Trump Prediction Markets

Trump prediction markets are among Polymarket's most active - tenure, legal proceedings, foreign policy (Ukraine, China, Middle East), domestic policy, and general approval. Volumes exceed hundreds of millions of dollars.

These markets react strongly to every major statement - via Truth Social, interviews, or White House announcements. Real-time news coverage creates trading opportunities.

100 active markets
Sort
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
19%
chance
Yes No
$9.9M Volume 01/01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3172%YesNo
October 3151%YesNo
$19.5M Volume 01/01
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%YesNo
August 25August 2599%YesNo
$2.7M Volume 30/09
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
8%
chance
Yes No
$401.4K Volume 31/12
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
17%
chance
Yes No
$234.4K Volume 31/12
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
March 31, 202769%YesNo
December 31, 202652%YesNo
$119K Volume 01/04
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3125%YesNo
October 3114%YesNo
$6M Volume 01/01
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
August 2499%YesNo
August 3192%YesNo
$46.5K Volume 01/09
Russia nuclear test by...?Russia nuclear test by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20266%YesNo
September 30, 2026September 30, 20261%YesNo
$6.2M Volume 01/01
Fed Decision in October?Fed Decision in October?
No change72%YesNo
25 bps increase25%YesNo
$2.1M Volume 28/10
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
September 3015%YesNo
September 158%YesNo
$674.7K Volume 01/10
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Mohammad Bagher GhalibafMohammad Bagher Ghalibaf41%YesNo
Steve WitkoffSteve Witkoff37%YesNo
$26.5K Volume 31/12
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 314%
August 314%
$275.9K Volume 01/09
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
ChinaChina55%YesNo
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3141%YesNo
$25.1K Volume 31/12
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
14%
chance
Yes No
$24.3K Volume 31/12
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
September 3039%YesNo
August 3110%YesNo
$917.3K Volume 01/10
US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday? US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?
98%
chance
Yes No
$23.6K Volume Ends today
Trump out as President by August 31? Trump out as President by August 31?
1%
chance
Yes No
$30.5K Volume 31/08
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3075%YesNo
Switzerland10%YesNo
$17.2K Volume 30/09
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Lara TrumpLara Trump38%YesNo
Scott JenningsScott Jennings36%YesNo
$151.8K Volume 31/12
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
chance
Yes No
$30.5K Volume 31/12
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
AlibabaAlibaba22%YesNo
YMTCYMTC18%YesNo
$186.9K Volume 30/06
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?
200+99%YesNo
180-19911%YesNo
$16.1K Volume Ends today
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
4%
chance
Yes No
$10.4K Volume 31/12
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman77%YesNo
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin48%YesNo
$14.5K Volume 31/12
What will Trump say during Rose Garden event?What will Trump say during Rose Garden event?
College99%YesNo
Transgender99%YesNo
$10K Volume Ends today
What will Scott Bessent say during press conference?What will Scott Bessent say during press conference?
Network99%YesNo
Evade / Evasion99%YesNo
$9.8K Volume Ends today
What will Trump say this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Trump say this week? (August 24 - August 30)
Karoline / Leavitt99%YesNo
Ballroom99%YesNo
$9.1K Volume 7 days left
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
86%
chance
Yes No
$7.2K Volume 31/12
Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?
December 3197%YesNo
October 3196%YesNo
$740K Volume 31/12
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro85%YesNo
Delcy Rodríguez10%YesNo
$95.8M Volume 31/12
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
3.75%43%YesNo
4.0%31%YesNo
$6.8M Volume 09/12
Fed Decision in December?Fed Decision in December?
No change61%YesNo
25 bps increase29%YesNo
$2.1M Volume 09/12
