選挙予測市場

選挙市場はポリマーケットの中核です：米国大統領、政党予備選、議会選挙、そして主要な民主主義の投票。2024年の米国選挙市場は数十億の取引量を記録しました。

価格は世論調査、政党の資金データ、経済指標、報告を組み合わせており、すべてが一つの価格に凝縮されています。アナリストや意見主導の投資家にとって豊かな取引の場です。

78 アクティブなマーケット
2028年共和党大統領候補指名2028年共和党大統領候補指名
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance47%はいいいえ
Marco RubioMarco Rubio20%はいいいえ
$6.9億 取引高 07/11
次のフランス大統領選挙次のフランス大統領選挙
マリーヌ・ルペンマリーヌ・ルペン32%はいいいえ
エドゥアール・フィリップエドゥアール・フィリップ25%はいいいえ
$1.2億 取引高 30/04
ブラジル大統領選挙ブラジル大統領選挙
ルイーズ・イナシオ・ルーラ・ダ・シルバルイーズ・イナシオ・ルーラ・ダ・シルバ63%はいいいえ
フラビオ・ボルソナロフラビオ・ボルソナロ34%はいいいえ
$1.3億 取引高 04/10
2028年大統領選挙勝者2028年大統領選挙勝者
JD VanceJD Vance23%はいいいえ
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%はいいいえ
$6.9億 取引高 07/11
2028年民主党大統領候補2028年民主党大統領候補
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez21%はいいいえ
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom15%はいいいえ
$12.7億 取引高 07/11
ロシア議会選挙で最も議席を増やす政党は？ロシア議会選挙で最も議席を増やす政党は？
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)72%はいいいえ
New People (NL)New People (NL)22%はいいいえ
$2,176.8万 取引高 20/09
Next Prime Minister of SwedenNext Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena AnderssonMagdalena Andersson91%はいいいえ
Ulf KristerssonUlf Kristersson10%はいいいえ
$401.6万 取引高 13/09
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone65%はいいいえ
Ralph NormanRalph Norman35%はいいいえ
$293.5万 取引高 本日終了
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 3197%はいいいえ
September 3089%はいいいえ
$2,627.1万 取引高 31/08
次の選挙後、イスラエルの次期首相は誰になるのか？次の選挙後、イスラエルの次期首相は誰になるのか？
ガディ・エイゼンコットガディ・エイゼンコット55%はいいいえ
ベンジャミン・ネタニヤフベンジャミン・ネタニヤフ26%はいいいえ
$3,299.2万 取引高 31/12
Texas Senate Election WinnerTexas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D)James Talarico (D)51%はいいいえ
Ken Paxton (R)Ken Paxton (R)50%はいいいえ
$91.5万 取引高 03/11
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep48%はいいいえ
R Senate, D House39%はいいいえ
$1,039.7万 取引高 03/11
Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold? Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
1%
確率
はい いいえ
$12.8万 取引高 20/09
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election WinnerRio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
Eduardo PaesEduardo Paes94%はいいいえ
Douglas RuasDouglas Ruas5%はいいいえ
$41.9万 取引高 05/10
How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?
325–33941%はいいいえ
340–35422%はいいいえ
$21.1万 取引高 20/09
Michigan Senate Election WinnerMichigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D)Abdul El-Sayed (D)61%はいいいえ
Mike Rogers (R)Mike Rogers (R)39%はいいいえ
$58.7万 取引高 03/11
2026年に下院を制する政党は？2026年に下院を制する政党は？
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party89%はいいいえ
Republican PartyRepublican Party12%はいいいえ
$1.4万 取引高 03/11
Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?
David Morales52%はいいいえ
Brett Smiley46%はいいいえ
$2.3万 取引高 09/09
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Scott JenningsScott Jennings25%はいいいえ
Anna KellyAnna Kelly17%はいいいえ
$15万 取引高 31/12
Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner
Ricardo Ferraço78%はいいいえ
Lorenzo Pazolini16%はいいいえ
$3万 取引高 05/10
Rhode Island Governor Democratic Primary WinnerRhode Island Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Helena FoulkesHelena Foulkes94%はいいいえ
Dan McKeeDan McKee5%はいいいえ
$3.9万 取引高 08/09
Russia Parliamentary Election WinnerRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)99%はいいいえ
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)1%はいいいえ
$326.8万 取引高 20/09
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3196%はいいいえ
September 3093%はいいいえ
$35.7万 取引高 01/01
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon96%はいいいえ
Nathalie ArthaudNathalie Arthaud89%はいいいえ
$31.2万 取引高 17/04
Nigerian Presidential Election WinnerNigerian Presidential Election Winner
Bola TinubuBola Tinubu70%はいいいえ
Peter ObiPeter Obi24%はいいいえ
$11.4万 取引高 16/01
Amazonas Senate Election: 1st PlaceAmazonas Senate Election: 1st Place
Eduardo BragaEduardo Braga72%はいいいえ
Capitão Alberto NetoCapitão Alberto Neto17%はいいいえ
$1.7万 取引高 04/10
Piauí Senate Election: 2nd PlacePiauí Senate Election: 2nd Place
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira43%はいいいえ
Marcelo CastroMarcelo Castro21%はいいいえ
$2.1万 取引高 04/10
Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?
125-12830%はいいいえ
121-12423%はいいいえ
$1.1万 取引高 12/10
