Mercados de Predicción Electoral

Los mercados electorales son el núcleo de Polymarket: elecciones presidenciales de EE. UU., primarias de partidos, carreras congresuales y cualquier voto de una democracia importante. Los mercados electorales de EE. UU. 2024 registraron miles de millones en volumen.

La fijación de precios combina encuestas, datos de financiamiento de partidos, indicadores económicos e informes, todo destilado en un solo precio. Un terreno de negociación rico tanto para analistas como para inversores impulsados por opiniones.

78 mercados activos
Candidato presidencial republicano 2028Candidato presidencial republicano 2028
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance47%SíNo
Marco RubioMarco Rubio20%SíNo
$691,1 M Vol 07/11
Próxima Elección Presidencial FrancesaPróxima Elección Presidencial Francesa
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen32%SíNo
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe25%SíNo
$121,6 M Vol 30/04
Elecciones Presidenciales de BrasilElecciones Presidenciales de Brasil
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva63%SíNo
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro34%SíNo
$132,2 M Vol 04/10
Ganador de la Elección Presidencial 2028Ganador de la Elección Presidencial 2028
JD VanceJD Vance23%SíNo
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%SíNo
$692,2 M Vol 07/11
Candidato Demócrata a la Presidencia 2028Candidato Demócrata a la Presidencia 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez21%SíNo
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom15%SíNo
$1.266,4 M Vol 07/11
¿Qué partido obtendrá más escaños en las elecciones parlamentarias rusas?¿Qué partido obtendrá más escaños en las elecciones parlamentarias rusas?
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)72%SíNo
New People (NL)New People (NL)22%SíNo
$21,8 M Vol 20/09
Next Prime Minister of SwedenNext Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena AnderssonMagdalena Andersson91%SíNo
Ulf KristerssonUlf Kristersson10%SíNo
$4 M Vol 13/09
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone65%SíNo
Ralph NormanRalph Norman35%SíNo
$2,9 M Vol Termina hoy
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 3197%SíNo
September 3089%SíNo
$26,3 M Vol 31/08
¿Quién será el próximo Primer Ministro de Israel después de las próximas elecciones?¿Quién será el próximo Primer Ministro de Israel después de las próximas elecciones?
Gadi EizenkotGadi Eizenkot55%SíNo
Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin Netanyahu26%SíNo
$33 M Vol 31/12
Texas Senate Election WinnerTexas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D)James Talarico (D)51%SíNo
Ken Paxton (R)Ken Paxton (R)50%SíNo
$915,5 mil Vol 03/11
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep48%SíNo
R Senate, D House39%SíNo
$10,4 M Vol 03/11
Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold? Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
1%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$128,2 mil Vol 20/09
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election WinnerRio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
Eduardo PaesEduardo Paes94%SíNo
Douglas RuasDouglas Ruas5%SíNo
$419,1 mil Vol 05/10
How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?
325–33941%SíNo
340–35422%SíNo
$211,2 mil Vol 20/09
Michigan Senate Election WinnerMichigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D)Abdul El-Sayed (D)61%SíNo
Mike Rogers (R)Mike Rogers (R)39%SíNo
$587,2 mil Vol 03/11
¿Qué partido ganará la Cámara de Representantes en 2026?¿Qué partido ganará la Cámara de Representantes en 2026?
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party89%SíNo
Republican PartyRepublican Party12%SíNo
$14,2 mil Vol 03/11
Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?
David Morales52%SíNo
Brett Smiley46%SíNo
$22,6 mil Vol 09/09
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Scott JenningsScott Jennings25%SíNo
Anna KellyAnna Kelly17%SíNo
$149,6 mil Vol 31/12
Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner
Ricardo Ferraço78%SíNo
Lorenzo Pazolini16%SíNo
$30,4 mil Vol 05/10
Rhode Island Governor Democratic Primary WinnerRhode Island Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Helena FoulkesHelena Foulkes94%SíNo
Dan McKeeDan McKee5%SíNo
$39,2 mil Vol 08/09
Russia Parliamentary Election WinnerRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)99%SíNo
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)1%SíNo
$3,3 M Vol 20/09
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3196%SíNo
September 3093%SíNo
$356,8 mil Vol 01/01
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon96%SíNo
Nathalie ArthaudNathalie Arthaud89%SíNo
$312,5 mil Vol 17/04
Nigerian Presidential Election WinnerNigerian Presidential Election Winner