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4727%YesNo
4914%YesNo
$2.9M Volume 03/11
What will JD Vance say during remarks in Maine?What will JD Vance say during remarks in Maine?
Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime99%YesNo
Ass29%YesNo
$4.3K Volume Ends today
Who will Trump meet with in August?Who will Trump meet with in August?
Elon MuskElon Musk13%YesNo
Giorgia MeloniGiorgia Meloni3%YesNo
$14.5K Volume 31/08
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
6%
chance
Yes No
$260.1K Volume 31/12
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
2%
chance
Yes No
$4.3K Volume 31/12
What will Trump say in August?What will Trump say in August?
Movie Star52%YesNo
Green New Scam52%YesNo
$3.7K Volume 31/08
Who will be arrested before 2027?Who will be arrested before 2027?
Mahmoud Khalil29%YesNo
John Brennan18%YesNo
$389.1K Volume
Fed Decision in January?Fed Decision in January?
No change61%YesNo
25 bps increase22%YesNo
$2.1M Volume 27/01
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?
1220%YesNo
1019%YesNo
$10.5K Volume 03/11
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 316%YesNo
September 302%YesNo
$29.1M Volume 01/01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
June 30, 202756%YesNo
March 31, 202744%YesNo
$6M Volume 01/07
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?
30+5%YesNo
40+2%YesNo
$3.2K Volume 31/08
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 21 - August 28, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 21 - August 28, 2026?
200+82%YesNo
180-19916%YesNo
$16.1K Volume 4 days left
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?
September 3085%YesNo
September 1580%YesNo
$2.8K Volume 01/10
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?
554%YesNo
618%YesNo
$12K Volume 03/11
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 25 - September 1, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 25 - September 1, 2026?
200+38%YesNo
180-19926%YesNo
$16.1K Volume 01/09
What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?
Iran 5+ times63%YesNo
Illegal / Illegals61%YesNo
$2.3K Volume 31/08
What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?
Good Morning79%YesNo
Productivity77%YesNo
$46.2K Volume 5 days left
Who will Trump speak to in August?Who will Trump speak to in August?
Friedrich MerzFriedrich Merz53%YesNo
Elon MuskElon Musk44%YesNo
$2.3K Volume 31/08
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
December 3117%YesNo
June 301%YesNo
$2.1M Volume 01/01
Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?
July 171%
December 3125%
$189.1K Volume 01/01
What will Trump say during Tele-Rallies on August 24?What will Trump say during Tele-Rallies on August 24?
State 5+ times94%YesNo
Border 3+ times91%YesNo
$2.1K Volume Ends today
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
53%
chance
Yes No
$308.5K Volume 31/12
Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?
December 31, 202610%
June 30, 202727%
$43.4K Volume 01/07
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?
1%
chance
Yes No
$109.1K Volume 31/12
Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by Aug 28? Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by Aug 28?
19%
chance
Yes No
$3.6K Volume 5 days left
How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?
4863%YesNo
4717%YesNo
$7.2K Volume 03/11
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 3117%YesNo
October 318%YesNo
$1.1M Volume 31/12
Weed rescheduled by...?Weed rescheduled by...?
December 3119%YesNo
September 3018%YesNo
$1.6K Volume 01/01
Who will Trump publicly praise in August?Who will Trump publicly praise in August?
Xi JinpingXi Jinping71%YesNo
Delcy RodriguezDelcy Rodriguez58%YesNo
$1.5K Volume 31/08
Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?
December 31, 20265%
June 30, 202711%
$26.1K Volume 01/07
What will Trump post this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Trump post this week? (August 24 - August 30)
Communist / Communism91%YesNo
Crime87%YesNo
$1.7K Volume 7 days left
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?
2%
chance
Yes No
$1.6K Volume 31/08
Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?
285M53%YesNo
270M1%YesNo
$59.4K Volume 09/09
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Ryan SalameRyan Salame23%YesNo
Matt GaetzMatt Gaetz21%YesNo
$428.5K Volume 31/12
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