Colima Governor Election WinnerColima Governor Election Winner
Rosa María Bayardo CabreraRosa María Bayardo Cabrera57%はいいいえ
Griselda Martínez MartínezGriselda Martínez Martínez10%はいいいえ
$2.8万 取引高 06/06
Tocantins Senate Election: 2nd PlaceTocantins Senate Election: 2nd Place
Alexandre GuimarãesAlexandre Guimarães41%はいいいえ
GaguimGaguim40%はいいいえ
$1.7万 取引高 04/10
Tocantins Governor Election WinnerTocantins Governor Election Winner
Professora DorinhaProfessora Dorinha57%はいいいえ
Vicentinho JúniorVicentinho Júnior40%はいいいえ
$1.5万 取引高 04/10
Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st PlaceRio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place
Carlos JordyCarlos Jordy48%はいいいえ
Benedita da SilvaBenedita da Silva48%はいいいえ
$2.5万 取引高 04/10
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro86%はいいいえ
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva5%はいいいえ
$523.4万 取引高 04/10
IN-07 House Election WinnerIN-07 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%はいいいえ
Republican Party5%はいいいえ
$3万 取引高 03/11
San Luis Potosí Governor Election WinnerSan Luis Potosí Governor Election Winner
Ruth González SilvaRuth González Silva53%はいいいえ
Gerardo Sánchez ZumayaGerardo Sánchez Zumaya10%はいいいえ
$2.1万 取引高 06/06
WA-09 House Election WinnerWA-09 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%はいいいえ
Republican Party3%はいいいえ
$4.9万 取引高 03/11
Rondônia Senate Election: 1st PlaceRondônia Senate Election: 1st Place
Dr. Fernando MáximoDr. Fernando Máximo38%はいいいえ
Sílvia CristinaSílvia Cristina38%はいいいえ
$2.3万 取引高 04/10
Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Vote Share?Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Vote Share?
5-7%63%はいいいえ
7-9%25%はいいいえ
$1.5万 取引高 13/09
MA-08 Democratic Primary WinnerMA-08 Democratic Primary Winner
Stephen LynchStephen Lynch50%はいいいえ
Patrick RoathPatrick Roath48%はいいいえ
$3.1万 取引高 01/09
Netanyahuは...までに退任する？Netanyahuは...までに退任する？
December 3149%はいいいえ
May 311%はいいいえ
$7,111 取引高 01/01
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election WinnerChicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner
Daniel GobeilDaniel Gobeil75%はいいいえ
Caroline DubéCaroline Dubé24%はいいいえ
$4.2万 取引高 31/08
Piauí Senate Election: 1st PlacePiauí Senate Election: 1st Place
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira48%はいいいえ
Marcelo CastroMarcelo Castro39%はいいいえ
$3.2万 取引高 04/10
Berlin State Election WinnerBerlin State Election Winner
LinkeLinke58%はいいいえ
CDUCDU26%はいいいえ
$332.9万 取引高 20/09
Mato Grosso Governor Election WinnerMato Grosso Governor Election Winner
Wellington FagundesWellington Fagundes54%はいいいえ
Otaviano PivettaOtaviano Pivetta44%はいいいえ
$1.6万 取引高 04/10
Cusco Mayoral Election WinnerCusco Mayoral Election Winner
Albert Aníbal Arenas YabarAlbert Aníbal Arenas Yabar30%はいいいえ
Sergio Sullca CondoriSergio Sullca Condori28%はいいいえ
$1.8万 取引高 04/10
Wisconsin Governor Election WinnerWisconsin Governor Election Winner
David Crowley (D)David Crowley (D)81%はいいいえ
Tom Tiffany (R)Tom Tiffany (R)20%はいいいえ
$48.6万 取引高 03/11
Florida Senate Election WinnerFlorida Senate Election Winner
Ashley Moody (R)Ashley Moody (R)92%はいいいえ
Angie Nixon (D)Angie Nixon (D)8%はいいいえ
$9.5万 取引高
Ohio Senate Election WinnerOhio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D)Sherrod Brown (D)54%はいいいえ
Jon Husted (R)Jon Husted (R)47%はいいいえ
$18.3万 取引高 03/11
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
59%
確率
はい いいえ
$16.8万 取引高 20/09
Chiclayo Mayoral Election WinnerChiclayo Mayoral Election Winner
Edwin Gonzalo Vásquez SánchezEdwin Gonzalo Vásquez Sánchez30%はいいいえ
Agustín Villarreal GranadosAgustín Villarreal Granados26%はいいいえ
$7,332 取引高 04/10
São Paulo Senate Election: 1st PlaceSão Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place
Guilherme DerriteGuilherme Derrite46%はいいいえ
Simone TebetSimone Tebet31%はいいいえ
$2.4万 取引高 04/10
Oklahoma Democratic Senate Primary WinnerOklahoma Democratic Senate Primary Winner
N’Kiyla “Jasmine” ThomasN’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas92%はいいいえ
Jim PriestJim Priest8%はいいいえ
$11.9万 取引高 本日終了
São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd PlaceSão Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place
Guilherme DerriteGuilherme Derrite35%はいいいえ
Marina SilvaMarina Silva32%はいいいえ
