Mercati di previsione su Trump

I mercati di previsione su Trump sono tra i più attivi di Polymarket: durata del mandato, procedimenti giudiziari, politica estera (Ucraina, Cina, Medio Oriente), politica interna e gradimento generale. I volumi superano le centinaia di milioni di dollari.

Questi mercati reagiscono con forza a ogni dichiarazione importante, tramite Truth Social, interviste o annunci della Casa Bianca. La copertura delle notizie in tempo reale crea opportunità di trading.

100 mercati attivi
Ordina
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
19%
probabilità
Sì No
$10 Mln Volume 01/01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3170%SìNo
October 3147%SìNo
$19,6 Mln Volume 01/01
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%SìNo
August 25August 2599%SìNo
$2,8 Mln Volume 30/09
Il regime iraniano cadrà prima del 2027? Il regime iraniano cadrà prima del 2027?
8%
probabilità
Sì No
$396.524 Volume 31/12
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
August 3192%SìNo
August 2891%SìNo
$338.569 Volume 01/09
Gli Stati Uniti invaderanno l'Iran prima del 2027? Gli Stati Uniti invaderanno l'Iran prima del 2027?
17%
probabilità
Sì No
$237.569 Volume 31/12
Prossimo round di colloqui di pace USA-Iran entro...?Prossimo round di colloqui di pace USA-Iran entro...?
March 31, 202768%SìNo
December 31, 202651%SìNo
$135.467 Volume 01/04
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3126%SìNo
October 3114%SìNo
$6 Mln Volume 01/01
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
September 3013%SìNo
September 158%SìNo
$690.027 Volume 01/10
Russia nuclear test by...?Russia nuclear test by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20266%SìNo
September 30, 2026September 30, 20262%SìNo
$6,2 Mln Volume 01/01
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Steve WitkoffSteve Witkoff43%SìNo
Mohammad Bagher GhalibafMohammad Bagher Ghalibaf41%SìNo
$34.888 Volume 31/12
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
ChinaChina50%SìNo
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3146%SìNo
$26.767 Volume 31/12
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 314%
August 313%
$276.778 Volume 01/09
US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday? US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?
98%
probabilità
Sì No
$28.688 Volume Termina oggi
L'Iran accetterà di fermare l'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 31 dicembre? L'Iran accetterà di fermare l'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 31 dicembre?
14%
probabilità
Sì No
$24.231 Volume 31/12
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
September 3040%SìNo
August 3111%SìNo
$917.709 Volume 01/10
Decisione della Fed a ottobre?Decisione della Fed a ottobre?
No change72%SìNo
25 bps increase25%SìNo
$2,2 Mln Volume 28/10
Trump out as President by August 31? Trump out as President by August 31?
1%
probabilità
Sì No
$24.513 Volume 7 giorni rimanenti
Dove si svolgerà il prossimo round di colloqui di pace USA-Iran entro...?Dove si svolgerà il prossimo round di colloqui di pace USA-Iran entro...?
Nessuna riunione entro il 30 settembre78%SìNo
Svizzera10%SìNo
$15.969 Volume 30/09
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
AlibabaAlibaba23%SìNo
YMTCYMTC18%SìNo
$187.346 Volume 30/06
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman75%SìNo
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin49%SìNo
$15.190 Volume 31/12
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Scott JenningsScott Jennings35%SìNo
Matthew BoyleMatthew Boyle18%SìNo
$152.714 Volume 31/12
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?
200+99%SìNo
180-19911%SìNo
$17.926 Volume Termina oggi
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
August 31, 20261%
December 31, 202611%
$8.324 Volume 01/01
What will Trump say this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Trump say this week? (August 24 - August 30)
America First99%SìNo
Boom / Booming85%SìNo
$8.973 Volume 6 giorni rimanenti
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
86%
probabilità
Sì No
$7.285 Volume 31/12
What will Trump say during Tele-Rallies on August 24?What will Trump say during Tele-Rallies on August 24?
Indy / Race99%SìNo
Border 3+ times51%SìNo
$6.986 Volume Termina oggi
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
probabilità
Sì No
$24.513 Volume 31/12
Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?
December 3197%SìNo
October 3196%SìNo
$740.208 Volume 31/12
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro85%SìNo
Delcy Rodríguez10%SìNo
$95,8 Mln Volume 31/12
