トランプ予測市場

トランプの予測市場はポリマーケットの中で最も活発なものであり、任期、法的手続き、外交政策（ウクライナ、中国、中東）、国内政策、一般的な承認が含まれます。取引量は数億ドルを超えます。

これらの市場は、トゥルース・ソーシャル、インタビュー、ホワイトハウスの発表を通じて、主要な発言に強く反応します。リアルタイムのニュース報道が取引機会を生み出します。

100件のアクティブなマーケット
並び替え
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
18%
確率
はい いいえ
$981.4万 取引高 01/01
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%はいいいえ
August 25August 2599%はいいいえ
$263.3万 取引高 30/09
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3173%はいいいえ
October 3152%はいいいえ
$1,943.2万 取引高 01/01
米国とイランの平和交渉の次のラウンドまで...?米国とイランの平和交渉の次のラウンドまで...?
March 31, 202765%はいいいえ
December 31, 202652%はいいいえ
$10.7万 取引高 01/04
アメリカは2027年までにイランに侵攻するか？ アメリカは2027年までにイランに侵攻するか？
17%
確率
はい いいえ
$9万 取引高 31/12
イラン政権は2027年までに崩壊する？ イラン政権は2027年までに崩壊する？
7%
確率
はい いいえ
$8.7万 取引高 31/12
Russia nuclear test by...?Russia nuclear test by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20266%はいいいえ
September 30, 2026September 30, 20261%はいいいえ
$621.1万 取引高 01/01
10月のFRB決定は？10月のFRB決定は？
No change72%はいいいえ
25 bps increase25%はいいいえ
$205.7万 取引高 28/10
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
September 3017%はいいいえ
September 158%はいいいえ
$67.3万 取引高 01/10
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 314%
August 314%
$27.4万 取引高 01/09
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Steve WitkoffSteve Witkoff45%はいいいえ
Mohammad Bagher GhalibafMohammad Bagher Ghalibaf41%はいいいえ
$2.2万 取引高 31/12
イランは12月31日までにウラン濃縮停止に合意する？ イランは12月31日までにウラン濃縮停止に合意する？
14%
確率
はい いいえ
$2.2万 取引高 31/12
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
September 3040%はいいいえ
August 3112%はいいいえ
$91.5万 取引高 01/10
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3124%はいいいえ
October 3115%はいいいえ
$594.4万 取引高 01/01
米国とイランの平和交渉の次のラウンドはどこで行われるか...?米国とイランの平和交渉の次のラウンドはどこで行われるか...?
9月30日まで会議なし74%はいいいえ
スイス10%はいいいえ
$1.8万 取引高 30/09
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
ChinaChina52%はいいいえ
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3148%はいいいえ
$1.7万 取引高 31/12
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
August 2494%はいいいえ
August 3192%はいいいえ
$1.5万 取引高 01/09
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
確率
はい いいえ
$2.9万 取引高 31/12
Trump out as President by August 31? Trump out as President by August 31?
1%
確率
はい いいえ
$2.9万 取引高 31/08
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Scott JenningsScott Jennings25%はいいいえ
Anna KellyAnna Kelly17%はいいいえ
$15万 取引高 31/12
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
AlibabaAlibaba22%はいいいえ
CATLCATL19%はいいいえ
$18.7万 取引高 30/06
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?
200+88%はいいいえ
180-19912%はいいいえ
$1.2万 取引高 本日終了
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman77%はいいいえ
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin48%はいいいえ
$1.1万 取引高 31/12
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
4%
確率
はい いいえ
$7,484 取引高 31/12
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
86%
確率
はい いいえ
$7,221 取引高 31/12
習近平は2027年以前にアメリカを訪問しますか？習近平は2027年以前にアメリカを訪問しますか？
December 3197%はいいいえ
October 3196%はいいいえ
$73.9万 取引高 31/12
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro86%はいいいえ
Delcy Rodríguez10%はいいいえ
$9,578.9万 取引高 31/12
12月のFRB決定は？12月のFRB決定は？
No change61%はいいいえ
25 bps increase29%はいいいえ
$205.7万 取引高 09/12
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4727%はいいいえ
4914%はいいいえ
$286.4万 取引高 03/11
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
August 31, 20261%
December 31, 202610%
$3,988 取引高 01/01
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
6%
確率
はい いいえ
$26万 取引高 31/12
What will Trump say this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Trump say this week? (August 24 - August 30)
God90%はいいいえ
Boom / Booming81%はいいいえ
$5,378 取引高 残り7日
US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday? US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?
62%
確率
はい いいえ
$5,842 取引高 本日終了
1月のFRB決定は？1月のFRB決定は？
No change61%はいいいえ
25 bps increase22%はいいいえ
$205.7万 取引高 27/01
Who will be arrested before 2027?Who will be arrested before 2027?
Mahmoud Khalil30%はいいいえ
