The AI Race, Priced in Real Time
Which lab ships the best model this year? Polymarket prices the AI race continuously - OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI, Meta and DeepSeek - across release-date markets, benchmark-leadership markets and company milestones. Prices here are real-money probabilities, not pundit takes: when a lab's probability moves 10 points overnight, someone paid for that information. Use them next to our probability guide to read what the market actually believes.
18 active markets
Anthropic98%YesNo
OpenAI2%YesNo
↑$1.25T98%YesNo
↑$1.5T94%YesNo
October 202674%YesNo
September 202614%YesNo
December 31, 202691%YesNo
October 31, 202683%YesNo
Anthropic91%YesNoOpenAI5%YesNo
SpaceX65%YesNo
Anthropic36%YesNo
November 3081%YesNo
October 3158%YesNo
October 3184%YesNo
September 3081%YesNo
$1.75–$2.0T18%YesNo
$2.0–$2.25T17%YesNo
December 31, 202670%YesNo
November 30, 202660%YesNo
December 3196%YesNo
October 3182%YesNo
No release by November 156%YesNo
September 21–September 277%YesNo
Anthropic70%YesNo
xAI12%YesNoclaude-opus-5-high54%YesNo
claude-opus-5-max45%YesNo
October 3189%YesNo
September 3078%YesNo
1.8T+77%YesNo
1.5–1.8T14%YesNo
8-1084%YesNo
5-78%YesNo
↑$1.25T73%YesNo
↓$1T37%YesNo
AI race markets - FAQ
What does a 60% price on an AI market mean?
The market collectively estimates a 60% probability that the outcome happens. Shares pay $1 if it resolves yes, $0 if not - so 60¢ is the crowd's live probability, backed by real money.
Which AI markets have the most volume?
Best-model-by-year-end markets (judged by benchmark leaderboards), major release-date markets, and company milestones like revenue or valuation thresholds typically lead AI-category volume.
How do these markets resolve?
Each market specifies its resolution source up front - usually a named benchmark leaderboard, an official company announcement, or a credible-reporting standard. Read the rules tab before trading: the resolution criteria are the contract.
