Marchés de Prédiction Électorale

Les marchés électoraux sont au cœur de Polymarket : élections présidentielles américaines, primaires de partis, courses au Congrès, et tout vote majeur dans une démocratie. Les marchés électoraux américains de 2024 ont enregistré des milliards en volume.

Les prix combinent des sondages, des données de financement des partis, des indicateurs économiques et des rapports, le tout distillé en un seul prix. Un terrain de trading riche pour les analystes et les investisseurs guidés par l'opinion.

78 marchés actifs
Candidat à la présidentielle républicaine 2028Candidat à la présidentielle républicaine 2028
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance47%OuiNon
Marco RubioMarco Rubio20%OuiNon
$691,1 M Vol 07/11
Prochaine Élection Présidentielle FrançaiseProchaine Élection Présidentielle Française
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen32%OuiNon
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe25%OuiNon
$121,6 M Vol 30/04
Élections présidentielles au BrésilÉlections présidentielles au Brésil
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva63%OuiNon
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro34%OuiNon
$132,2 M Vol 04/10
Gagnant de l'Élection Présidentielle 2028Gagnant de l'Élection Présidentielle 2028
JD VanceJD Vance23%OuiNon
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%OuiNon
$692,2 M Vol 07/11
Candidat Démocrate à la Présidence 2028Candidat Démocrate à la Présidence 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez21%OuiNon
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom15%OuiNon
$1,3 Md Vol 07/11
Quel parti obtiendra le plus de sièges aux élections parlementaires russes ?Quel parti obtiendra le plus de sièges aux élections parlementaires russes ?
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)72%OuiNon
New People (NL)New People (NL)22%OuiNon
$21,8 M Vol 20/09
Next Prime Minister of SwedenNext Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena AnderssonMagdalena Andersson91%OuiNon
Ulf KristerssonUlf Kristersson10%OuiNon
$4 M Vol 13/09
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone65%OuiNon
Ralph NormanRalph Norman35%OuiNon
$2,9 M Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 3197%OuiNon
September 3089%OuiNon
$26,3 M Vol 31/08
Qui sera le prochain Premier ministre d'Israël après les prochaines élections ?Qui sera le prochain Premier ministre d'Israël après les prochaines élections ?
Gadi EizenkotGadi Eizenkot55%OuiNon
Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin Netanyahu26%OuiNon
$33 M Vol 31/12
Texas Senate Election WinnerTexas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D)James Talarico (D)51%OuiNon
Ken Paxton (R)Ken Paxton (R)50%OuiNon
$915,5 k Vol 03/11
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep48%OuiNon
R Senate, D House39%OuiNon
$10,4 M Vol 03/11
Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold? Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
1%
de chance
Oui Non
$128,2 k Vol 20/09
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election WinnerRio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
Eduardo PaesEduardo Paes94%OuiNon
Douglas RuasDouglas Ruas5%OuiNon
$419,1 k Vol 05/10
How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?
325–33941%OuiNon
340–35422%OuiNon
$211,2 k Vol 20/09
Michigan Senate Election WinnerMichigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D)Abdul El-Sayed (D)61%OuiNon
Mike Rogers (R)Mike Rogers (R)39%OuiNon
$587,2 k Vol 03/11
Quel parti remportera la Chambre des représentants en 2026 ?Quel parti remportera la Chambre des représentants en 2026 ?
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party89%OuiNon
Republican PartyRepublican Party12%OuiNon
$14,2 k Vol 03/11
Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?
David Morales52%OuiNon
Brett Smiley46%OuiNon
$22,6 k Vol 09/09
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Scott JenningsScott Jennings25%OuiNon
Anna KellyAnna Kelly17%OuiNon
$149,6 k Vol 31/12
Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner
Ricardo Ferraço78%OuiNon
Lorenzo Pazolini16%OuiNon
$30,4 k Vol 05/10
Rhode Island Governor Democratic Primary WinnerRhode Island Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Helena FoulkesHelena Foulkes94%OuiNon
Dan McKeeDan McKee5%OuiNon
$39,2 k Vol 08/09
Russia Parliamentary Election WinnerRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)99%OuiNon
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)1%OuiNon
$3,3 M Vol 20/09
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3196%OuiNon
September 3093%OuiNon
$356,8 k Vol 01/01
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon96%OuiNon
Nathalie ArthaudNathalie Arthaud89%OuiNon
$312,5 k Vol 17/04
Nigerian Presidential Election WinnerNigerian Presidential Election Winner