IrelandIreland98%YesNo
GermanyGermany40%YesNo
$1.2K Volume 31/12
Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?
Kaitlan CollinsKaitlan Collins29%YesNo
Candace OwensCandace Owens28%YesNo
$1.1K Volume 31/08
When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?
September 3063%YesNo
September 1132%YesNo
$57.5K Volume 01/10
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
December 313%YesNo
August 311%YesNo
$6.3M Volume 01/01
Netanyahu arrested by…?Netanyahu arrested by…?
December 316%YesNo
September 302%YesNo
$22.3K Volume 01/01
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
6%
chance
Yes No
$64.7K Volume 31/12
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?
December 31, 202620%
June 30, 20262%
$55.5K Volume 01/01
Trump meets with Putin by...?Trump meets with Putin by...?
December 3149%YesNo
September 302%YesNo
$152.2K Volume 01/01
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
16%
chance
Yes No
$798 Volume 31/12
Trump approval rating on August 28?Trump approval rating on August 28?
38.0–38.435%YesNo
37.5–37.929%YesNo
$794 Volume 5 days left
How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?
173%YesNo
221%YesNo
$3.9K Volume 03/11
Will Trump launch a coin by ___?Will Trump launch a coin by ___?
December 31, 202620%
March 31, 20266%
$89K Volume 01/01
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Cuban regime falls in 2026?
14%
chance
Yes No
$1.6M Volume 31/12
Which companies will the US take a stake in?Which companies will the US take a stake in?
GlobalFoundries89%YesNo
Rigetti76%YesNo
$173.1K Volume 31/12
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
October 3150%YesNo
December 3150%YesNo
$2.9M Volume 01/01
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
December 3128%YesNo
September 307%YesNo
$6.4M Volume 01/01
US strike on Mexico by...?US strike on Mexico by...?
December 3112%YesNo
January 311%YesNo
$3.4M Volume 01/01
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027No meeting before 202794%YesNo
SwitzerlandSwitzerland3%YesNo
$560 Volume 31/12
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
2%
chance
Yes No
$547 Volume 31/12
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
India20%YesNo
Canada19%YesNo
$504 Volume 31/12
How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?
433%YesNo
533%YesNo
$6.1K Volume 03/11
Maduro Prison Time?Maduro Prison Time?
No prison time39%YesNo
60+33%YesNo
$676.4K Volume 31/12
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
August 31, 20261%
December 31, 202611%
$494 Volume 01/01
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 318%YesNo
October 313%YesNo
$17.8M Volume 01/01
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
7%
chance
Yes No
$10.6M Volume 31/12
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?
December 31, 202629%YesNo
August 31, 20263%YesNo
$87.4K Volume 01/01
How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
35%35%25%YesNo
30%30%6%YesNo
$430 Volume 31/12
FDA moves BPC-157 to Category 1 by…?FDA moves BPC-157 to Category 1 by…?
August 31, 202610%
December 31, 202647%
$3.4K Volume 01/01
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 313%YesNo
June 263%YesNo
$1.6M Volume 01/09
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?
342%YesNo
226%YesNo
$4.7K Volume 03/11
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31? Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?
15%
chance
Yes No
$7.4K Volume 7 days left
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
67%
chance
Yes No
$4.3K Volume 20/01
Load more on Polymarket →

Want to trade Trump markets?

Open a Polymarket account and start trading today

Open a Polymarket Account

Trump Markets FAQ

Which Trump markets are live now?

Annual approval, specific policy outcomes, legal proceedings, international negotiation outcomes, and senior-appointment decisions.

What moves prices?

Trump statements (especially Truth Social), official White House announcements, court rulings, and Congressional action. Reactions are very fast.

How do I manage risk in Trump markets?

High volatility - build positions gradually, avoid over-concentration in a single market, and check order-book depth before entering.

Start Polymarket Training For Free
Trade prediction markets with virtual money. Real prices, zero risk. Compete on the leaderboard.
$1K
Virtual Cash
500+
Markets
$0
Real Risk
Learn more
Real prices Zero risk Leaderboard