Marchés de Prédiction Trump

Les marchés de prédiction Trump sont parmi les plus actifs de Polymarket : mandat, procédures judiciaires, politique étrangère (Ukraine, Chine, Moyen-Orient), politique intérieure et approbation générale. Les volumes dépassent des centaines de millions de dollars.

Ces marchés réagissent fortement à chaque déclaration majeure, via Truth Social, interviews ou annonces de la Maison Blanche. La couverture médiatique en temps réel crée des opportunités de trading.

100 marchés actifs
Trier
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
19%
de chance
Oui Non
$9,9 M Vol 01/01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3171%OuiNon
October 3147%OuiNon
$19,6 M Vol 01/01
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%OuiNon
August 25August 2599%OuiNon
$2,7 M Vol 30/09
Le régime iranien tombera-t-il avant 2027 ? Le régime iranien tombera-t-il avant 2027 ?
8%
de chance
Oui Non
$402,2 k Vol 31/12
Les États-Unis envahiront-ils l'Iran avant 2027 ? Les États-Unis envahiront-ils l'Iran avant 2027 ?
17%
de chance
Oui Non
$234,7 k Vol 31/12
Quand aura lieu le prochain round de négociations de paix entre les États-Unis et l'Iran...?Quand aura lieu le prochain round de négociations de paix entre les États-Unis et l'Iran...?
March 31, 202768%OuiNon
December 31, 202651%OuiNon
$132,1 k Vol 01/04
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
August 3192%OuiNon
August 2991%OuiNon
$121,2 k Vol 01/09
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3126%OuiNon
October 3115%OuiNon
$6 M Vol 01/01
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
September 3013%OuiNon
September 158%OuiNon
$690 k Vol 01/10
Russia nuclear test by...?Russia nuclear test by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20266%OuiNon
September 30, 2026September 30, 20262%OuiNon
$6,2 M Vol 01/01
Décision de la Fed en octobre ?Décision de la Fed en octobre ?
No change72%OuiNon
25 bps increase25%OuiNon
$2,1 M Vol 28/10
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Mohammad Bagher GhalibafMohammad Bagher Ghalibaf41%OuiNon
Steve WitkoffSteve Witkoff37%OuiNon
$32,6 k Vol 31/12
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 314%
August 313%
$276,8 k Vol 01/09
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
ChinaChina52%OuiNon
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3145%OuiNon
$25 k Vol 31/12
L'Iran acceptera-t-il d'arrêter l'enrichissement d'uranium d'ici le 31 décembre ? L'Iran acceptera-t-il d'arrêter l'enrichissement d'uranium d'ici le 31 décembre ?
14%
de chance
Oui Non
$24,3 k Vol 31/12
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
September 3040%OuiNon
August 3111%OuiNon
$917,7 k Vol 01/10
US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday? US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?
98%
de chance
Oui Non
$25,5 k Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Trump out as President by August 31? Trump out as President by August 31?
1%
de chance
Oui Non
$24,8 k Vol 31/08
Où aura lieu le prochain round de négociations de paix entre les États-Unis et l'Iran...?Où aura lieu le prochain round de négociations de paix entre les États-Unis et l'Iran...?
Pas de réunion avant le 30 septembre77%OuiNon
Suisse10%OuiNon
$14,4 k Vol 30/09
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
AlibabaAlibaba23%OuiNon
YMTCYMTC18%OuiNon
$187,3 k Vol 30/06
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman74%OuiNon
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin49%OuiNon
$16,1 k Vol 31/12
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?
200+99%OuiNon
180-19911%OuiNon
$16,1 k Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Scott JenningsScott Jennings36%OuiNon
Matthew BoyleMatthew Boyle18%OuiNon
$152 k Vol 31/12
What will Trump say this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Trump say this week? (August 24 - August 30)
America First99%OuiNon
Boom / Booming85%OuiNon
$9,2 k Vol 7 jours restants
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
86%
de chance
Oui Non
$7,3 k Vol 31/12
Xi Jinping visitera-t-il les États-Unis avant 2027 ?Xi Jinping visitera-t-il les États-Unis avant 2027 ?
December 3197%OuiNon
October 3196%OuiNon
$740,1 k Vol 31/12
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
de chance
Oui Non
$24,8 k Vol 31/12
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro85%OuiNon
Delcy Rodríguez10%OuiNon
$95,8 M Vol 31/12
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
August 31, 20261%
December 31, 202611%
$5,9 k Vol 01/01
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
2%
de chance
Oui Non
$5,3 k Vol 31/12