What will Trump say during remarks at NASA?What will Trump say during remarks at NASA?
Space Force82%SìNo
Mission81%SìNo
$5.258 Volume 4 giorni rimanenti
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 21 - August 28, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 21 - August 28, 2026?
200+86%SìNo
180-19914%SìNo
$17.926 Volume 4 giorni rimanenti
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
3.75%44%SìNo
4.0%31%SìNo
$6,8 Mln Volume 09/12
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
2%
probabilità
Sì No
$5.345 Volume 31/12
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
4%
probabilità
Sì No
$4.826 Volume 31/12
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?
30+3%SìNo
40+3%SìNo
$4.475 Volume 7 giorni rimanenti
Who will Trump meet with in August?Who will Trump meet with in August?
Elon MuskElon Musk7%SìNo
Volodymyr ZelenskyyVolodymyr Zelenskyy3%SìNo
$15.190 Volume 7 giorni rimanenti
Who will Trump speak to in August?Who will Trump speak to in August?
Friedrich MerzFriedrich Merz51%SìNo
Elon MuskElon Musk44%SìNo
$4.177 Volume 7 giorni rimanenti
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
6%
probabilità
Sì No
$260.327 Volume 31/12
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 313%SìNo
June 263%SìNo
$1,6 Mln Volume 01/09
Will Trump attend UFC 331? Will Trump attend UFC 331?
8%
probabilità
Sì No
$3.440 Volume 19/09
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?
1220%SìNo
1019%SìNo
$10.489 Volume 03/11
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
June 30, 202756%SìNo
March 31, 202744%SìNo
$6 Mln Volume 01/07
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 25 - September 1, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 25 - September 1, 2026?
200+47%SìNo
180-19926%SìNo
$17.926 Volume 01/09
Trump meets with Putin by...?Trump meets with Putin by...?
December 3149%SìNo
September 302%SìNo
$154.157 Volume 01/01
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 3116%SìNo
October 318%SìNo
$1,1 Mln Volume 31/12
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?
September 3086%SìNo
September 1580%SìNo
$2.919 Volume 01/10
What will Trump say in August?What will Trump say in August?
Death to America51%SìNo
Thomas Jefferson51%SìNo
$2.647 Volume 7 giorni rimanenti
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 316%SìNo
September 302%SìNo
$29,1 Mln Volume 01/01
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?
555%SìNo
618%SìNo
$12.011 Volume 03/11
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
53%
probabilità
Sì No
$308.798 Volume 31/12
Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?
July 171%
December 3122%
$189.189 Volume 01/01
What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?
Good Morning79%SìNo
Productivity77%SìNo
$46.334 Volume 4 giorni rimanenti
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
December 3117%SìNo
June 301%SìNo
$2,1 Mln Volume 01/01
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4727%SìNo
4914%SìNo
$2,9 Mln Volume 03/11
What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?
Iran 5+ times64%SìNo
Hormuz / Strait61%SìNo
$1.995 Volume 7 giorni rimanenti
Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?
December 31, 202610%
June 30, 202729%
$43.408 Volume 01/07
How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?
4863%SìNo
4717%SìNo
$7.180 Volume 03/11
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?
1%
probabilità
Sì No
$109.111 Volume 31/12
Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?
December 31, 20265%
June 30, 202711%
$26.139 Volume 01/07
What will Trump post this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Trump post this week? (August 24 - August 30)
Crime99%SìNo
Communist / Communism94%SìNo
$1.758 Volume 6 giorni rimanenti
Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election? Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election?
No Endorsement71%SìNo
Likud25%SìNo
$30.570 Volume 28/10
Decisione della Fed a gennaio?Decisione della Fed a gennaio?
No change61%SìNo
25 bps increase22%SìNo
$2,2 Mln Volume 27/01
Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by Aug 28? Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by Aug 28?
16%
probabilità
Sì No
$3.826 Volume 4 giorni rimanenti
Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?
Kaitlan CollinsKaitlan Collins28%SìNo
Candace OwensCandace Owens28%SìNo
$1.290 Volume 7 giorni rimanenti
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?
2%
probabilità
Sì No
$1.549 Volume 7 giorni rimanenti
Decisione della Fed a dicembre?Decisione della Fed a dicembre?
No change61%SìNo
