Mercados de Previsão de Trump

Os mercados de previsão de Trump estão entre os mais ativos do Polymarket: mandato, processos legais, política externa (Ucrânia, China, Oriente Médio), política interna e aprovação geral. Os volumes superam centenas de milhões de dólares.

Esses mercados reagem fortemente a cada declaração importante, via Truth Social, entrevistas ou anúncios da Casa Branca. A cobertura de notícias em tempo real cria oportunidades de negociação.

100 mercados ativos
Ordenar
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
18%
chance
Sim Não
$9,8 mi Volume 01/01
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%SimNão
August 25August 2599%SimNão
$2,6 mi Volume 30/09
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3173%SimNão
October 3152%SimNão
$19,4 mi Volume 01/01
Quando será a próxima rodada de negociações de paz entre EUA e Irã...?Quando será a próxima rodada de negociações de paz entre EUA e Irã...?
March 31, 202765%SimNão
December 31, 202652%SimNão
$106,9 mil Volume 01/04
Os EUA invadirão o Irã antes de 2027? Os EUA invadirão o Irã antes de 2027?
17%
chance
Sim Não
$90,3 mil Volume 31/12
O regime iraniano cairá antes de 2027? O regime iraniano cairá antes de 2027?
7%
chance
Sim Não
$87,1 mil Volume 31/12
Russia nuclear test by...?Russia nuclear test by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20266%SimNão
September 30, 2026September 30, 20261%SimNão
$6,2 mi Volume 01/01
Decisão do Fed em outubro?Decisão do Fed em outubro?
No change72%SimNão
25 bps increase25%SimNão
$2,1 mi Volume 28/10
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
September 3017%SimNão
September 158%SimNão
$673,3 mil Volume 01/10
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 314%
August 314%
$274,2 mil Volume 01/09
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Steve WitkoffSteve Witkoff45%SimNão
Mohammad Bagher GhalibafMohammad Bagher Ghalibaf41%SimNão
$22,2 mil Volume 31/12
O Irã concordará em encerrar o enriquecimento de urânio até 31 de dezembro? O Irã concordará em encerrar o enriquecimento de urânio até 31 de dezembro?
14%
chance
Sim Não
$22,1 mil Volume 31/12
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
September 3040%SimNão
August 3112%SimNão
$914,9 mil Volume 01/10
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3124%SimNão
October 3115%SimNão
$5,9 mi Volume 01/01
Onde será a próxima rodada de negociações de paz entre EUA e Irã...?Onde será a próxima rodada de negociações de paz entre EUA e Irã...?
Sem reunião até 30 de setembro74%SimNão
Suíça10%SimNão
$17,5 mil Volume 30/09
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
ChinaChina52%SimNão
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3148%SimNão
$16,8 mil Volume 31/12
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
August 2494%SimNão
August 3192%SimNão
$15,4 mil Volume 01/09
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
chance
Sim Não
$29 mil Volume 31/12
Trump out as President by August 31? Trump out as President by August 31?
1%
chance
Sim Não
$29 mil Volume 31/08
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Scott JenningsScott Jennings25%SimNão
Anna KellyAnna Kelly17%SimNão
$149,6 mil Volume 31/12
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
AlibabaAlibaba22%SimNão
CATLCATL19%SimNão
$186,9 mil Volume 30/06
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?
200+88%SimNão
180-19912%SimNão
$11,5 mil Volume Encerra hoje
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman77%SimNão
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin48%SimNão
$10,7 mil Volume 31/12
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
4%
chance
Sim Não
$7,5 mil Volume 31/12
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
86%
chance
Sim Não
$7,2 mil Volume 31/12
Xi Jinping visitará os EUA antes de 2027?Xi Jinping visitará os EUA antes de 2027?
December 3197%SimNão
October 3196%SimNão
$739,5 mil Volume 31/12
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro86%SimNão
Delcy Rodríguez10%SimNão
$95,8 mi Volume 31/12
Decisão do Fed em dezembro?Decisão do Fed em dezembro?
No change61%SimNão
25 bps increase29%SimNão
$2,1 mi Volume 09/12
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4727%SimNão
4914%SimNão
$2,9 mi Volume 03/11
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
August 31, 20261%
December 31, 202610%
$4 mil Volume 01/01
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
6%
chance
Sim Não
$260,1 mil Volume 31/12
What will Trump say this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Trump say this week? (August 24 - August 30)
God90%SimNão
Boom / Booming81%SimNão
$5,4 mil Volume 7 dias restantes
