선거 예측 시장

선거 시장은 폴리마켓의 핵심입니다: 미국 대통령, 정당 예비선거, 의회 선거 및 주요 민주주의의 투표. 2024년 미국 선거 시장은 수십억 달러의 거래량을 기록했습니다.

가격은 여론 조사, 정당 재정 데이터, 경제 지표 및 보고서를 혼합하여 하나의 가격으로 정제됩니다. 분석가와 의견 기반 투자자 모두에게 풍부한 거래 환경을 제공합니다.

78 활성 시장
2028 공화당 대통령 후보2028 공화당 대통령 후보
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance47%예아니오
Marco RubioMarco Rubio20%예아니오
$6.9억 거래량 07/11
다음 프랑스 대통령 선거다음 프랑스 대통령 선거
마린 르 펜마린 르 펜32%예아니오
에두아르 필리프에두아르 필리프25%예아니오
$1.2억 거래량 30/04
브라질 대통령 선거브라질 대통령 선거
루이즈 이나시우 룰라 다 실바루이즈 이나시우 룰라 다 실바63%예아니오
플라비우 보우소나루플라비우 보우소나루34%예아니오
$1.3억 거래량 04/10
2028년 대통령 선거 승자2028년 대통령 선거 승자
JD VanceJD Vance23%예아니오
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%예아니오
$6.9억 거래량 07/11
2028년 민주당 대통령 후보2028년 민주당 대통령 후보
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez21%예아니오
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom15%예아니오
$12.7억 거래량 07/11
러시아 의회 선거에서 가장 많은 의석을 얻을 정당은?러시아 의회 선거에서 가장 많은 의석을 얻을 정당은?
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)72%예아니오
New People (NL)New People (NL)22%예아니오
$2,176.8만 거래량 20/09
Next Prime Minister of SwedenNext Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena AnderssonMagdalena Andersson91%예아니오
Ulf KristerssonUlf Kristersson10%예아니오
$401.6만 거래량 13/09
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone65%예아니오
Ralph NormanRalph Norman35%예아니오
$293.5만 거래량 오늘 마감
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 3197%예아니오
September 3089%예아니오
$2,627.1만 거래량 31/08
다음 선거 후 이스라엘의 다음 총리는 누구인가?다음 선거 후 이스라엘의 다음 총리는 누구인가?
가디 아이젠코트가디 아이젠코트55%예아니오
베냐민 네타냐후베냐민 네타냐후26%예아니오
$3,299.2만 거래량 31/12
Texas Senate Election WinnerTexas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D)James Talarico (D)51%예아니오
Ken Paxton (R)Ken Paxton (R)50%예아니오
$91.5만 거래량 03/11
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep48%예아니오
R Senate, D House39%예아니오
$1,039.7만 거래량 03/11
Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold? Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
1%
확률
예 아니오
$12.8만 거래량 20/09
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election WinnerRio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
Eduardo PaesEduardo Paes94%예아니오
Douglas RuasDouglas Ruas5%예아니오
$41.9만 거래량 05/10
How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?
325–33941%예아니오
340–35422%예아니오
$21.1만 거래량 20/09
Michigan Senate Election WinnerMichigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D)Abdul El-Sayed (D)61%예아니오
Mike Rogers (R)Mike Rogers (R)39%예아니오
$58.7만 거래량 03/11
2026년 하원은 어느 정당이 승리할까?2026년 하원은 어느 정당이 승리할까?
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party89%예아니오
Republican PartyRepublican Party12%예아니오
$1.4만 거래량 03/11
Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?
David Morales52%예아니오
Brett Smiley46%예아니오
$2.3만 거래량 09/09
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Scott JenningsScott Jennings25%예아니오
Anna KellyAnna Kelly17%예아니오
$15만 거래량 31/12
Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner
Ricardo Ferraço78%예아니오
Lorenzo Pazolini16%예아니오
$3만 거래량 05/10
Rhode Island Governor Democratic Primary WinnerRhode Island Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Helena FoulkesHelena Foulkes94%예아니오
Dan McKeeDan McKee5%예아니오
$3.9만 거래량 08/09
Russia Parliamentary Election WinnerRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)99%예아니오
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)1%예아니오
$326.8만 거래량 20/09
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3196%예아니오
September 3093%예아니오
$35.7만 거래량 01/01
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon96%예아니오
Nathalie ArthaudNathalie Arthaud89%예아니오
$31.2만 거래량 17/04
Nigerian Presidential Election WinnerNigerian Presidential Election Winner
Bola TinubuBola Tinubu70%예아니오
Peter ObiPeter Obi24%예아니오
$11.4만 거래량 16/01
Amazonas Senate Election: 1st PlaceAmazonas Senate Election: 1st Place
Eduardo BragaEduardo Braga72%예아니오
Capitão Alberto NetoCapitão Alberto Neto17%예아니오
$1.7만 거래량 04/10
Piauí Senate Election: 2nd PlacePiauí Senate Election: 2nd Place
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira43%예아니오
Marcelo CastroMarcelo Castro21%예아니오
$2.1만 거래량 04/10
Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?
125-12830%예아니오
121-12423%예아니오