25 bps increase29%SìNo
$2,2 Mln Volume 09/12
Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?
285M53%SìNo
270M1%SìNo
$59.436 Volume 09/09
When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?
September 3063%SìNo
September 1132%SìNo
$57.554 Volume 01/10
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?
December 31, 202629%SìNo
August 31, 20262%SìNo
$87.982 Volume 01/01
Trump approval rating on August 28?Trump approval rating on August 28?
38.0–38.435%SìNo
38.5–38.929%SìNo
$1.040 Volume 4 giorni rimanenti
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
December 313%SìNo
August 311%SìNo
$6,3 Mln Volume 01/01
Netanyahu arrested by…?Netanyahu arrested by…?
December 316%SìNo
September 302%SìNo
$22.338 Volume 01/01
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?
December 31, 202620%
June 30, 20262%
$55.513 Volume 01/01
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Ryan SalameRyan Salame23%SìNo
Donald BrodieDonald Brodie22%SìNo
$428.575 Volume 31/12
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
16%
probabilità
Sì No
$798 Volume 31/12
How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?
172%SìNo
221%SìNo
$3.934 Volume 03/11
How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
35%35%26%SìNo
30%30%6%SìNo
$665 Volume 31/12
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
October 3150%SìNo
December 3150%SìNo
$2,9 Mln Volume 01/01
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
December 3128%SìNo
September 307%SìNo
$6,4 Mln Volume 01/01
US strike on Mexico by...?US strike on Mexico by...?
December 3112%SìNo
January 311%SìNo
$3,4 Mln Volume 01/01
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
2%
probabilità
Sì No
$547 Volume 31/12
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
Canada19%SìNo
India18%SìNo
$545 Volume 31/12
Kash Patel fuori dalla carica entro...?Kash Patel fuori dalla carica entro...?
December 3124%SìNo
September 308%SìNo
$1,7 Mln Volume 01/01
Who will be arrested before 2027?Who will be arrested before 2027?
Mahmoud Khalil29%SìNo
John Brennan18%SìNo
$389.315 Volume
Weed rescheduled by...?Weed rescheduled by...?
December 3118%SìNo
September 3017%SìNo
$477 Volume 01/01
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027No meeting before 202794%SìNo
SvizzeraSvizzera3%SìNo
$471 Volume 31/12
L'Iran accetta di consegnare il deposito di uranio arricchito entro...?L'Iran accetta di consegnare il deposito di uranio arricchito entro...?
31 dicembre8%SìNo
31 ottobre3%SìNo
$17,8 Mln Volume 01/01
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
7%
probabilità
Sì No
$10,6 Mln Volume 31/12
Will Trump launch a coin by ___?Will Trump launch a coin by ___?
December 31, 202620%
March 31, 20266%
$89.043 Volume 01/01
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by August 31?Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by August 31?
Nick Stewart4%SìNo
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani2%SìNo
$34.888 Volume 7 giorni rimanenti
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM? (August 24 - August 29)Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM? (August 24 - August 29)
August 2877%SìNo
August 2550%SìNo
$397 Volume 5 giorni rimanenti
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31? Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?
18%
probabilità
Sì No
$7.429 Volume 6 giorni rimanenti
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
67%
probabilità
Sì No
$5.345 Volume 20/01
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?
342%SìNo
226%SìNo
$4.740 Volume 03/11
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
October 3171%SìNo
September 3062%SìNo
$286 Volume 01/11
Fed abolished before 2027? Fed abolished before 2027?
5%
probabilità
Sì No
$285 Volume 31/12
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
96%
probabilità
Sì No
$364.355 Volume 31/12
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
IrelandIreland98%SìNo
GermaniaGermania40%SìNo
$277 Volume 31/12
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Pennsylvania?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Pennsylvania?
931%SìNo
1025%SìNo
$9.585 Volume 03/11
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Gradimento annuale, esiti di politiche specifiche, procedimenti giudiziari, esiti di negoziati internazionali e decisioni sulle nomine di alto livello.

Cosa muove i prezzi?

Le dichiarazioni di Trump (soprattutto su Truth Social), gli annunci ufficiali della Casa Bianca, le sentenze dei tribunali e l'azione del Congresso. Le reazioni sono molto rapide.

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