John Brennan18%はいいいえ
$38.9万 取引高
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?
1220%はいいいえ
1019%はいいいえ
$1万 取引高 03/11
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 316%はいいいえ
September 302%はいいいえ
$2,914.9万 取引高 01/01
What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?
Iran 5+ times63%はいいいえ
Go ahead 5+ times58%はいいいえ
$3,274 取引高 31/08
What will Trump say in August?What will Trump say in August?
Movie Star52%はいいいえ
Green New Scam52%はいいいえ
$2,867 取引高 31/08
Who will Trump meet with in August?Who will Trump meet with in August?
Elon MuskElon Musk11%はいいいえ
Giorgia MeloniGiorgia Meloni7%はいいいえ
$1.1万 取引高 31/08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
June 30, 202755%はいいいえ
March 31, 202744%はいいいえ
$604.2万 取引高 01/07
What will Scott Bessent say during press conference?What will Scott Bessent say during press conference?
Oil / Gas / Gasoline86%はいいいえ
Regime80%はいいいえ
$2,491 取引高 本日終了
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?
554%はいいいえ
618%はいいいえ
$1.2万 取引高 03/11
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?
30+7%はいいいえ
40+2%はいいいえ
$2,356 取引高 31/08
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?
September 3086%はいいいえ
September 1578%はいいいえ
$2,558 取引高 01/10
What will JD Vance say during remarks in Maine?What will JD Vance say during remarks in Maine?
Trump 10+ times99%はいいいえ
Illegal Alien99%はいいいえ
$2,221 取引高 本日終了
What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?
Good Morning80%はいいいえ
Productivity77%はいいいえ
$4.6万 取引高 残り5日
Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?
December 31, 202610%
June 30, 202724%
$4.3万 取引高 01/07
Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by Aug 28? Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by Aug 28?
23%
確率
はい いいえ
$3,541 取引高 残り5日
Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?
July 171%
December 3126%
$18.9万 取引高 01/01
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 21 - August 28, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 21 - August 28, 2026?
200+61%はいいいえ
180-19920%はいいいえ
$1.2万 取引高 残り4日
How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?
4863%はいいいえ
4717%はいいいえ
$7,155 取引高 03/11
When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?
September 3063%はいいいえ
September 1132%はいいいえ
$5.7万 取引高 01/10
Who will Trump publicly praise in August?Who will Trump publicly praise in August?
Xi JinpingXi Jinping74%はいいいえ
Doug FordDoug Ford42%はいいいえ
$1,538 取引高 31/08
Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?
December 31, 20265%
June 30, 202711%
$2.6万 取引高 01/07
What will Trump say during Rose Garden event?What will Trump say during Rose Garden event?
Child / Children 5+ times92%はいいいえ
College87%はいいいえ
$1,448 取引高 本日終了
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 3117%はいいいえ
October 318%はいいいえ
$113万 取引高 31/12
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 25 - September 1, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 25 - September 1, 2026?
200+53%はいいいえ
180-19926%はいいいえ
$1.2万 取引高 01/09
Who will Trump speak to in August?Who will Trump speak to in August?
Friedrich MerzFriedrich Merz55%はいいいえ
Elon MuskElon Musk44%はいいいえ
$1,429 取引高 31/08
Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?
Candace OwensCandace Owens27%はいいいえ
Kaitlan CollinsKaitlan Collins27%はいいいえ
$1,338 取引高 31/08
Weed rescheduled by...?Weed rescheduled by...?
December 3118%はいいいえ
September 3016%はいいいえ
$1,338 取引高 01/01
What will Trump post this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Trump post this week? (August 24 - August 30)
Communist / Communism90%はいいいえ
Crime88%はいいいえ
$1,646 取引高 残り7日
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
3.75%45%はいいいえ
4.0%31%はいいいえ
$677.1万 取引高 09/12
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?
2%
確率
はい いいえ
$1,677 取引高 31/08
Kash Patelは...までに退任する？Kash Patelは...までに退任する？
December 3125%はいいいえ
September 308%はいいいえ
$170.2万 取引高 01/01
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
IrelandIreland99%はいいいえ
ドイツドイツ39%はいいいえ
$1,189 取引高 31/12