Bola TinubuBola Tinubu70%SíNo
Peter ObiPeter Obi24%SíNo
$113,7 mil Vol 16/01
Amazonas Senate Election: 1st PlaceAmazonas Senate Election: 1st Place
Eduardo BragaEduardo Braga72%SíNo
Capitão Alberto NetoCapitão Alberto Neto17%SíNo
$16,7 mil Vol 04/10
Piauí Senate Election: 2nd PlacePiauí Senate Election: 2nd Place
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira43%SíNo
Marcelo CastroMarcelo Castro21%SíNo
$20,7 mil Vol 04/10
Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?
125-12830%SíNo
121-12423%SíNo
$10,8 mil Vol 12/10
Colima Governor Election WinnerColima Governor Election Winner
Rosa María Bayardo CabreraRosa María Bayardo Cabrera57%SíNo
Griselda Martínez MartínezGriselda Martínez Martínez10%SíNo
$27,5 mil Vol 06/06
Tocantins Senate Election: 2nd PlaceTocantins Senate Election: 2nd Place
Alexandre GuimarãesAlexandre Guimarães41%SíNo
GaguimGaguim40%SíNo
$17 mil Vol 04/10
Tocantins Governor Election WinnerTocantins Governor Election Winner
Professora DorinhaProfessora Dorinha57%SíNo
Vicentinho JúniorVicentinho Júnior40%SíNo
$15,3 mil Vol 04/10
Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st PlaceRio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place
Carlos JordyCarlos Jordy48%SíNo
Benedita da SilvaBenedita da Silva48%SíNo
$25,2 mil Vol 04/10
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro86%SíNo
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva5%SíNo
$5,2 M Vol 04/10
IN-07 House Election WinnerIN-07 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%SíNo
Republican Party5%SíNo
$29,6 mil Vol 03/11
San Luis Potosí Governor Election WinnerSan Luis Potosí Governor Election Winner
Ruth González SilvaRuth González Silva53%SíNo
Gerardo Sánchez ZumayaGerardo Sánchez Zumaya10%SíNo
$21 mil Vol 06/06
WA-09 House Election WinnerWA-09 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%SíNo
Republican Party3%SíNo
$49,4 mil Vol 03/11
Rondônia Senate Election: 1st PlaceRondônia Senate Election: 1st Place
Dr. Fernando MáximoDr. Fernando Máximo38%SíNo
Sílvia CristinaSílvia Cristina38%SíNo
$23,1 mil Vol 04/10
Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Vote Share?Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Vote Share?
5-7%63%SíNo
7-9%25%SíNo
$14,8 mil Vol 13/09
MA-08 Democratic Primary WinnerMA-08 Democratic Primary Winner
Stephen LynchStephen Lynch50%SíNo
Patrick RoathPatrick Roath48%SíNo
$31,5 mil Vol 01/09
¿Netanyahu fuera del cargo antes de...?¿Netanyahu fuera del cargo antes de...?
December 3149%SíNo
May 311%SíNo
$7,1 mil Vol 01/01
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election WinnerChicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner
Daniel GobeilDaniel Gobeil75%SíNo
Caroline DubéCaroline Dubé24%SíNo
$42,3 mil Vol 31/08
Piauí Senate Election: 1st PlacePiauí Senate Election: 1st Place
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira48%SíNo
Marcelo CastroMarcelo Castro39%SíNo
$31,8 mil Vol 04/10
Berlin State Election WinnerBerlin State Election Winner
LinkeLinke58%SíNo
CDUCDU26%SíNo
$3,3 M Vol 20/09
Mato Grosso Governor Election WinnerMato Grosso Governor Election Winner
Wellington FagundesWellington Fagundes54%SíNo
Otaviano PivettaOtaviano Pivetta44%SíNo
$15,5 mil Vol 04/10
Cusco Mayoral Election WinnerCusco Mayoral Election Winner
Albert Aníbal Arenas YabarAlbert Aníbal Arenas Yabar30%SíNo
Sergio Sullca CondoriSergio Sullca Condori28%SíNo
$18,5 mil Vol 04/10
Wisconsin Governor Election WinnerWisconsin Governor Election Winner
David Crowley (D)David Crowley (D)81%SíNo
Tom Tiffany (R)Tom Tiffany (R)20%SíNo
$485,9 mil Vol 03/11
Florida Senate Election WinnerFlorida Senate Election Winner
Ashley Moody (R)Ashley Moody (R)92%SíNo
Angie Nixon (D)Angie Nixon (D)8%SíNo
$94,8 mil Vol
Ohio Senate Election WinnerOhio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D)Sherrod Brown (D)54%SíNo
Jon Husted (R)Jon Husted (R)47%SíNo
$183,4 mil Vol 03/11
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
59%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$168,2 mil Vol 20/09
Chiclayo Mayoral Election WinnerChiclayo Mayoral Election Winner
Edwin Gonzalo Vásquez SánchezEdwin Gonzalo Vásquez Sánchez30%SíNo
Agustín Villarreal GranadosAgustín Villarreal Granados26%SíNo
$7,3 mil Vol 04/10
São Paulo Senate Election: 1st PlaceSão Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place
Guilherme DerriteGuilherme Derrite46%SíNo
Simone TebetSimone Tebet31%SíNo
$24,3 mil Vol 04/10
Oklahoma Democratic Senate Primary WinnerOklahoma Democratic Senate Primary Winner
N’Kiyla “Jasmine” ThomasN’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas92%SíNo
Jim PriestJim Priest8%SíNo
$118,9 mil Vol Termina hoy
São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd PlaceSão Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place
Guilherme DerriteGuilherme Derrite35%SíNo