Bola TinubuBola Tinubu70%OuiNon
Peter ObiPeter Obi24%OuiNon
$113,7 k Vol 16/01
Amazonas Senate Election: 1st PlaceAmazonas Senate Election: 1st Place
Eduardo BragaEduardo Braga72%OuiNon
Capitão Alberto NetoCapitão Alberto Neto17%OuiNon
$16,7 k Vol 04/10
Piauí Senate Election: 2nd PlacePiauí Senate Election: 2nd Place
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira43%OuiNon
Marcelo CastroMarcelo Castro21%OuiNon
$20,7 k Vol 04/10
Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?
125-12830%OuiNon
121-12423%OuiNon
$10,8 k Vol 12/10
Colima Governor Election WinnerColima Governor Election Winner
Rosa María Bayardo CabreraRosa María Bayardo Cabrera57%OuiNon
Griselda Martínez MartínezGriselda Martínez Martínez10%OuiNon
$27,5 k Vol 06/06
Tocantins Senate Election: 2nd PlaceTocantins Senate Election: 2nd Place
Alexandre GuimarãesAlexandre Guimarães41%OuiNon
GaguimGaguim40%OuiNon
$17 k Vol 04/10
Tocantins Governor Election WinnerTocantins Governor Election Winner
Professora DorinhaProfessora Dorinha57%OuiNon
Vicentinho JúniorVicentinho Júnior40%OuiNon
$15,3 k Vol 04/10
Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st PlaceRio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place
Carlos JordyCarlos Jordy48%OuiNon
Benedita da SilvaBenedita da Silva48%OuiNon
$25,2 k Vol 04/10
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro86%OuiNon
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva5%OuiNon
$5,2 M Vol 04/10
IN-07 House Election WinnerIN-07 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%OuiNon
Republican Party5%OuiNon
$29,6 k Vol 03/11
San Luis Potosí Governor Election WinnerSan Luis Potosí Governor Election Winner
Ruth González SilvaRuth González Silva53%OuiNon
Gerardo Sánchez ZumayaGerardo Sánchez Zumaya10%OuiNon
$21 k Vol 06/06
WA-09 House Election WinnerWA-09 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%OuiNon
Republican Party3%OuiNon
$49,4 k Vol 03/11
Rondônia Senate Election: 1st PlaceRondônia Senate Election: 1st Place
Dr. Fernando MáximoDr. Fernando Máximo38%OuiNon
Sílvia CristinaSílvia Cristina38%OuiNon
$23,1 k Vol 04/10
Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Vote Share?Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Vote Share?
5-7%63%OuiNon
7-9%25%OuiNon
$14,8 k Vol 13/09
MA-08 Democratic Primary WinnerMA-08 Democratic Primary Winner
Stephen LynchStephen Lynch50%OuiNon
Patrick RoathPatrick Roath48%OuiNon
$31,5 k Vol 01/09
Netanyahu hors de ses fonctions d'ici... ?Netanyahu hors de ses fonctions d'ici... ?
December 3149%OuiNon
May 311%OuiNon
$7,1 k Vol 01/01
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election WinnerChicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner
Daniel GobeilDaniel Gobeil75%OuiNon
Caroline DubéCaroline Dubé24%OuiNon
$42,3 k Vol 31/08
Piauí Senate Election: 1st PlacePiauí Senate Election: 1st Place
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira48%OuiNon
Marcelo CastroMarcelo Castro39%OuiNon
$31,8 k Vol 04/10
Berlin State Election WinnerBerlin State Election Winner
LinkeLinke58%OuiNon
CDUCDU26%OuiNon
$3,3 M Vol 20/09
Mato Grosso Governor Election WinnerMato Grosso Governor Election Winner
Wellington FagundesWellington Fagundes54%OuiNon
Otaviano PivettaOtaviano Pivetta44%OuiNon
$15,5 k Vol 04/10
Cusco Mayoral Election WinnerCusco Mayoral Election Winner
Albert Aníbal Arenas YabarAlbert Aníbal Arenas Yabar30%OuiNon
Sergio Sullca CondoriSergio Sullca Condori28%OuiNon
$18,5 k Vol 04/10
Wisconsin Governor Election WinnerWisconsin Governor Election Winner
David Crowley (D)David Crowley (D)81%OuiNon
Tom Tiffany (R)Tom Tiffany (R)20%OuiNon
$485,9 k Vol 03/11
Florida Senate Election WinnerFlorida Senate Election Winner
Ashley Moody (R)Ashley Moody (R)92%OuiNon
Angie Nixon (D)Angie Nixon (D)8%OuiNon
$94,8 k Vol
Ohio Senate Election WinnerOhio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D)Sherrod Brown (D)54%OuiNon
Jon Husted (R)Jon Husted (R)47%OuiNon
$183,4 k Vol 03/11
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
59%
de chance
Oui Non
$168,2 k Vol 20/09
Chiclayo Mayoral Election WinnerChiclayo Mayoral Election Winner
Edwin Gonzalo Vásquez SánchezEdwin Gonzalo Vásquez Sánchez30%OuiNon
Agustín Villarreal GranadosAgustín Villarreal Granados26%OuiNon
$7,3 k Vol 04/10
São Paulo Senate Election: 1st PlaceSão Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place
Guilherme DerriteGuilherme Derrite46%OuiNon
Simone TebetSimone Tebet31%OuiNon
$24,3 k Vol 04/10
Oklahoma Democratic Senate Primary WinnerOklahoma Democratic Senate Primary Winner
N’Kiyla “Jasmine” ThomasN’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas92%OuiNon
Jim PriestJim Priest8%OuiNon
$118,9 k Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd PlaceSão Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place
Guilherme DerriteGuilherme Derrite35%OuiNon