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
3.75%43%OuiNon
4.0%31%OuiNon
$6,8 M Vol 09/12
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
4%
de chance
Oui Non
$4,8 k Vol 31/12
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4727%OuiNon
4814%OuiNon
$2,9 M Vol 03/11
Décision de la Fed en décembre ?Décision de la Fed en décembre ?
No change61%OuiNon
25 bps increase29%OuiNon
$2,1 M Vol 09/12
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?
30+3%OuiNon
40+2%OuiNon
$4,5 k Vol 31/08
Who will Trump meet with in August?Who will Trump meet with in August?
Elon MuskElon Musk7%OuiNon
Volodymyr ZelenskyyVolodymyr Zelenskyy3%OuiNon
$16,1 k Vol 31/08
What will Trump say during Tele-Rallies on August 24?What will Trump say during Tele-Rallies on August 24?
Job 3+ times99%OuiNon
State 5+ times99%OuiNon
$4,1 k Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
6%
de chance
Oui Non
$260,1 k Vol 31/12
Who will be arrested before 2027?Who will be arrested before 2027?
Mahmoud Khalil29%OuiNon
John Brennan18%OuiNon
$389,2 k Vol
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?
1220%OuiNon
1019%OuiNon
$10,5 k Vol 03/11
What will Trump say in August?What will Trump say in August?
Thomas Jefferson53%OuiNon
Green New Scam53%OuiNon
$3,4 k Vol 31/08
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 316%OuiNon
September 302%OuiNon
$29,1 M Vol 01/01
Who will Trump speak to in August?Who will Trump speak to in August?
Friedrich MerzFriedrich Merz52%OuiNon
Elon MuskElon Musk44%OuiNon
$3 k Vol 31/08
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 21 - August 28, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 21 - August 28, 2026?
200+82%OuiNon
180-19916%OuiNon
$16,1 k Vol 4 jours restants
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 25 - September 1, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 25 - September 1, 2026?
200+48%OuiNon
180-19926%OuiNon
$16,1 k Vol 01/09
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
June 30, 202756%OuiNon
March 31, 202744%OuiNon
$6 M Vol 01/07
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?
September 3085%OuiNon
September 1580%OuiNon
$2,9 k Vol 01/10
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?
554%OuiNon
618%OuiNon
$12 k Vol 03/11
Décision de la Fed en janvier ?Décision de la Fed en janvier ?
No change61%OuiNon
25 bps increase22%OuiNon
$2,1 M Vol 27/01
What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?
Good Morning79%OuiNon
Productivity77%OuiNon
$46,3 k Vol 5 jours restants
Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?
July 171%
December 3122%
$189,2 k Vol 01/01
What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?
Iran 5+ times64%OuiNon
Illegal / Illegals63%OuiNon
$2,2 k Vol 31/08
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
December 3117%OuiNon
June 301%OuiNon
$2,1 M Vol 01/01
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
62%
de chance
Oui Non
$308,5 k Vol 31/12
Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?
December 31, 202610%
June 30, 202729%
$43,4 k Vol 01/07
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?
1%
de chance
Oui Non
$109,1 k Vol 31/12
How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?
4863%OuiNon
4717%OuiNon
$7,2 k Vol 03/11
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 3117%OuiNon
October 318%OuiNon
$1,1 M Vol 31/12
Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?
December 31, 20265%
June 30, 202711%
$26,1 k Vol 01/07
Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by Aug 28? Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by Aug 28?
19%
de chance
Oui Non
$3,6 k Vol 5 jours restants
What will Trump post this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Trump post this week? (August 24 - August 30)
Communist / Communism94%OuiNon
Crime92%OuiNon
$1,7 k Vol 7 jours restants
Trump meets with Putin by...?Trump meets with Putin by...?
December 3149%OuiNon
September 302%OuiNon
$152,6 k Vol 01/01
Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election? Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election?
No Endorsement72%OuiNon
Likud28%OuiNon
$30,4 k Vol 28/10
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?
2%
de chance
Oui Non
$1,5 k Vol 31/08
Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?
285M53%OuiNon
270M1%OuiNon
$59,4 k Vol 09/09
Weed rescheduled by...?Weed rescheduled by...?
September 3048%OuiNon
December 3119%OuiNon
$1,2 k Vol 01/01
Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?
Candace OwensCandace Owens28%OuiNon
Kaitlan CollinsKaitlan Collins27%OuiNon
$1,2 k Vol 31/08
Who will Trump publicly praise in August?Who will Trump publicly praise in August?
