选举预测市场

选举市场是Polymarket的核心：美国总统、党内初选、国会竞选，以及任何主要民主国家的投票。2024年美国选举市场的交易量达数十亿。

定价结合了民调、党派财务数据、经济指标和报道，所有信息都浓缩成一个价格。为分析师和以观点驱动的投资者提供了丰富的交易基础。

70 活跃市场
下一届法国总统选举下一届法国总统选举
玛丽娜·勒庞玛丽娜·勒庞31%是否
爱德华·菲利普爱德华·菲利普25%是否
$1.2亿 成交量 30/04
2028年共和党总统候选人提名2028年共和党总统候选人提名
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance47%是否
Marco RubioMarco Rubio20%是否
$6.9亿 成交量 07/11
巴西总统选举巴西总统选举
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达·席尔瓦路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达·席尔瓦63%是否
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗弗拉维奥·博索纳罗35%是否
$1.3亿 成交量 04/10
2028年民主党总统候选人2028年民主党总统候选人
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez21%是否
Jon OssoffJon Ossoff15%是否
$12.7亿 成交量 07/11
2028年总统选举获胜者2028年总统选举获胜者
JD VanceJD Vance23%是否
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%是否
$6.9亿 成交量 07/11
哪个政党将在俄罗斯议会选举中获得最多席位？哪个政党将在俄罗斯议会选举中获得最多席位？
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)73%是否
New People (NL)New People (NL)21%是否
$2,183.7万 成交量 20/09
Next Prime Minister of SwedenNext Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena AnderssonMagdalena Andersson90%是否
Ulf KristerssonUlf Kristersson10%是否
$404.4万 成交量 13/09
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone66%是否
Ralph NormanRalph Norman35%是否
$294.2万 成交量 今日截止
以色列下次选举后，谁将成为下任总理？以色列下次选举后，谁将成为下任总理？
加迪·埃伊森科特加迪·埃伊森科特55%是否
本杰明·内塔尼亚胡本杰明·内塔尼亚胡27%是否
$3,300.6万 成交量 31/12
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 3197%是否
September 3089%是否
$2,627.5万 成交量 31/08
Texas Senate Election WinnerTexas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D)James Talarico (D)51%是否
Ken Paxton (R)Ken Paxton (R)50%是否
$91.7万 成交量 03/11
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep48%是否
R Senate, D House39%是否
$1,040.1万 成交量 03/11
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election WinnerRio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
Eduardo PaesEduardo Paes94%是否
Douglas RuasDouglas Ruas5%是否
$41.9万 成交量 05/10
Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold? Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
1%
概率
是 否
$12.8万 成交量 20/09
How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?
325–33941%是否
340–35422%是否
$21.1万 成交量 20/09
Michigan Senate Election WinnerMichigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D)Abdul El-Sayed (D)62%是否
Mike Rogers (R)Mike Rogers (R)39%是否
$58.8万 成交量 03/11
2026年哪个党将赢得众议院？2026年哪个党将赢得众议院？
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party89%是否
Republican PartyRepublican Party13%是否
$1.3万 成交量 03/11
Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?
David Morales53%是否
Brett Smiley47%是否
$2.3万 成交量 09/09
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Spencer PrattSpencer Pratt40%是否
Lara TrumpLara Trump40%是否
$15.2万 成交量 31/12
Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner
Ricardo Ferraço83%是否
Lorenzo Pazolini10%是否
$3.1万 成交量 05/10
Rhode Island Governor Democratic Primary WinnerRhode Island Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Helena FoulkesHelena Foulkes94%是否
Dan McKeeDan McKee5%是否
$3.9万 成交量 08/09
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon97%是否
Nathalie ArthaudNathalie Arthaud88%是否
$31.3万 成交量 17/04
Amazonas Senate Election: 1st PlaceAmazonas Senate Election: 1st Place
Eduardo BragaEduardo Braga72%是否
Capitão Alberto NetoCapitão Alberto Neto11%是否
$1.7万 成交量 04/10
Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?
125-12825%是否
121-12423%是否
$1.1万 成交量 12/10
Piauí Senate Election: 2nd PlacePiauí Senate Election: 2nd Place
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira43%是否
