Pasar Prediksi Pemilu

Pasar pemilu adalah inti dari Polymarket: pemilihan presiden AS, pemilihan partai, perlombaan kongres, dan suara dari setiap demokrasi besar. Pasar pemilu AS 2024 mencatat miliaran dalam volume.

Penetapan harga menggabungkan jajak pendapat, data keuangan partai, indikator ekonomi, dan laporan, semuanya disaring menjadi satu harga. Tanah perdagangan yang kaya bagi analis dan investor yang dipandu opini.

78 pasar aktif
Nominee Presiden Republik 2028Nominee Presiden Republik 2028
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance47%YaTidak
Marco RubioMarco Rubio20%YaTidak
$691,1 jt Volume 07/11
Pemilihan Presiden Prancis SelanjutnyaPemilihan Presiden Prancis Selanjutnya
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen32%YaTidak
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe25%YaTidak
$121,6 jt Volume 30/04
Pemilihan Presiden BrasilPemilihan Presiden Brasil
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva63%YaTidak
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro34%YaTidak
$132,2 jt Volume 04/10
Pemenang Pemilihan Presiden 2028Pemenang Pemilihan Presiden 2028
JD VanceJD Vance23%YaTidak
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%YaTidak
$692,2 jt Volume 07/11
Calon Presiden Demokrat 2028Calon Presiden Demokrat 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez21%YaTidak
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom15%YaTidak
$1,3 miliar Volume 07/11
Partai mana yang akan memperoleh kursi terbanyak dalam Pemilu Parlemen Rusia?Partai mana yang akan memperoleh kursi terbanyak dalam Pemilu Parlemen Rusia?
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)72%YaTidak
New People (NL)New People (NL)22%YaTidak
$21,8 jt Volume 20/09
Next Prime Minister of SwedenNext Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena AnderssonMagdalena Andersson91%YaTidak
Ulf KristerssonUlf Kristersson10%YaTidak
$4 jt Volume 13/09
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone65%YaTidak
Ralph NormanRalph Norman35%YaTidak
$2,9 jt Volume Berakhir hari ini
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 3197%YaTidak
September 3089%YaTidak
$26,3 jt Volume 31/08
Siapa yang akan menjadi Perdana Menteri Israel berikutnya setelah pemilihan mendatang?Siapa yang akan menjadi Perdana Menteri Israel berikutnya setelah pemilihan mendatang?
Gadi EizenkotGadi Eizenkot55%YaTidak
Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin Netanyahu26%YaTidak
$33 jt Volume 31/12
Texas Senate Election WinnerTexas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D)James Talarico (D)51%YaTidak
Ken Paxton (R)Ken Paxton (R)50%YaTidak
$915,5 rb Volume 03/11
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep48%YaTidak
R Senate, D House39%YaTidak
$10,4 jt Volume 03/11
Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold? Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
1%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$128,2 rb Volume 20/09
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election WinnerRio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
Eduardo PaesEduardo Paes94%YaTidak
Douglas RuasDouglas Ruas5%YaTidak
$419,1 rb Volume 05/10
How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?
325–33941%YaTidak
340–35422%YaTidak
$211,2 rb Volume 20/09
Michigan Senate Election WinnerMichigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D)Abdul El-Sayed (D)61%YaTidak
Mike Rogers (R)Mike Rogers (R)39%YaTidak
$587,2 rb Volume 03/11
Partai mana yang akan memenangkan Dewan Perwakilan pada 2026?Partai mana yang akan memenangkan Dewan Perwakilan pada 2026?
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party89%YaTidak
Republican PartyRepublican Party12%YaTidak
$14,2 rb Volume 03/11
Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?
David Morales52%YaTidak
Brett Smiley46%YaTidak
$22,6 rb Volume 09/09
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Scott JenningsScott Jennings25%YaTidak
Anna KellyAnna Kelly17%YaTidak
$149,6 rb Volume 31/12
Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner
Ricardo Ferraço78%YaTidak
Lorenzo Pazolini16%YaTidak
$30,4 rb Volume 05/10
Rhode Island Governor Democratic Primary WinnerRhode Island Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Helena FoulkesHelena Foulkes94%YaTidak
Dan McKeeDan McKee5%YaTidak
$39,2 rb Volume 08/09
Russia Parliamentary Election WinnerRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)99%YaTidak
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)1%YaTidak
$3,3 jt Volume 20/09
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3196%YaTidak
September 3093%YaTidak
$356,8 rb Volume 01/01
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon96%YaTidak
Nathalie ArthaudNathalie Arthaud89%YaTidak
$312,5 rb Volume 17/04
Nigerian Presidential Election WinnerNigerian Presidential Election Winner
Bola TinubuBola Tinubu70%YaTidak
Peter ObiPeter Obi24%YaTidak
$113,7 rb Volume 16/01
Amazonas Senate Election: 1st PlaceAmazonas Senate Election: 1st Place