$1.1만 거래량 12/10
Colima Governor Election WinnerColima Governor Election Winner
Rosa María Bayardo CabreraRosa María Bayardo Cabrera57%예아니오
Griselda Martínez MartínezGriselda Martínez Martínez10%예아니오
$2.8만 거래량 06/06
Tocantins Senate Election: 2nd PlaceTocantins Senate Election: 2nd Place
Alexandre GuimarãesAlexandre Guimarães41%예아니오
GaguimGaguim40%예아니오
$1.7만 거래량 04/10
Tocantins Governor Election WinnerTocantins Governor Election Winner
Professora DorinhaProfessora Dorinha57%예아니오
Vicentinho JúniorVicentinho Júnior40%예아니오
$1.5만 거래량 04/10
Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st PlaceRio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place
Carlos JordyCarlos Jordy48%예아니오
Benedita da SilvaBenedita da Silva48%예아니오
$2.5만 거래량 04/10
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro86%예아니오
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva5%예아니오
$523.4만 거래량 04/10
IN-07 House Election WinnerIN-07 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%예아니오
Republican Party5%예아니오
$3만 거래량 03/11
San Luis Potosí Governor Election WinnerSan Luis Potosí Governor Election Winner
Ruth González SilvaRuth González Silva53%예아니오
Gerardo Sánchez ZumayaGerardo Sánchez Zumaya10%예아니오
$2.1만 거래량 06/06
WA-09 House Election WinnerWA-09 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%예아니오
Republican Party3%예아니오
$4.9만 거래량 03/11
Rondônia Senate Election: 1st PlaceRondônia Senate Election: 1st Place
Dr. Fernando MáximoDr. Fernando Máximo38%예아니오
Sílvia CristinaSílvia Cristina38%예아니오
$2.3만 거래량 04/10
Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Vote Share?Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Vote Share?
5-7%63%예아니오
7-9%25%예아니오
$1.5만 거래량 13/09
MA-08 Democratic Primary WinnerMA-08 Democratic Primary Winner
Stephen LynchStephen Lynch50%예아니오
Patrick RoathPatrick Roath48%예아니오
$3.1만 거래량 01/09
Netanyahu가 ...까지 물러날까?Netanyahu가 ...까지 물러날까?
December 3149%예아니오
May 311%예아니오
$7,111 거래량 01/01
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election WinnerChicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner
Daniel GobeilDaniel Gobeil75%예아니오
Caroline DubéCaroline Dubé24%예아니오
$4.2만 거래량 31/08
Piauí Senate Election: 1st PlacePiauí Senate Election: 1st Place
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira48%예아니오
Marcelo CastroMarcelo Castro39%예아니오
$3.2만 거래량 04/10
Berlin State Election WinnerBerlin State Election Winner
LinkeLinke58%예아니오
CDUCDU26%예아니오
$332.9만 거래량 20/09
Mato Grosso Governor Election WinnerMato Grosso Governor Election Winner
Wellington FagundesWellington Fagundes54%예아니오
Otaviano PivettaOtaviano Pivetta44%예아니오
$1.6만 거래량 04/10
Cusco Mayoral Election WinnerCusco Mayoral Election Winner
Albert Aníbal Arenas YabarAlbert Aníbal Arenas Yabar30%예아니오
Sergio Sullca CondoriSergio Sullca Condori28%예아니오
$1.8만 거래량 04/10
Wisconsin Governor Election WinnerWisconsin Governor Election Winner
David Crowley (D)David Crowley (D)81%예아니오
Tom Tiffany (R)Tom Tiffany (R)20%예아니오
$48.6만 거래량 03/11
Florida Senate Election WinnerFlorida Senate Election Winner
Ashley Moody (R)Ashley Moody (R)92%예아니오
Angie Nixon (D)Angie Nixon (D)8%예아니오
$9.5만 거래량
Ohio Senate Election WinnerOhio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D)Sherrod Brown (D)54%예아니오
Jon Husted (R)Jon Husted (R)47%예아니오
$18.3만 거래량 03/11
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
59%
확률
예 아니오
$16.8만 거래량 20/09
Chiclayo Mayoral Election WinnerChiclayo Mayoral Election Winner
Edwin Gonzalo Vásquez SánchezEdwin Gonzalo Vásquez Sánchez30%예아니오
Agustín Villarreal GranadosAgustín Villarreal Granados26%예아니오
$7,332 거래량 04/10
São Paulo Senate Election: 1st PlaceSão Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place
Guilherme DerriteGuilherme Derrite46%예아니오
Simone TebetSimone Tebet31%예아니오
$2.4만 거래량 04/10
Oklahoma Democratic Senate Primary WinnerOklahoma Democratic Senate Primary Winner
N’Kiyla “Jasmine” ThomasN’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas92%예아니오
Jim PriestJim Priest8%예아니오
$11.9만 거래량 오늘 마감
São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd PlaceSão Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place
Guilherme DerriteGuilherme Derrite35%예아니오
Marina SilvaMarina Silva32%예아니오