Marina SilvaMarina Silva32%OuiNon
$23,3 k Vol 04/10
NC-04 House Election WinnerNC-04 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%OuiNon
Republican Party5%OuiNon
$38,3 k Vol 03/11
NC-12 House Election WinnerNC-12 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%OuiNon
Republican Party3%OuiNon
$63,6 k Vol 03/11
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?
3-5%49%OuiNon
5-7%42%OuiNon
$8,2 k Vol 06/09
Pernambuco Senate Election: 2nd PlacePernambuco Senate Election: 2nd Place
Humberto CostaHumberto Costa45%OuiNon
Mendonça FilhoMendonça Filho34%OuiNon
$19,5 k Vol 04/10
AL-07 House Election WinnerAL-07 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%OuiNon
Republican Party5%OuiNon
$67,1 k Vol 03/11
Latvian Parliamentary Election WinnerLatvian Parliamentary Election Winner
AS49%OuiNon
SV26%OuiNon
$197,6 k Vol 03/10
Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary WinnerOklahoma Governor Republican Primary Winner
Mike MazzeiMike Mazzei79%OuiNon
Gentner DrummondGentner Drummond21%OuiNon
$529,7 k Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
VT-AL House Election WinnerVT-AL House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%OuiNon
Republican Party5%OuiNon
$39,6 k Vol 03/11
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
38%
de chance
Oui Non
$373,9 k Vol 06/09
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen84%OuiNon
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon50%OuiNon
$93,3 k Vol 30/04
Florida Governor Election WinnerFlorida Governor Election Winner
Byron Donalds (R)Byron Donalds (R)80%OuiNon
David Jolly (D)David Jolly (D)22%OuiNon
$55,7 k Vol 03/11
SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?
62-6430%OuiNon
59-6129%OuiNon
$7,2 k Vol 12/10
Arequipa Mayoral Election WinnerArequipa Mayoral Election Winner
Andrés Eliseo Risueño PortugalAndrés Eliseo Risueño Portugal31%OuiNon
Ricardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar LlosaRicardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar Llosa18%OuiNon
$8 k Vol 04/10
TX-01 House Election WinnerTX-01 House Election Winner
Republican Party95%OuiNon
Democratic Party5%OuiNon
$42,3 k Vol 03/11
Lagos, Nigeria Governor Election WinnerLagos, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
Obafemi HamzatObafemi Hamzat87%OuiNon
Rhodes-Vivour Gbadebo PatrickRhodes-Vivour Gbadebo Patrick6%OuiNon
$5,4 k Vol 06/02
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4727%OuiNon
4914%OuiNon
$2,9 M Vol 03/11
Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Zukan HelezZukan Helez37%OuiNon
Sabina ĆudićSabina Ćudić27%OuiNon
$66,8 k Vol
Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st PlaceMinas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place
Marília CamposMarília Campos48%OuiNon
Carlos VianaCarlos Viana13%OuiNon
$17,5 k Vol 04/10
Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd PlaceRio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd Place
Carlos JordyCarlos Jordy28%OuiNon
Pedro PauloPedro Paulo21%OuiNon
$27,1 k Vol 04/10
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Charleston County WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Charleston County Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone78%OuiNon
Ralph NormanRalph Norman22%OuiNon
$14,3 k Vol 2 jours restants
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?
49%
de chance
Oui Non
$33,5 k Vol 6 jours restants
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
6%
de chance
Oui Non
$260,1 k Vol 31/12
France United Left Primary WinnerFrance United Left Primary Winner
Canceled94%OuiNon
François RuffinFrançois Ruffin1%OuiNon
$210,6 k Vol 11/10
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Éric Zemmour68%OuiNon
Olivier Faure59%OuiNon
$70,8 k Vol 23/04
Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st PlaceSanta Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Carol de ToniCarol de Toni45%OuiNon
Carlos BolsonaroCarlos Bolsonaro39%OuiNon
$10,1 k Vol 04/10
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FAQ sur les Marchés Électoraux

Pourquoi les marchés électoraux sont-ils précis ?

Ils nécessitent un 'investissement personnel' : les gens mettent de l'argent sur leurs opinions, filtrant le bruit de faible qualité. Plus le volume est important, plus le prix est fiable.

Quels marchés électoraux sont en direct maintenant ?

États-Unis 2028, Israël (par date), élections locales au Royaume-Uni et dans l'UE, ainsi que les primaires de partis. Suivez notre page pour des mises à jour.

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Vérifiez la liquidité (profondeur du carnet d'ordres), la volatilité historique et la date de décision. Les marchés à faible liquidité sont sujets à une tarification inefficace.

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