May 311%EvetHayır
$7,1 bin Hacim 01/01
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election WinnerChicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner
Daniel GobeilDaniel Gobeil75%EvetHayır
Caroline DubéCaroline Dubé24%EvetHayır
$42,3 bin Hacim 31/08
Piauí Senate Election: 1st PlacePiauí Senate Election: 1st Place
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira48%EvetHayır
Marcelo CastroMarcelo Castro39%EvetHayır
$31,8 bin Hacim 04/10
Berlin State Election WinnerBerlin State Election Winner
LinkeLinke58%EvetHayır
CDUCDU26%EvetHayır
$3,3 milyon Hacim 20/09
Mato Grosso Governor Election WinnerMato Grosso Governor Election Winner
Wellington FagundesWellington Fagundes54%EvetHayır
Otaviano PivettaOtaviano Pivetta44%EvetHayır
$15,5 bin Hacim 04/10
Cusco Mayoral Election WinnerCusco Mayoral Election Winner
Albert Aníbal Arenas YabarAlbert Aníbal Arenas Yabar30%EvetHayır
Sergio Sullca CondoriSergio Sullca Condori28%EvetHayır
$18,5 bin Hacim 04/10
Wisconsin Governor Election WinnerWisconsin Governor Election Winner
David Crowley (D)David Crowley (D)81%EvetHayır
Tom Tiffany (R)Tom Tiffany (R)20%EvetHayır
$485,9 bin Hacim 03/11
Florida Senate Election WinnerFlorida Senate Election Winner
Ashley Moody (R)Ashley Moody (R)92%EvetHayır
Angie Nixon (D)Angie Nixon (D)8%EvetHayır
$94,8 bin Hacim
Ohio Senate Election WinnerOhio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D)Sherrod Brown (D)54%EvetHayır
Jon Husted (R)Jon Husted (R)47%EvetHayır
$183,4 bin Hacim 03/11
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
59%
şans
Evet Hayır
$168,2 bin Hacim 20/09
Chiclayo Mayoral Election WinnerChiclayo Mayoral Election Winner
Edwin Gonzalo Vásquez SánchezEdwin Gonzalo Vásquez Sánchez30%EvetHayır
Agustín Villarreal GranadosAgustín Villarreal Granados26%EvetHayır
$7,3 bin Hacim 04/10
São Paulo Senate Election: 1st PlaceSão Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place
Guilherme DerriteGuilherme Derrite46%EvetHayır
Simone TebetSimone Tebet31%EvetHayır
$24,3 bin Hacim 04/10
Oklahoma Democratic Senate Primary WinnerOklahoma Democratic Senate Primary Winner
N’Kiyla “Jasmine” ThomasN’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas92%EvetHayır
Jim PriestJim Priest8%EvetHayır
$118,9 bin Hacim Bugün bitiyor
São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd PlaceSão Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place
Guilherme DerriteGuilherme Derrite35%EvetHayır
Marina SilvaMarina Silva32%EvetHayır
$23,3 bin Hacim 04/10
NC-04 House Election WinnerNC-04 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%EvetHayır
Republican Party5%EvetHayır
$38,3 bin Hacim 03/11
NC-12 House Election WinnerNC-12 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%EvetHayır
Republican Party3%EvetHayır
$63,6 bin Hacim 03/11
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?
3-5%49%EvetHayır
5-7%42%EvetHayır
$8,2 bin Hacim 06/09
Pernambuco Senate Election: 2nd PlacePernambuco Senate Election: 2nd Place
Humberto CostaHumberto Costa45%EvetHayır
Mendonça FilhoMendonça Filho34%EvetHayır
$19,5 bin Hacim 04/10
AL-07 House Election WinnerAL-07 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%EvetHayır
Republican Party5%EvetHayır
$67,1 bin Hacim 03/11
Latvian Parliamentary Election WinnerLatvian Parliamentary Election Winner
AS49%EvetHayır
SV26%EvetHayır
$197,6 bin Hacim 03/10
Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary WinnerOklahoma Governor Republican Primary Winner
Mike MazzeiMike Mazzei79%EvetHayır
Gentner DrummondGentner Drummond21%EvetHayır
$529,7 bin Hacim Bugün bitiyor
VT-AL House Election WinnerVT-AL House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%EvetHayır