Marina SilvaMarina Silva32%SíNo
$23,3 mil Vol 04/10
NC-04 House Election WinnerNC-04 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%SíNo
Republican Party5%SíNo
$38,3 mil Vol 03/11
NC-12 House Election WinnerNC-12 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%SíNo
Republican Party3%SíNo
$63,6 mil Vol 03/11
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?
3-5%49%SíNo
5-7%42%SíNo
$8,2 mil Vol 06/09
Pernambuco Senate Election: 2nd PlacePernambuco Senate Election: 2nd Place
Humberto CostaHumberto Costa45%SíNo
Mendonça FilhoMendonça Filho34%SíNo
$19,5 mil Vol 04/10
AL-07 House Election WinnerAL-07 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%SíNo
Republican Party5%SíNo
$67,1 mil Vol 03/11
Latvian Parliamentary Election WinnerLatvian Parliamentary Election Winner
AS49%SíNo
SV26%SíNo
$197,6 mil Vol 03/10
Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary WinnerOklahoma Governor Republican Primary Winner
Mike MazzeiMike Mazzei79%SíNo
Gentner DrummondGentner Drummond21%SíNo
$529,7 mil Vol Termina hoy
VT-AL House Election WinnerVT-AL House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%SíNo
Republican Party5%SíNo
$39,6 mil Vol 03/11
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
38%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$373,9 mil Vol 06/09
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen84%SíNo
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon50%SíNo
$93,3 mil Vol 30/04
Florida Governor Election WinnerFlorida Governor Election Winner
Byron Donalds (R)Byron Donalds (R)80%SíNo
David Jolly (D)David Jolly (D)22%SíNo
$55,7 mil Vol 03/11
SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?
62-6430%SíNo
59-6129%SíNo
$7,2 mil Vol 12/10
Arequipa Mayoral Election WinnerArequipa Mayoral Election Winner
Andrés Eliseo Risueño PortugalAndrés Eliseo Risueño Portugal31%SíNo
Ricardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar LlosaRicardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar Llosa18%SíNo
$8 mil Vol 04/10
TX-01 House Election WinnerTX-01 House Election Winner
Republican Party95%SíNo
Democratic Party5%SíNo
$42,3 mil Vol 03/11
Lagos, Nigeria Governor Election WinnerLagos, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
Obafemi HamzatObafemi Hamzat87%SíNo
Rhodes-Vivour Gbadebo PatrickRhodes-Vivour Gbadebo Patrick6%SíNo
$5,4 mil Vol 06/02
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4727%SíNo
4914%SíNo
$2,9 M Vol 03/11
Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Zukan HelezZukan Helez37%SíNo
Sabina ĆudićSabina Ćudić27%SíNo
$66,8 mil Vol
Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st PlaceMinas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place
Marília CamposMarília Campos48%SíNo
Carlos VianaCarlos Viana13%SíNo
$17,5 mil Vol 04/10
Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd PlaceRio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd Place
Carlos JordyCarlos Jordy28%SíNo
Pedro PauloPedro Paulo21%SíNo
$27,1 mil Vol 04/10
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Charleston County WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Charleston County Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone78%SíNo
Ralph NormanRalph Norman22%SíNo
$14,3 mil Vol 2 días restantes
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?
49%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$33,5 mil Vol 6 días restantes
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
6%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$260,1 mil Vol 31/12
France United Left Primary WinnerFrance United Left Primary Winner
Canceled94%SíNo
François RuffinFrançois Ruffin1%SíNo
$210,6 mil Vol 11/10
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Éric Zemmour68%SíNo
Olivier Faure59%SíNo
$70,8 mil Vol 23/04
Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st PlaceSanta Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Carol de ToniCarol de Toni45%SíNo
Carlos BolsonaroCarlos Bolsonaro39%SíNo
$10,1 mil Vol 04/10
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Preguntas Frecuentes sobre Mercados Electorales

¿Por qué son precisos los mercados electorales?

Requieren 'piel en el juego': las personas ponen dinero en sus opiniones, filtrando el ruido de baja calidad. Cuanto mayor sea el volumen, más confiable será el precio.

¿Qué mercados electorales están activos ahora?

EE. UU. 2028, Israel (por fecha), elecciones locales del Reino Unido y la UE, además de primarias de partidos. Sigue nuestra página para actualizaciones.

¿Cómo evalúo el riesgo en los mercados electorales?

Verifica la liquidez (profundidad del libro de órdenes), la volatilidad histórica y la fecha de decisión. Los mercados con poca liquidez son propensos a precios ineficientes.

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