Marcelo CastroMarcelo Castro21%是否
$2.1万 成交量 04/10
Tocantins Senate Election: 2nd PlaceTocantins Senate Election: 2nd Place
Alexandre GuimarãesAlexandre Guimarães47%是否
GaguimGaguim37%是否
$1.7万 成交量 04/10
Colima Governor Election WinnerColima Governor Election Winner
Rosa María Bayardo CabreraRosa María Bayardo Cabrera58%是否
Griselda Martínez MartínezGriselda Martínez Martínez10%是否
$2.8万 成交量 06/06
Russia Parliamentary Election WinnerRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)99%是否
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)1%是否
$326.8万 成交量 20/09
Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st PlaceRio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place
Benedita da SilvaBenedita da Silva51%是否
Carlos JordyCarlos Jordy40%是否
$2.5万 成交量 04/10
Tocantins Governor Election WinnerTocantins Governor Election Winner
Professora DorinhaProfessora Dorinha61%是否
Vicentinho JúniorVicentinho Júnior39%是否
$1.5万 成交量 04/10
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3196%是否
September 3093%是否
$35.7万 成交量 01/01
IN-07 House Election WinnerIN-07 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%是否
Republican Party5%是否
$3万 成交量 03/11
Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary WinnerOklahoma Governor Republican Primary Winner
Mike MazzeiMike Mazzei79%是否
Gentner DrummondGentner Drummond22%是否
$53.3万 成交量 今日截止
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro86%是否
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva6%是否
$523.4万 成交量 04/10
WA-09 House Election WinnerWA-09 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%是否
Republican Party3%是否
$4.9万 成交量 03/11
Rondônia Senate Election: 1st PlaceRondônia Senate Election: 1st Place
Dr. Fernando MáximoDr. Fernando Máximo43%是否
Sílvia CristinaSílvia Cristina38%是否
$2.3万 成交量 04/10
Wisconsin Governor Election WinnerWisconsin Governor Election Winner
David Crowley (D)David Crowley (D)81%是否
Tom Tiffany (R)Tom Tiffany (R)20%是否
$48.7万 成交量 03/11
Piauí Senate Election: 1st PlacePiauí Senate Election: 1st Place
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira47%是否
Marcelo CastroMarcelo Castro39%是否
$3.2万 成交量 04/10
Netanyahu会在...前下台吗？Netanyahu会在...前下台吗？
December 3149%是否
May 311%是否
$7,090 成交量 01/01
Mato Grosso Governor Election WinnerMato Grosso Governor Election Winner
Wellington FagundesWellington Fagundes55%是否
Otaviano PivettaOtaviano Pivetta45%是否
$1.6万 成交量 04/10
Ohio Senate Election WinnerOhio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D)Sherrod Brown (D)54%是否
Jon Husted (R)Jon Husted (R)47%是否
$18.4万 成交量 03/11
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election WinnerChicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner
Daniel GobeilDaniel Gobeil75%是否
Caroline DubéCaroline Dubé24%是否
$4.2万 成交量 31/08
Cusco Mayoral Election WinnerCusco Mayoral Election Winner
Albert Aníbal Arenas YabarAlbert Aníbal Arenas Yabar30%是否
William Peña FarfánWilliam Peña Farfán23%是否
$1.8万 成交量 04/10
São Paulo Senate Election: 1st PlaceSão Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place
Guilherme DerriteGuilherme Derrite46%是否
Simone TebetSimone Tebet33%是否
$2.5万 成交量 04/10
Florida Senate Election WinnerFlorida Senate Election Winner
Ashley Moody (R)Ashley Moody (R)92%是否
Angie Nixon (D)Angie Nixon (D)8%是否
$9.5万 成交量
MA-08 Democratic Primary WinnerMA-08 Democratic Primary Winner
Stephen LynchStephen Lynch57%是否
Patrick RoathPatrick Roath43%是否
$3.2万 成交量 01/09
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
59%
概率
是 否
$16.8万 成交量 20/09
Chiclayo Mayoral Election WinnerChiclayo Mayoral Election Winner
