Mercati di previsione sulle elezioni

I mercati elettorali sono il cuore di Polymarket: presidenziali USA, primarie di partito, corse al Congresso e il voto di qualsiasi grande democrazia. I mercati sulle elezioni USA del 2024 hanno registrato miliardi di volume.

Il prezzo combina sondaggi, dati sui finanziamenti dei partiti, indicatori economici e cronaca, tutto sintetizzato in un unico valore. Un terreno di trading ricco sia per gli analisti sia per gli investitori guidati dalle opinioni.

78 mercati attivi
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance47%SìNo
Marco RubioMarco Rubio20%SìNo
$691,1 Mln Volume 07/11
Prossime elezioni presidenziali francesiProssime elezioni presidenziali francesi
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen32%SìNo
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe25%SìNo
$121,6 Mln Volume 30/04
Elezioni presidenziali in BrasileElezioni presidenziali in Brasile
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva63%SìNo
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro34%SìNo
$132,2 Mln Volume 04/10
Presidential Election Winner 2028Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD VanceJD Vance23%SìNo
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%SìNo
$692,2 Mln Volume 07/11
Candidato presidenziale Democratico 2028Candidato presidenziale Democratico 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez21%SìNo
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom15%SìNo
$1,3 Mld Volume 07/11
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)72%SìNo
New People (NL)New People (NL)22%SìNo
$21,8 Mln Volume 20/09
Next Prime Minister of SwedenNext Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena AnderssonMagdalena Andersson91%SìNo
Ulf KristerssonUlf Kristersson10%SìNo
$4 Mln Volume 13/09
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone65%SìNo
Ralph NormanRalph Norman35%SìNo
$2,9 Mln Volume Termina oggi
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 3197%SìNo
September 3089%SìNo
$26,3 Mln Volume 31/08
Chi sarà il prossimo Primo Ministro di Israele dopo le prossime elezioni?Chi sarà il prossimo Primo Ministro di Israele dopo le prossime elezioni?
Gadi EizenkotGadi Eizenkot55%SìNo
Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin Netanyahu26%SìNo
$33 Mln Volume 31/12
Texas Senate Election WinnerTexas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D)James Talarico (D)51%SìNo
Ken Paxton (R)Ken Paxton (R)50%SìNo
$915.488 Volume 03/11
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep48%SìNo
R Senate, D House39%SìNo
$10,4 Mln Volume 03/11
Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold? Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
1%
probabilità
Sì No
$128.166 Volume 20/09
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election WinnerRio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
Eduardo PaesEduardo Paes94%SìNo
Douglas RuasDouglas Ruas5%SìNo
$419.122 Volume 05/10
How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?
325–33941%SìNo
340–35422%SìNo
$211.185 Volume 20/09
Michigan Senate Election WinnerMichigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D)Abdul El-Sayed (D)61%SìNo
Mike Rogers (R)Mike Rogers (R)39%SìNo
$587.249 Volume 03/11
Quale partito vincerà la Camera dei Rappresentanti nel 2026?Quale partito vincerà la Camera dei Rappresentanti nel 2026?
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party89%SìNo
Republican PartyRepublican Party12%SìNo
$14.229 Volume 03/11
Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?
David Morales52%SìNo
Brett Smiley46%SìNo
$22.634 Volume 09/09
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Scott JenningsScott Jennings25%SìNo
Anna KellyAnna Kelly17%SìNo
$149.599 Volume 31/12
Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner
Ricardo Ferraço78%SìNo
Lorenzo Pazolini16%SìNo
$30.416 Volume 05/10
Rhode Island Governor Democratic Primary WinnerRhode Island Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Helena FoulkesHelena Foulkes94%SìNo
Dan McKeeDan McKee5%SìNo
$39.222 Volume 08/09
Russia Parliamentary Election WinnerRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)99%SìNo
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)1%SìNo
$3,3 Mln Volume 20/09
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3196%SìNo
September 3093%SìNo
$356.810 Volume 01/01
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon96%SìNo
Nathalie ArthaudNathalie Arthaud89%SìNo
$312.476 Volume 17/04
Nigerian Presidential Election WinnerNigerian Presidential Election Winner
Bola TinubuBola Tinubu70%SìNo
Peter ObiPeter Obi24%SìNo
$113.695 Volume 16/01
Amazonas Senate Election: 1st PlaceAmazonas Senate Election: 1st Place