Eduardo BragaEduardo Braga72%YaTidak
Capitão Alberto NetoCapitão Alberto Neto17%YaTidak
$16,7 rb Volume 04/10
Piauí Senate Election: 2nd PlacePiauí Senate Election: 2nd Place
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira43%YaTidak
Marcelo CastroMarcelo Castro21%YaTidak
$20,7 rb Volume 04/10
Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?
125-12830%YaTidak
121-12423%YaTidak
$10,8 rb Volume 12/10
Colima Governor Election WinnerColima Governor Election Winner
Rosa María Bayardo CabreraRosa María Bayardo Cabrera57%YaTidak
Griselda Martínez MartínezGriselda Martínez Martínez10%YaTidak
$27,5 rb Volume 06/06
Tocantins Senate Election: 2nd PlaceTocantins Senate Election: 2nd Place
Alexandre GuimarãesAlexandre Guimarães41%YaTidak
GaguimGaguim40%YaTidak
$17 rb Volume 04/10
Tocantins Governor Election WinnerTocantins Governor Election Winner
Professora DorinhaProfessora Dorinha57%YaTidak
Vicentinho JúniorVicentinho Júnior40%YaTidak
$15,3 rb Volume 04/10
Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st PlaceRio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place
Carlos JordyCarlos Jordy48%YaTidak
Benedita da SilvaBenedita da Silva48%YaTidak
$25,2 rb Volume 04/10
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro86%YaTidak
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva5%YaTidak
$5,2 jt Volume 04/10
IN-07 House Election WinnerIN-07 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%YaTidak
Republican Party5%YaTidak
$29,6 rb Volume 03/11
San Luis Potosí Governor Election WinnerSan Luis Potosí Governor Election Winner
Ruth González SilvaRuth González Silva53%YaTidak
Gerardo Sánchez ZumayaGerardo Sánchez Zumaya10%YaTidak
$21 rb Volume 06/06
WA-09 House Election WinnerWA-09 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%YaTidak
Republican Party3%YaTidak
$49,4 rb Volume 03/11
Rondônia Senate Election: 1st PlaceRondônia Senate Election: 1st Place
Dr. Fernando MáximoDr. Fernando Máximo38%YaTidak
Sílvia CristinaSílvia Cristina38%YaTidak
$23,1 rb Volume 04/10
Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Vote Share?Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Vote Share?
5-7%63%YaTidak
7-9%25%YaTidak
$14,8 rb Volume 13/09
MA-08 Democratic Primary WinnerMA-08 Democratic Primary Winner
Stephen LynchStephen Lynch50%YaTidak
Patrick RoathPatrick Roath48%YaTidak
$31,5 rb Volume 01/09
Akankah Netanyahu lengser sebelum...?Akankah Netanyahu lengser sebelum...?
December 3149%YaTidak
May 311%YaTidak
$7,1 rb Volume 01/01
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election WinnerChicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner
Daniel GobeilDaniel Gobeil75%YaTidak
Caroline DubéCaroline Dubé24%YaTidak
$42,3 rb Volume 31/08
Piauí Senate Election: 1st PlacePiauí Senate Election: 1st Place
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira48%YaTidak
Marcelo CastroMarcelo Castro39%YaTidak
$31,8 rb Volume 04/10
Berlin State Election WinnerBerlin State Election Winner
LinkeLinke58%YaTidak
CDUCDU26%YaTidak
$3,3 jt Volume 20/09
Mato Grosso Governor Election WinnerMato Grosso Governor Election Winner
Wellington FagundesWellington Fagundes54%YaTidak
Otaviano PivettaOtaviano Pivetta44%YaTidak
$15,5 rb Volume 04/10
Cusco Mayoral Election WinnerCusco Mayoral Election Winner
Albert Aníbal Arenas YabarAlbert Aníbal Arenas Yabar30%YaTidak
Sergio Sullca CondoriSergio Sullca Condori28%YaTidak
$18,5 rb Volume 04/10
Wisconsin Governor Election WinnerWisconsin Governor Election Winner
David Crowley (D)David Crowley (D)81%YaTidak
Tom Tiffany (R)Tom Tiffany (R)20%YaTidak
$485,9 rb Volume 03/11
Florida Senate Election WinnerFlorida Senate Election Winner
Ashley Moody (R)Ashley Moody (R)92%YaTidak
Angie Nixon (D)Angie Nixon (D)8%YaTidak
$94,8 rb Volume
Ohio Senate Election WinnerOhio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D)Sherrod Brown (D)54%YaTidak
Jon Husted (R)Jon Husted (R)47%YaTidak
$183,4 rb Volume 03/11
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
59%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$168,2 rb Volume 20/09
Chiclayo Mayoral Election WinnerChiclayo Mayoral Election Winner
Edwin Gonzalo Vásquez SánchezEdwin Gonzalo Vásquez Sánchez30%YaTidak
Agustín Villarreal GranadosAgustín Villarreal Granados26%YaTidak
$7,3 rb Volume 04/10
São Paulo Senate Election: 1st PlaceSão Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place
Guilherme DerriteGuilherme Derrite46%YaTidak
Simone TebetSimone Tebet31%YaTidak
$24,3 rb Volume 04/10
Oklahoma Democratic Senate Primary WinnerOklahoma Democratic Senate Primary Winner
N’Kiyla “Jasmine” ThomasN’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas92%YaTidak
Jim PriestJim Priest8%YaTidak
$118,9 rb Volume Berakhir hari ini
São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd PlaceSão Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place
Guilherme DerriteGuilherme Derrite35%YaTidak
Marina SilvaMarina Silva32%YaTidak
$23,3 rb Volume 04/10
NC-04 House Election WinnerNC-04 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%YaTidak