US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday? US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?
62%
chance
Sim Não
$5,8 mil Volume Encerra hoje
Decisão do Fed em janeiro?Decisão do Fed em janeiro?
No change61%SimNão
25 bps increase22%SimNão
$2,1 mi Volume 27/01
Who will be arrested before 2027?Who will be arrested before 2027?
Mahmoud Khalil30%SimNão
John Brennan18%SimNão
$389 mil Volume
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?
1220%SimNão
1019%SimNão
$10,5 mil Volume 03/11
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 316%SimNão
September 302%SimNão
$29,1 mi Volume 01/01
What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?
Iran 5+ times63%SimNão
Go ahead 5+ times58%SimNão
$3,3 mil Volume 31/08
What will Trump say in August?What will Trump say in August?
Movie Star52%SimNão
Green New Scam52%SimNão
$2,9 mil Volume 31/08
Who will Trump meet with in August?Who will Trump meet with in August?
Elon MuskElon Musk11%SimNão
Giorgia MeloniGiorgia Meloni7%SimNão
$10,7 mil Volume 31/08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
June 30, 202755%SimNão
March 31, 202744%SimNão
$6 mi Volume 01/07
What will Scott Bessent say during press conference?What will Scott Bessent say during press conference?
Oil / Gas / Gasoline86%SimNão
Regime80%SimNão
$2,5 mil Volume Encerra hoje
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?
554%SimNão
618%SimNão
$11,9 mil Volume 03/11
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?
30+7%SimNão
40+2%SimNão
$2,4 mil Volume 31/08
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?
September 3086%SimNão
September 1578%SimNão
$2,6 mil Volume 01/10
What will JD Vance say during remarks in Maine?What will JD Vance say during remarks in Maine?
Trump 10+ times99%SimNão
Illegal Alien99%SimNão
$2,2 mil Volume Encerra hoje
What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?
Good Morning80%SimNão
Productivity77%SimNão
$45,6 mil Volume 5 dias restantes
Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?
December 31, 202610%
June 30, 202724%
$43,4 mil Volume 01/07
Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by Aug 28? Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by Aug 28?
23%
chance
Sim Não
$3,5 mil Volume 5 dias restantes
Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?
July 171%
December 3126%
$188,8 mil Volume 01/01
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 21 - August 28, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 21 - August 28, 2026?
200+61%SimNão
180-19920%SimNão
$11,5 mil Volume 4 dias restantes
How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?
4863%SimNão
4717%SimNão
$7,2 mil Volume 03/11
When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?
September 3063%SimNão
September 1132%SimNão
$57,5 mil Volume 01/10
Who will Trump publicly praise in August?Who will Trump publicly praise in August?
Xi JinpingXi Jinping74%SimNão
Doug FordDoug Ford42%SimNão
$1,5 mil Volume 31/08
Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?
December 31, 20265%
June 30, 202711%
$26,1 mil Volume 01/07
What will Trump say during Rose Garden event?What will Trump say during Rose Garden event?
Child / Children 5+ times92%SimNão
College87%SimNão
$1,4 mil Volume Encerra hoje
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 3117%SimNão
October 318%SimNão
$1,1 mi Volume 31/12
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 25 - September 1, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 25 - September 1, 2026?
200+53%SimNão
180-19926%SimNão
$11,5 mil Volume 01/09
Who will Trump speak to in August?Who will Trump speak to in August?
Friedrich MerzFriedrich Merz55%SimNão
Elon MuskElon Musk44%SimNão
$1,4 mil Volume 31/08
Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?
Candace OwensCandace Owens27%SimNão
Kaitlan CollinsKaitlan Collins27%SimNão
$1,3 mil Volume 31/08
Weed rescheduled by...?Weed rescheduled by...?
December 3118%SimNão
September 3016%SimNão
$1,3 mil Volume 01/01
What will Trump post this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Trump post this week? (August 24 - August 30)
Communist / Communism90%SimNão
Crime88%SimNão
$1,6 mil Volume 7 dias restantes
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
3.75%45%SimNão
4.0%31%SimNão
$6,8 mi Volume 09/12
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?
2%
chance
Sim Não
$1,7 mil Volume 31/08
Kash Patel fora do cargo até...?Kash Patel fora do cargo até...?
December 3125%SimNão
September 308%SimNão
$1,7 mi Volume 01/01
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
IrelandIreland99%SimNão
AlemanhaAlemanha39%SimNão
$1,2 mil Volume 31/12