Edwin Gonzalo Vásquez SánchezEdwin Gonzalo Vásquez Sánchez38%是否
Agustín Villarreal GranadosAgustín Villarreal Granados26%是否
$7,332 成交量 04/10
Berlin State Election WinnerBerlin State Election Winner
LinkeLinke58%是否
CDUCDU26%是否
$332.9万 成交量 20/09
São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd PlaceSão Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place
Guilherme DerriteGuilherme Derrite36%是否
Marina SilvaMarina Silva32%是否
$2.3万 成交量 04/10
Oklahoma Democratic Senate Primary WinnerOklahoma Democratic Senate Primary Winner
N’Kiyla “Jasmine” ThomasN’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas92%是否
Jim PriestJim Priest8%是否
$11.9万 成交量 今日截止
NC-04 House Election WinnerNC-04 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%是否
Republican Party5%是否
$3.8万 成交量 03/11
NC-12 House Election WinnerNC-12 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%是否
Republican Party3%是否
$6.4万 成交量 03/11
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen84%是否
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon50%是否
$9.4万 成交量 30/04
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?
3-5%49%是否
5-7%42%是否
$8,286 成交量 06/09
AL-07 House Election WinnerAL-07 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%是否
Republican Party5%是否
$6.7万 成交量 03/11
Florida Governor Election WinnerFlorida Governor Election Winner
Byron Donalds (R)Byron Donalds (R)80%是否
David Jolly (D)David Jolly (D)22%是否
$5.6万 成交量 03/11
Latvian Parliamentary Election WinnerLatvian Parliamentary Election Winner
AS50%是否
SV26%是否
$19.8万 成交量 03/10
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
38%
概率
是 否
$37.4万 成交量 06/09
VT-AL House Election WinnerVT-AL House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%是否
Republican Party5%是否
$4万 成交量 03/11
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?
52%
概率
是 否
$3.4万 成交量 还剩 6 天
SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?
62-6430%是否
59-6129%是否
$7,225 成交量 12/10
Arequipa Mayoral Election WinnerArequipa Mayoral Election Winner
Ricardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar LlosaRicardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar Llosa18%是否
Tomás Job Delgado ZúñigaTomás Job Delgado Zúñiga8%是否
$8,076 成交量 04/10
TX-01 House Election WinnerTX-01 House Election Winner
Republican Party95%是否
Democratic Party5%是否
$4.2万 成交量 03/11
Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd PlaceRio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd Place
Carlos JordyCarlos Jordy29%是否
Pedro PauloPedro Paulo21%是否
$2.7万 成交量 04/10
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4727%是否
4914%是否
$286.4万 成交量 03/11
Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Zukan HelezZukan Helez27%是否
Radovan ViškovićRadovan Višković25%是否
$6.7万 成交量
France United Left Primary WinnerFrance United Left Primary Winner
Canceled94%是否
Marine TondelierMarine Tondelier2%是否
$21.1万 成交量 11/10
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Charleston County WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Charleston County Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone78%是否
Ralph NormanRalph Norman22%是否
$1.4万 成交量 还剩 2 天
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
6%
概率
是 否
$26万 成交量 31/12
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选举市场常见问题

为什么选举市场准确？

它们需要“投入真实资金”：人们将钱投入他们的观点，从而过滤掉低质量的噪音。交易量越大，价格越可靠。

现在有哪些选举市场在进行？

美国2028年、以色列（按日期）、英国和欧盟地方选举，以及党内初选。请关注我们的页面以获取更新。

我如何在选举市场中定价风险？

检查流动性（订单簿深度）、历史波动性和决策日期。流动性不足的市场容易出现低效定价。

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