$2.3万 取引高 04/10
NC-04 House Election WinnerNC-04 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%はいいいえ
Republican Party5%はいいいえ
$3.8万 取引高 03/11
NC-12 House Election WinnerNC-12 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%はいいいえ
Republican Party3%はいいいえ
$6.4万 取引高 03/11
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?
3-5%49%はいいいえ
5-7%42%はいいいえ
$8,222 取引高 06/09
Pernambuco Senate Election: 2nd PlacePernambuco Senate Election: 2nd Place
Humberto CostaHumberto Costa45%はいいいえ
Mendonça FilhoMendonça Filho34%はいいいえ
$2万 取引高 04/10
AL-07 House Election WinnerAL-07 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%はいいいえ
Republican Party5%はいいいえ
$6.7万 取引高 03/11
Latvian Parliamentary Election WinnerLatvian Parliamentary Election Winner
AS49%はいいいえ
SV26%はいいいえ
$19.8万 取引高 03/10
Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary WinnerOklahoma Governor Republican Primary Winner
Mike MazzeiMike Mazzei79%はいいいえ
Gentner DrummondGentner Drummond21%はいいいえ
$53万 取引高 本日終了
VT-AL House Election WinnerVT-AL House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%はいいいえ
Republican Party5%はいいいえ
$4万 取引高 03/11
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
38%
確率
はい いいえ
$37.4万 取引高 06/09
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen84%はいいいえ
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon50%はいいいえ
$9.3万 取引高 30/04
Florida Governor Election WinnerFlorida Governor Election Winner
Byron Donalds (R)Byron Donalds (R)80%はいいいえ
David Jolly (D)David Jolly (D)22%はいいいえ
$5.6万 取引高 03/11
SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?
62-6430%はいいいえ
59-6129%はいいいえ
$7,225 取引高 12/10
Arequipa Mayoral Election WinnerArequipa Mayoral Election Winner
Andrés Eliseo Risueño PortugalAndrés Eliseo Risueño Portugal31%はいいいえ
Ricardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar LlosaRicardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar Llosa18%はいいいえ
$7,996 取引高 04/10
TX-01 House Election WinnerTX-01 House Election Winner
Republican Party95%はいいいえ
Democratic Party5%はいいいえ
$4.2万 取引高 03/11
Lagos, Nigeria Governor Election WinnerLagos, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
Obafemi HamzatObafemi Hamzat87%はいいいえ
Rhodes-Vivour Gbadebo PatrickRhodes-Vivour Gbadebo Patrick6%はいいいえ
$5,387 取引高 06/02
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4727%はいいいえ
4914%はいいいえ
$286.4万 取引高 03/11
Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Zukan HelezZukan Helez37%はいいいえ
Sabina ĆudićSabina Ćudić27%はいいいえ
$6.7万 取引高
Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st PlaceMinas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place
Marília CamposMarília Campos48%はいいいえ
Carlos VianaCarlos Viana13%はいいいえ
$1.7万 取引高 04/10
Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd PlaceRio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd Place
Carlos JordyCarlos Jordy28%はいいいえ
Pedro PauloPedro Paulo21%はいいいえ
$2.7万 取引高 04/10
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Charleston County WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Charleston County Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone78%はいいいえ
Ralph NormanRalph Norman22%はいいいえ
$1.4万 取引高 残り2日
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?
49%
確率
はい いいえ
$3.4万 取引高 残り6日
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
6%
確率
はい いいえ
$26万 取引高 31/12
France United Left Primary WinnerFrance United Left Primary Winner
Canceled94%はいいいえ
François RuffinFrançois Ruffin1%はいいいえ
$21.1万 取引高 11/10
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Éric Zemmour68%はいいいえ
Olivier Faure59%はいいいえ
$7.1万 取引高 23/04
Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st PlaceSanta Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Carol de ToniCarol de Toni45%はいいいえ
Carlos BolsonaroCarlos Bolsonaro39%はいいいえ
$1万 取引高 04/10
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選挙市場 FAQ

なぜ選挙市場は正確なのか？

人々が自分の見解にお金をかけるため、「ゲームに皮膚を持つ」必要があります。これにより、低品質のノイズがフィルタリングされます。取引量が大きいほど、価格はより信頼性があります。

現在ライブの選挙市場はどれか？

米国2028、イスラエル（日時別）、英国およびEUの地方選挙、さらに政党予備選があります。最新情報は私たちのページをフォローしてください。

選挙市場でリスクをどのように価格付けするか？

流動性（オーダーブックの深さ）、過去のボラティリティ、決定日を確認してください。流動性が薄い市場は非効率的な価格設定に陥りやすいです。

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