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Ryan SalameRyan Salame23%SimNão
Daniel PennyDaniel Penny21%SimNão
$428,5 mil Volume 31/12
Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?
285M56%SimNão
270M1%SimNão
$59,3 mil Volume 09/09
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
December 313%SimNão
August 311%SimNão
$6,3 mi Volume 01/01
Netanyahu arrested by…?Netanyahu arrested by…?
December 316%SimNão
September 302%SimNão
$22,3 mil Volume 01/01
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
6%
chance
Sim Não
$64,7 mil Volume 31/12
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?
December 31, 202621%
June 30, 20262%
$55,5 mil Volume 01/01
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027No meeting before 202794%SimNão
SuíçaSuíça3%SimNão
$904 Volume 31/12
Trump meets with Putin by...?Trump meets with Putin by...?
December 3148%SimNão
September 302%SimNão
$152,1 mil Volume 01/01
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
16%
chance
Sim Não
$839 Volume 31/12
Trump approval rating on August 28?Trump approval rating on August 28?
38.0–38.435%SimNão
38.5–38.930%SimNão
$779 Volume 5 dias restantes
How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?
173%SimNão
221%SimNão
$3,9 mil Volume 03/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?
433%SimNão
532%SimNão
$6,1 mil Volume 03/11
Will Trump launch a coin by ___?Will Trump launch a coin by ___?
December 31, 202619%
March 31, 20266%
$89 mil Volume 01/01
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Cuban regime falls in 2026?
13%
chance
Sim Não
$1,6 mi Volume 31/12
Which companies will the US take a stake in?Which companies will the US take a stake in?
GlobalFoundries89%SimNão
Rigetti79%SimNão
$173,1 mil Volume 31/12
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
October 3150%SimNão
December 3150%SimNão
$2,9 mi Volume 01/01
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
December 3128%SimNão
September 307%SimNão
$6,4 mi Volume 01/01
US strike on Mexico by...?US strike on Mexico by...?
December 3112%SimNão
January 311%SimNão
$3,4 mi Volume 01/01
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
2%
chance
Sim Não
$547 Volume 31/12
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
India18%SimNão
Israel16%SimNão
$504 Volume 31/12
Maduro Prison Time?Maduro Prison Time?
No prison time39%SimNão
60+33%SimNão
$676,4 mil Volume 31/12
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?
December 31, 202629%SimNão
August 31, 20263%SimNão
$87,4 mil Volume 01/01
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
7%
chance
Sim Não
$10,6 mi Volume 31/12
O Irã concorda em entregar seu estoque de urânio enriquecido até...?O Irã concorda em entregar seu estoque de urânio enriquecido até...?
31 de dezembro8%SimNão
31 de outubro3%SimNão
$17,8 mi Volume 01/01
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
52%
chance
Sim Não
$306,9 mil Volume 31/12
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31? Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?
20%
chance
Sim Não
$7,4 mil Volume 7 dias restantes
How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
35%35%25%SimNão
30%30%6%SimNão
$386 Volume 31/12
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?
342%SimNão
226%SimNão
$4,7 mil Volume 03/11
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 313%SimNão
June 263%SimNão
$1,6 mi Volume 01/09
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
67%
chance
Sim Não
$419 Volume 20/01
Fed abolished before 2027? Fed abolished before 2027?
5%
chance
Sim Não
$352 Volume 31/12
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
October 3172%SimNão
September 3061%SimNão
$347 Volume 01/11
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?
1%
chance
Sim Não
$107,6 mil Volume 31/12
Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election? Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election?
No Endorsement65%SimNão
Likud31%SimNão
$29,3 mil Volume 28/10
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FAQ dos Mercados de Trump

Quais mercados de Trump estão ao vivo agora?

Aprovação anual, resultados de políticas específicas, processos legais, resultados de negociações internacionais e decisões de nomeações de alto escalão.

O que move os preços?

Declarações de Trump (especialmente Truth Social), anúncios oficiais da Casa Branca, decisões judiciais e ações do Congresso. As reações são muito rápidas.

Como gerencio o risco nos mercados de Trump?

Alta volatilidade: construa posições gradualmente, evite sobrecarga em um único mercado e verifique a profundidade do livro de ofertas antes de entrar.

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