Eduardo BragaEduardo Braga72%SìNo
Capitão Alberto NetoCapitão Alberto Neto17%SìNo
$16.710 Volume 04/10
Piauí Senate Election: 2nd PlacePiauí Senate Election: 2nd Place
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira43%SìNo
Marcelo CastroMarcelo Castro21%SìNo
$20.713 Volume 04/10
Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?
125-12830%SìNo
121-12423%SìNo
$10.825 Volume 12/10
Colima Governor Election WinnerColima Governor Election Winner
Rosa María Bayardo CabreraRosa María Bayardo Cabrera57%SìNo
Griselda Martínez MartínezGriselda Martínez Martínez10%SìNo
$27.506 Volume 06/06
Tocantins Senate Election: 2nd PlaceTocantins Senate Election: 2nd Place
Alexandre GuimarãesAlexandre Guimarães41%SìNo
GaguimGaguim40%SìNo
$17.046 Volume 04/10
Tocantins Governor Election WinnerTocantins Governor Election Winner
Professora DorinhaProfessora Dorinha57%SìNo
Vicentinho JúniorVicentinho Júnior40%SìNo
$15.257 Volume 04/10
Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st PlaceRio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place
Carlos JordyCarlos Jordy48%SìNo
Benedita da SilvaBenedita da Silva48%SìNo
$25.231 Volume 04/10
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro86%SìNo
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva5%SìNo
$5,2 Mln Volume 04/10
IN-07 House Election WinnerIN-07 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%SìNo
Republican Party5%SìNo
$29.562 Volume 03/11
San Luis Potosí Governor Election WinnerSan Luis Potosí Governor Election Winner
Ruth González SilvaRuth González Silva53%SìNo
Gerardo Sánchez ZumayaGerardo Sánchez Zumaya10%SìNo
$20.951 Volume 06/06
WA-09 House Election WinnerWA-09 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%SìNo
Republican Party3%SìNo
$49.385 Volume 03/11
Rondônia Senate Election: 1st PlaceRondônia Senate Election: 1st Place
Dr. Fernando MáximoDr. Fernando Máximo38%SìNo
Sílvia CristinaSílvia Cristina38%SìNo
$23.061 Volume 04/10
Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Vote Share?Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Vote Share?
5-7%63%SìNo
7-9%25%SìNo
$14.770 Volume 13/09
MA-08 Democratic Primary WinnerMA-08 Democratic Primary Winner
Stephen LynchStephen Lynch50%SìNo
Patrick RoathPatrick Roath48%SìNo
$31.478 Volume 01/09
Netanyahu fuori dalla carica entro...?Netanyahu fuori dalla carica entro...?
December 3149%SìNo
May 311%SìNo
$7.111 Volume 01/01
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election WinnerChicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner
Daniel GobeilDaniel Gobeil75%SìNo
Caroline DubéCaroline Dubé24%SìNo
$42.332 Volume 31/08
Piauí Senate Election: 1st PlacePiauí Senate Election: 1st Place
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira48%SìNo
Marcelo CastroMarcelo Castro39%SìNo
$31.764 Volume 04/10
Berlin State Election WinnerBerlin State Election Winner
LinkeLinke58%SìNo
CDUCDU26%SìNo
$3,3 Mln Volume 20/09
Mato Grosso Governor Election WinnerMato Grosso Governor Election Winner
Wellington FagundesWellington Fagundes54%SìNo
Otaviano PivettaOtaviano Pivetta44%SìNo
$15.542 Volume 04/10
Cusco Mayoral Election WinnerCusco Mayoral Election Winner
Albert Aníbal Arenas YabarAlbert Aníbal Arenas Yabar30%SìNo
Sergio Sullca CondoriSergio Sullca Condori28%SìNo
$18.496 Volume 04/10
Wisconsin Governor Election WinnerWisconsin Governor Election Winner
David Crowley (D)David Crowley (D)81%SìNo
Tom Tiffany (R)Tom Tiffany (R)20%SìNo
$485.911 Volume 03/11
Florida Senate Election WinnerFlorida Senate Election Winner
Ashley Moody (R)Ashley Moody (R)92%SìNo
Angie Nixon (D)Angie Nixon (D)8%SìNo
$94.785 Volume
Ohio Senate Election WinnerOhio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D)Sherrod Brown (D)54%SìNo
Jon Husted (R)Jon Husted (R)47%SìNo
$183.413 Volume 03/11
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
59%
probabilità
Sì No
$168.196 Volume 20/09
Chiclayo Mayoral Election WinnerChiclayo Mayoral Election Winner
Edwin Gonzalo Vásquez SánchezEdwin Gonzalo Vásquez Sánchez30%SìNo
Agustín Villarreal GranadosAgustín Villarreal Granados26%SìNo
$7.332 Volume 04/10
São Paulo Senate Election: 1st PlaceSão Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place
Guilherme DerriteGuilherme Derrite46%SìNo
Simone TebetSimone Tebet31%SìNo
$24.272 Volume 04/10
Oklahoma Democratic Senate Primary WinnerOklahoma Democratic Senate Primary Winner
N’Kiyla “Jasmine” ThomasN’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas92%SìNo
Jim PriestJim Priest8%SìNo
$118.925 Volume Termina oggi
São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd PlaceSão Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place
Guilherme DerriteGuilherme Derrite35%SìNo