Republican Party5%YaTidak
$38,3 rb Volume 03/11
NC-12 House Election WinnerNC-12 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%YaTidak
Republican Party3%YaTidak
$63,6 rb Volume 03/11
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?
3-5%49%YaTidak
5-7%42%YaTidak
$8,2 rb Volume 06/09
Pernambuco Senate Election: 2nd PlacePernambuco Senate Election: 2nd Place
Humberto CostaHumberto Costa45%YaTidak
Mendonça FilhoMendonça Filho34%YaTidak
$19,5 rb Volume 04/10
AL-07 House Election WinnerAL-07 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%YaTidak
Republican Party5%YaTidak
$67,1 rb Volume 03/11
Latvian Parliamentary Election WinnerLatvian Parliamentary Election Winner
AS49%YaTidak
SV26%YaTidak
$197,6 rb Volume 03/10
Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary WinnerOklahoma Governor Republican Primary Winner
Mike MazzeiMike Mazzei79%YaTidak
Gentner DrummondGentner Drummond21%YaTidak
$529,7 rb Volume Berakhir hari ini
VT-AL House Election WinnerVT-AL House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%YaTidak
Republican Party5%YaTidak
$39,6 rb Volume 03/11
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
38%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$373,9 rb Volume 06/09
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen84%YaTidak
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon50%YaTidak
$93,3 rb Volume 30/04
Florida Governor Election WinnerFlorida Governor Election Winner
Byron Donalds (R)Byron Donalds (R)80%YaTidak
David Jolly (D)David Jolly (D)22%YaTidak
$55,7 rb Volume 03/11
SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?
62-6430%YaTidak
59-6129%YaTidak
$7,2 rb Volume 12/10
Arequipa Mayoral Election WinnerArequipa Mayoral Election Winner
Andrés Eliseo Risueño PortugalAndrés Eliseo Risueño Portugal31%YaTidak
Ricardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar LlosaRicardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar Llosa18%YaTidak
$8 rb Volume 04/10
TX-01 House Election WinnerTX-01 House Election Winner
Republican Party95%YaTidak
Democratic Party5%YaTidak
$42,3 rb Volume 03/11
Lagos, Nigeria Governor Election WinnerLagos, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
Obafemi HamzatObafemi Hamzat87%YaTidak
Rhodes-Vivour Gbadebo PatrickRhodes-Vivour Gbadebo Patrick6%YaTidak
$5,4 rb Volume 06/02
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4727%YaTidak
4914%YaTidak
$2,9 jt Volume 03/11
Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Zukan HelezZukan Helez37%YaTidak
Sabina ĆudićSabina Ćudić27%YaTidak
$66,8 rb Volume
Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st PlaceMinas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place
Marília CamposMarília Campos48%YaTidak
Carlos VianaCarlos Viana13%YaTidak
$17,5 rb Volume 04/10
Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd PlaceRio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd Place
Carlos JordyCarlos Jordy28%YaTidak
Pedro PauloPedro Paulo21%YaTidak
$27,1 rb Volume 04/10
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Charleston County WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Charleston County Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone78%YaTidak
Ralph NormanRalph Norman22%YaTidak
$14,3 rb Volume 2 hari tersisa
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?
49%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$33,5 rb Volume 6 hari tersisa
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
6%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$260,1 rb Volume 31/12
France United Left Primary WinnerFrance United Left Primary Winner
Canceled94%YaTidak
François RuffinFrançois Ruffin1%YaTidak
$210,6 rb Volume 11/10
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Éric Zemmour68%YaTidak
Olivier Faure59%YaTidak
$70,8 rb Volume 23/04
Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st PlaceSanta Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Carol de ToniCarol de Toni45%YaTidak
Carlos BolsonaroCarlos Bolsonaro39%YaTidak
$10,1 rb Volume 04/10
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FAQ Pasar Pemilu

Mengapa pasar pemilu akurat?

Mereka memerlukan 'skin in the game': orang-orang menaruh uang pada pandangan mereka, menyaring kebisingan berkualitas rendah. Semakin besar volumenya, semakin dapat diandalkan harganya.

Pasar pemilu mana yang sedang berlangsung sekarang?

AS 2028, Israel (berdasarkan tanggal), pemilihan lokal Inggris dan UE, serta pemilihan partai. Ikuti halaman kami untuk pembaruan.

Bagaimana cara saya menilai risiko di pasar pemilu?

Periksa likuiditas (kedalaman order-book), volatilitas historis, dan tanggal keputusan. Pasar dengan likuiditas tipis rentan terhadap penetapan harga yang tidak efisien.

Mulai Pelatihan Polymarket Secara Gratis
Perdagangkan pasar prediksi dengan uang virtual. Harga nyata, tanpa risiko. Bersaing di papan peringkat.
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500+
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