Republican Party5%EvetHayır
$39,6 bin Hacim 03/11
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
38%
şans
Evet Hayır
$373,9 bin Hacim 06/09
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen84%EvetHayır
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon50%EvetHayır
$93,3 bin Hacim 30/04
Florida Governor Election WinnerFlorida Governor Election Winner
Byron Donalds (R)Byron Donalds (R)80%EvetHayır
David Jolly (D)David Jolly (D)22%EvetHayır
$55,7 bin Hacim 03/11
SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?
62-6430%EvetHayır
59-6129%EvetHayır
$7,2 bin Hacim 12/10
Arequipa Mayoral Election WinnerArequipa Mayoral Election Winner
Andrés Eliseo Risueño PortugalAndrés Eliseo Risueño Portugal31%EvetHayır
Ricardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar LlosaRicardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar Llosa18%EvetHayır
$8 bin Hacim 04/10
TX-01 House Election WinnerTX-01 House Election Winner
Republican Party95%EvetHayır
Democratic Party5%EvetHayır
$42,3 bin Hacim 03/11
Lagos, Nigeria Governor Election WinnerLagos, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
Obafemi HamzatObafemi Hamzat87%EvetHayır
Rhodes-Vivour Gbadebo PatrickRhodes-Vivour Gbadebo Patrick6%EvetHayır
$5,4 bin Hacim 06/02
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4727%EvetHayır
4914%EvetHayır
$2,9 milyon Hacim 03/11
Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Zukan HelezZukan Helez37%EvetHayır
Sabina ĆudićSabina Ćudić27%EvetHayır
$66,8 bin Hacim
Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st PlaceMinas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place
Marília CamposMarília Campos48%EvetHayır
Carlos VianaCarlos Viana13%EvetHayır
$17,5 bin Hacim 04/10
Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd PlaceRio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd Place
Carlos JordyCarlos Jordy28%EvetHayır
Pedro PauloPedro Paulo21%EvetHayır
$27,1 bin Hacim 04/10
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Charleston County WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Charleston County Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone78%EvetHayır
Ralph NormanRalph Norman22%EvetHayır
$14,3 bin Hacim 2 gün kaldı
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?
49%
şans
Evet Hayır
$33,5 bin Hacim 6 gün kaldı
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
6%
şans
Evet Hayır
$260,1 bin Hacim 31/12
France United Left Primary WinnerFrance United Left Primary Winner
Canceled94%EvetHayır
François RuffinFrançois Ruffin1%EvetHayır
$210,6 bin Hacim 11/10
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Éric Zemmour68%EvetHayır
Olivier Faure59%EvetHayır
$70,8 bin Hacim 23/04
Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st PlaceSanta Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Carol de ToniCarol de Toni45%EvetHayır
Carlos BolsonaroCarlos Bolsonaro39%EvetHayır
$10,1 bin Hacim 04/10
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Seçim Pazarları SSS

Seçim pazarları neden doğru?

İnsanların görüşleri üzerine para koymasını gerektirir; bu, düşük kaliteli gürültüyü filtreler. Hacim ne kadar büyükse, fiyat o kadar güvenilir olur.

Şu anda hangi seçim pazarları aktif?

ABD 2028, İsrail (tarihe göre), Birleşik Krallık ve AB yerel seçimleri, ayrıca parti ön seçimleri. Güncellemeler için sayfamızı takip edin.

Seçim pazarlarında riski nasıl fiyatlandırırım?

Likiditeyi (emir defteri derinliği), tarihsel volatiliteyi ve karar tarihini kontrol edin. İnce likiditeye sahip pazarlar verimsiz fiyatlamaya eğilimlidir.

Polymarket Eğitimini Ücretsiz Başlat
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