Marina SilvaMarina Silva32%SìNo
$23.274 Volume 04/10
NC-04 House Election WinnerNC-04 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%SìNo
Republican Party5%SìNo
$38.311 Volume 03/11
NC-12 House Election WinnerNC-12 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%SìNo
Republican Party3%SìNo
$63.605 Volume 03/11
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?
3-5%49%SìNo
5-7%42%SìNo
$8.222 Volume 06/09
Pernambuco Senate Election: 2nd PlacePernambuco Senate Election: 2nd Place
Humberto CostaHumberto Costa45%SìNo
Mendonça FilhoMendonça Filho34%SìNo
$19.540 Volume 04/10
AL-07 House Election WinnerAL-07 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%SìNo
Republican Party5%SìNo
$67.065 Volume 03/11
Latvian Parliamentary Election WinnerLatvian Parliamentary Election Winner
AS49%SìNo
SV26%SìNo
$197.599 Volume 03/10
Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary WinnerOklahoma Governor Republican Primary Winner
Mike MazzeiMike Mazzei79%SìNo
Gentner DrummondGentner Drummond21%SìNo
$529.704 Volume Termina oggi
VT-AL House Election WinnerVT-AL House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%SìNo
Republican Party5%SìNo
$39.626 Volume 03/11
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
38%
probabilità
Sì No
$373.865 Volume 06/09
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen84%SìNo
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon50%SìNo
$93.302 Volume 30/04
Florida Governor Election WinnerFlorida Governor Election Winner
Byron Donalds (R)Byron Donalds (R)80%SìNo
David Jolly (D)David Jolly (D)22%SìNo
$55.696 Volume 03/11
SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?
62-6430%SìNo
59-6129%SìNo
$7.225 Volume 12/10
Arequipa Mayoral Election WinnerArequipa Mayoral Election Winner
Andrés Eliseo Risueño PortugalAndrés Eliseo Risueño Portugal31%SìNo
Ricardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar LlosaRicardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar Llosa18%SìNo
$7.996 Volume 04/10
TX-01 House Election WinnerTX-01 House Election Winner
Republican Party95%SìNo
Democratic Party5%SìNo
$42.251 Volume 03/11
Lagos, Nigeria Governor Election WinnerLagos, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
Obafemi HamzatObafemi Hamzat87%SìNo
Rhodes-Vivour Gbadebo PatrickRhodes-Vivour Gbadebo Patrick6%SìNo
$5.387 Volume 06/02
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4727%SìNo
4914%SìNo
$2,9 Mln Volume 03/11
Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Zukan HelezZukan Helez37%SìNo
Sabina ĆudićSabina Ćudić27%SìNo
$66.847 Volume
Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st PlaceMinas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place
Marília CamposMarília Campos48%SìNo
Carlos VianaCarlos Viana13%SìNo
$17.493 Volume 04/10
Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd PlaceRio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd Place
Carlos JordyCarlos Jordy28%SìNo
Pedro PauloPedro Paulo21%SìNo
$27.110 Volume 04/10
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Charleston County WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Charleston County Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone78%SìNo
Ralph NormanRalph Norman22%SìNo
$14.284 Volume 2 giorni rimanenti
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?
49%
probabilità
Sì No
$33.521 Volume 6 giorni rimanenti
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
6%
probabilità
Sì No
$260.127 Volume 31/12
France United Left Primary WinnerFrance United Left Primary Winner
Canceled94%SìNo
François RuffinFrançois Ruffin1%SìNo
$210.633 Volume 11/10
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Éric Zemmour68%SìNo
Olivier Faure59%SìNo
$70.763 Volume 23/04
Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st PlaceSanta Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Carol de ToniCarol de Toni45%SìNo
Carlos BolsonaroCarlos Bolsonaro39%SìNo
$10.140 Volume 04/10
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FAQ sui mercati elettorali

Perché i mercati elettorali sono accurati?

Richiedono di "metterci del proprio": le persone puntano denaro sulle proprie idee, filtrando il rumore di bassa qualità. Maggiore è il volume, più affidabile è il prezzo.

Quali mercati elettorali sono attivi ora?

USA 2028, Israele (per data), elezioni locali nel Regno Unito e nell'UE, oltre alle primarie di partito. Segui la nostra pagina per gli aggiornamenti.

Come valuto il rischio nei mercati elettorali?

Controlla la liquidità (profondità dell'order book), la volatilità storica e la data della decisione. I mercati con poca liquidità tendono a un prezzo inefficiente.

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