$2.3만 거래량 04/10
NC-04 House Election WinnerNC-04 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%예아니오
Republican Party5%예아니오
$3.8만 거래량 03/11
NC-12 House Election WinnerNC-12 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%예아니오
Republican Party3%예아니오
$6.4만 거래량 03/11
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?
3-5%49%예아니오
5-7%42%예아니오
$8,222 거래량 06/09
Pernambuco Senate Election: 2nd PlacePernambuco Senate Election: 2nd Place
Humberto CostaHumberto Costa45%예아니오
Mendonça FilhoMendonça Filho34%예아니오
$2만 거래량 04/10
AL-07 House Election WinnerAL-07 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%예아니오
Republican Party5%예아니오
$6.7만 거래량 03/11
Latvian Parliamentary Election WinnerLatvian Parliamentary Election Winner
AS49%예아니오
SV26%예아니오
$19.8만 거래량 03/10
Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary WinnerOklahoma Governor Republican Primary Winner
Mike MazzeiMike Mazzei79%예아니오
Gentner DrummondGentner Drummond21%예아니오
$53만 거래량 오늘 마감
VT-AL House Election WinnerVT-AL House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%예아니오
Republican Party5%예아니오
$4만 거래량 03/11
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
38%
확률
예 아니오
$37.4만 거래량 06/09
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen84%예아니오
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon50%예아니오
$9.3만 거래량 30/04
Florida Governor Election WinnerFlorida Governor Election Winner
Byron Donalds (R)Byron Donalds (R)80%예아니오
David Jolly (D)David Jolly (D)22%예아니오
$5.6만 거래량 03/11
SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?
62-6430%예아니오
59-6129%예아니오
$7,225 거래량 12/10
Arequipa Mayoral Election WinnerArequipa Mayoral Election Winner
Andrés Eliseo Risueño PortugalAndrés Eliseo Risueño Portugal31%예아니오
Ricardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar LlosaRicardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar Llosa18%예아니오
$7,996 거래량 04/10
TX-01 House Election WinnerTX-01 House Election Winner
Republican Party95%예아니오
Democratic Party5%예아니오
$4.2만 거래량 03/11
Lagos, Nigeria Governor Election WinnerLagos, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
Obafemi HamzatObafemi Hamzat87%예아니오
Rhodes-Vivour Gbadebo PatrickRhodes-Vivour Gbadebo Patrick6%예아니오
$5,387 거래량 06/02
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4727%예아니오
4914%예아니오
$286.4만 거래량 03/11
Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Zukan HelezZukan Helez37%예아니오
Sabina ĆudićSabina Ćudić27%예아니오
$6.7만 거래량
Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st PlaceMinas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place
Marília CamposMarília Campos48%예아니오
Carlos VianaCarlos Viana13%예아니오
$1.7만 거래량 04/10
Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd PlaceRio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd Place
Carlos JordyCarlos Jordy28%예아니오
Pedro PauloPedro Paulo21%예아니오
$2.7만 거래량 04/10
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Charleston County WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Charleston County Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone78%예아니오
Ralph NormanRalph Norman22%예아니오
$1.4만 거래량 2일 남음
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?
49%
확률
예 아니오
$3.4만 거래량 6일 남음
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
6%
확률
예 아니오
$26만 거래량 31/12
France United Left Primary WinnerFrance United Left Primary Winner
Canceled94%예아니오
François RuffinFrançois Ruffin1%예아니오
$21.1만 거래량 11/10
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Éric Zemmour68%예아니오
Olivier Faure59%예아니오
$7.1만 거래량 23/04
Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st PlaceSanta Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Carol de ToniCarol de Toni45%예아니오
Carlos BolsonaroCarlos Bolsonaro39%예아니오
$1만 거래량 04/10
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선거 시장 FAQ

왜 선거 시장이 정확한가요?

사람들이 자신의 의견에 돈을 걸어야 하므로 '게임에 피부를 걸어야' 합니다. 이는 저품질의 잡음을 걸러냅니다. 거래량이 클수록 가격이 더 신뢰할 수 있습니다.

현재 어떤 선거 시장이 활성화되어 있나요?

미국 2028, 이스라엘(날짜별), 영국 및 EU 지방 선거, 그리고 정당 예비선거가 있습니다. 업데이트를 보려면 저희 페이지를 팔로우하세요.

선거 시장에서 리스크를 어떻게 가격 책정하나요?

유동성(호가창 깊이), 역사적 변동성 및 결정 날짜를 확인하세요. 유동성이 낮은 시장은 비효율적인 가격 책정에 취약합니다.

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