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Ryan SalameRyan Salame23%はいいいえ
Daniel PennyDaniel Penny21%はいいいえ
$42.8万 取引高 31/12
Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?
285M56%はいいいえ
270M1%はいいいえ
$5.9万 取引高 09/09
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
December 313%はいいいえ
August 311%はいいいえ
$630.4万 取引高 01/01
Netanyahu arrested by…?Netanyahu arrested by…?
December 316%はいいいえ
September 302%はいいいえ
$2.2万 取引高 01/01
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
6%
確率
はい いいえ
$6.5万 取引高 31/12
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?
December 31, 202621%
June 30, 20262%
$5.5万 取引高 01/01
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027No meeting before 202794%はいいいえ
スイススイス3%はいいいえ
$904 取引高 31/12
Trump meets with Putin by...?Trump meets with Putin by...?
December 3148%はいいいえ
September 302%はいいいえ
$15.2万 取引高 01/01
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
16%
確率
はい いいえ
$839 取引高 31/12
Trump approval rating on August 28?Trump approval rating on August 28?
38.0–38.435%はいいいえ
38.5–38.930%はいいいえ
$779 取引高 残り5日
How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?
173%はいいいえ
221%はいいいえ
$3,934 取引高 03/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?
433%はいいいえ
532%はいいいえ
$6,143 取引高 03/11
Will Trump launch a coin by ___?Will Trump launch a coin by ___?
December 31, 202619%
March 31, 20266%
$8.9万 取引高 01/01
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Cuban regime falls in 2026?
13%
確率
はい いいえ
$162.9万 取引高 31/12
Which companies will the US take a stake in?Which companies will the US take a stake in?
GlobalFoundries89%はいいいえ
Rigetti79%はいいいえ
$17.3万 取引高 31/12
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
October 3150%はいいいえ
December 3150%はいいいえ
$288.5万 取引高 01/01
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
December 3128%はいいいえ
September 307%はいいいえ
$641.1万 取引高 01/01
US strike on Mexico by...?US strike on Mexico by...?
December 3112%はいいいえ
January 311%はいいいえ
$344.6万 取引高 01/01
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
2%
確率
はい いいえ
$547 取引高 31/12
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
India18%はいいいえ
Israel16%はいいいえ
$504 取引高 31/12
Maduro Prison Time?Maduro Prison Time?
No prison time39%はいいいえ
60+33%はいいいえ
$67.6万 取引高 31/12
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?
December 31, 202629%はいいいえ
August 31, 20263%はいいいえ
$8.7万 取引高 01/01
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
7%
確率
はい いいえ
$1,057.6万 取引高 31/12
イランは...までに濃縮ウランの在庫を引き渡すことに同意する...?イランは...までに濃縮ウランの在庫を引き渡すことに同意する...?
12月31日8%はいいいえ
10月31日3%はいいいえ
$1,777.2万 取引高 01/01
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
52%
確率
はい いいえ
$30.7万 取引高 31/12
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31? Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?
20%
確率
はい いいえ
$7,419 取引高 残り7日
How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
35%35%25%はいいいえ
30%30%6%はいいいえ
$386 取引高 31/12
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?
342%はいいいえ
226%はいいいえ
$4,738 取引高 03/11
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 313%はいいいえ
June 263%はいいいえ
$157.4万 取引高 01/09
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
67%
確率
はい いいえ
$419 取引高 20/01
Fed abolished before 2027? Fed abolished before 2027?
5%
確率
はい いいえ
$352 取引高 31/12
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
October 3172%はいいいえ
September 3061%はいいいえ
$347 取引高 01/11
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?
1%
確率
はい いいえ
$10.8万 取引高 31/12
Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election? Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election?
No Endorsement65%はいいいえ
Likud31%はいいいえ
$2.9万 取引高 28/10
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トランプ市場 FAQ

現在ライブのトランプ市場はどれですか？

年間承認、特定の政策結果、法的手続き、国際交渉の結果、そして高官の任命決定です。

価格を動かす要因は何ですか？

トランプの発言（特にトゥルース・ソーシャル）、公式のホワイトハウスの発表、裁判所の判決、そして議会の行動です。反応は非常に速いです。

トランプ市場でリスクを管理するにはどうすればよいですか？

高いボラティリティ：ポジションを徐々に構築し、単一の市場に過度に集中しないようにし、エントリー前にオーダーブックの深さを確認してください。

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