Xi JinpingXi Jinping69%OuiNon
Delcy RodriguezDelcy Rodriguez58%OuiNon
$1,1 k Vol 31/08
When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?
September 3063%OuiNon
September 1132%OuiNon
$57,5 k Vol 01/10
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?
December 31, 202629%OuiNon
August 31, 20262%OuiNon
$88 k Vol 01/01
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
December 313%OuiNon
August 311%OuiNon
$6,3 M Vol 01/01
Netanyahu arrested by…?Netanyahu arrested by…?
December 316%OuiNon
September 302%OuiNon
$22,3 k Vol 01/01
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?
December 31, 202620%
June 30, 20262%
$55,5 k Vol 01/01
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Ryan SalameRyan Salame23%OuiNon
Matt GaetzMatt Gaetz21%OuiNon
$428,5 k Vol 31/12
How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
35%35%25%OuiNon
30%30%6%OuiNon
$810 Vol 31/12
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
16%
de chance
Oui Non
$798 Vol 31/12
Trump approval rating on August 28?Trump approval rating on August 28?
38.0–38.435%OuiNon
38.5–38.930%OuiNon
$794 Vol 5 jours restants
How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?
172%OuiNon
221%OuiNon
$3,9 k Vol 03/11
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
IrelandIreland98%OuiNon
AllemagneAllemagne40%OuiNon
$719 Vol 31/12
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
October 3150%OuiNon
December 3150%OuiNon
$2,9 M Vol 01/01
Which companies will the US take a stake in?Which companies will the US take a stake in?
GlobalFoundries89%OuiNon
Rigetti82%OuiNon
$173,1 k Vol 31/12
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
Canada19%OuiNon
India18%OuiNon
$595 Vol 31/12
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
December 3128%OuiNon
September 307%OuiNon
$6,4 M Vol 01/01
US strike on Mexico by...?US strike on Mexico by...?
December 3112%OuiNon
January 311%OuiNon
$3,4 M Vol 01/01
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
2%
de chance
Oui Non
$547 Vol 31/12
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027No meeting before 202794%OuiNon
SuisseSuisse3%OuiNon
$540 Vol 31/12
Kash Patel hors de ses fonctions d'ici... ?Kash Patel hors de ses fonctions d'ici... ?
December 3124%OuiNon
September 308%OuiNon
$1,7 M Vol 01/01
L'Iran acceptera-t-il de remettre son stock d'uranium enrichi d'ici...?L'Iran acceptera-t-il de remettre son stock d'uranium enrichi d'ici...?
31 décembre8%OuiNon
31 octobre3%OuiNon
$17,8 M Vol 01/01
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
7%
de chance
Oui Non
$10,6 M Vol 31/12
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Cuban regime falls in 2026?
13%
de chance
Oui Non
$1,6 M Vol 31/12
Will Trump launch a coin by ___?Will Trump launch a coin by ___?
December 31, 202619%
March 31, 20266%
$89 k Vol 01/01
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 313%OuiNon
June 263%OuiNon
$1,6 M Vol 01/09
How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?
433%OuiNon
533%OuiNon
$6,1 k Vol 03/11
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31? Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?
18%
de chance
Oui Non
$7,4 k Vol 7 jours restants
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
67%
de chance
Oui Non
$5,3 k Vol 20/01
Fed abolished before 2027? Fed abolished before 2027?
5%
de chance
Oui Non
$352 Vol 31/12
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?
342%OuiNon
226%OuiNon
$4,7 k Vol 03/11
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
October 3171%OuiNon
September 3062%OuiNon
$347 Vol 01/11
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
96%
de chance
Oui Non
$364,4 k Vol 31/12
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Florida?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Florida?
1014%OuiNon
12+14%OuiNon
$3,9 k Vol 03/11
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FAQ sur les Marchés Trump

Quels marchés Trump sont en direct maintenant ?

Approbation annuelle, résultats de politiques spécifiques, procédures judiciaires, résultats de négociations internationales et décisions de nominations de hauts fonctionnaires.

Qu'est-ce qui fait bouger les prix ?

Les déclarations de Trump (en particulier sur Truth Social), les annonces officielles de la Maison Blanche, les décisions judiciaires et les actions du Congrès. Les réactions sont très rapides.

Comment gérer le risque sur les marchés Trump ?

Haute volatilité : constituez des positions progressivement, évitez la sur-concentration dans un seul marché et vérifiez la profondeur du carnet d'ordres avant d'entrer.

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