Iran-Israel Conflict Prediction Markets

Iran-Israel is among the most active prediction-market clusters on Polymarket. Traders price an Israeli strike on Iranian enrichment sites (Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan), Iranian ballistic retaliation ("True Promise" series), a return to the nuclear deal, and the cascading regional response via Hezbollah and the Houthis.

Volume spikes after every Khamenei statement, Iranian missile test, or Israeli war-cabinet decision. Highly volatile markets with double-digit price swings within hours. Watch Trump-Netanyahu statements and US carrier-group movements in the Gulf.

14 active markets
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%YesNo
August 25August 2599%YesNo
$2.5M Volume 30/09
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
17%
chance
Yes No
$86.9K Volume 31/12
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 3197%YesNo
September 3089%YesNo
$26.3M Volume 31/08
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 318%YesNo
September 302%YesNo
$71.5M Volume 01/01
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
1%
chance
Yes No
$82.8K Volume 30/09
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
7%
chance
Yes No
$82.8K Volume 31/12
Israel closes its airspace by...?Israel closes its airspace by...?
September 308%YesNo
August 312%YesNo
$27.4M Volume 01/10
Iran leadership change by...?Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202725%YesNo
December 3116%YesNo
$24M Volume 01/07
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3074%YesNo
Switzerland10%YesNo
$19.8K Volume 30/09
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3129%YesNo
October 3113%YesNo
$6.8M Volume 01/01
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Mohammad Bagher GhalibafMohammad Bagher Ghalibaf42%YesNo
Jared KushnerJared Kushner39%YesNo
$16.9K Volume 31/12
Iran full airspace closure by...?Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 3126%YesNo
September 3010%YesNo
$8.6M Volume 01/01
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 3110%YesNo
September 302%YesNo
$8.4M Volume 01/01
Khamenei # posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?Khamenei # posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?
<598%YesNo
5-92%YesNo
$5.2K Volume 2 days left
Load more on Polymarket →

Iran-Israel Markets FAQ

What Iran-Israel markets are open?

Israeli strike on nuclear sites, Iranian retaliation (ballistic, drones, Hezbollah proxy), JCPOA-revival markets, and new US-sanction markets.

What moves Iran-Israel market prices?

Khamenei and Pezeshkian statements, Iranian missile and drone tests, IAEA reports on 90%-enrichment, Mossad chief visits to Washington, and Netanyahu-Trump meetings.

How do I start trading?

Open a Polymarket account via our official referral link, deposit USDC on Polygon, and search "Iran" or "Israel" in quick-search. These markets require real-time news monitoring.

Start Polymarket Training For Free
Trade prediction markets with virtual money. Real prices, zero risk. Compete on the leaderboard.
$1K
Virtual Cash
500+
Markets
$0
Real Risk
Learn more
Real prices Zero risk Leaderboard