Iran Prediction Markets

Iran prediction markets track critical developments: nuclear enrichment, IAEA reports, nuclear-deal negotiations, sanctions imposed or lifted, and regional events. Prices move in real time reacting to news out of Sinai, Vienna and Tehran.

These markets typically have strong liquidity around news events and longer expirations (months to a year), enabling dynamic trading.

45 active markets
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%YesNo
August 25August 2599%YesNo
$2.5M Volume 30/09
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3173%YesNo
October 3154%YesNo
$19.3M Volume 01/01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
35%
chance
Yes No
$378.5K Volume 31/12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
August 311%
August 151%
$378.5K Volume 01/09
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
March 31, 202765%YesNo
December 31, 202652%YesNo
$116K Volume 01/04
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 3112%YesNo
November 307%YesNo
$16.2M Volume 01/01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
6%
chance
Yes No
$378.5K Volume 30/09
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
17%
chance
Yes No
$84.6K Volume 31/12
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 3197%YesNo
September 3089%YesNo
$26.3M Volume 31/08
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3144%YesNo
October 3136%YesNo
$2.5M Volume 01/01
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 318%YesNo
September 302%YesNo
$71.5M Volume 01/01
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
1%
chance
Yes No
$79.4K Volume 30/09
Will Iran target Jordan by...?Will Iran target Jordan by...?
September 3039%YesNo
September 1518%YesNo
$40.5K Volume 30/09
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
7%
chance
Yes No
$79.4K Volume 31/12
Israel closes its airspace by...?Israel closes its airspace by...?
September 308%YesNo
August 312%YesNo
$27.4M Volume 01/10
Iran leader end of 2026?Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei82%YesNo
No Head of State4%YesNo
$38.8M Volume 31/12
Iran leadership change by...?Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202725%YesNo
December 3116%YesNo
$24M Volume 01/07
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
September 3017%YesNo
September 158%YesNo
$663.6K Volume 01/10
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 314%
August 314%
$274.2K Volume 01/09
Crude Oil all time high by...?Crude Oil all time high by...?
December 3113%YesNo
September 302%YesNo
$2.7M Volume 01/01
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
14%
chance
Yes No
$22.4K Volume 31/12
USD x Iranian rials End of August?USD x Iranian rials End of August?
2.0-2.1M46%YesNo
2.1-2.2M34%YesNo
$20.7K Volume 31/08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
25%
chance
Yes No
$378.5K Volume 30/11
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3074%YesNo
Switzerland10%YesNo
$17.6K Volume 30/09
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3129%YesNo
October 3113%YesNo
$6.8M Volume 01/01
Houthis successfully target shipping by...?Houthis successfully target shipping by...?
September 3094%YesNo
August 3177%YesNo
$21.7K Volume 30/09
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Mohammad Bagher GhalibafMohammad Bagher Ghalibaf43%YesNo
Jared KushnerJared Kushner39%YesNo
$16.9K Volume 31/12
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
September 3053%YesNo
August 3115%YesNo
$908.6K Volume 01/10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
16%
chance
Yes No
$378.5K Volume 31/10
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Iran Reconstruction FundingIran Reconstruction Funding17%YesNo
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)11%YesNo
$687.4K Volume 31/12
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 3118%YesNo
October 3111%YesNo
$11.1M Volume 01/01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
2%
chance
Yes No
$378.5K Volume 15/09
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
15%
chance
Yes No
$189.8K Volume 31/12
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026No Return to Normal Traffic in 202668%YesNo
December9%YesNo
$333.4K Volume 31/12
Iran full airspace closure by...?Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 3126%YesNo
September 3010%YesNo
$8.6M Volume 01/01
Will Iran target a Arab country on...?Will Iran target a Arab country on...?
August 1799%YesNo
August 3012%YesNo
$660.2K Volume 31/08
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
August 311%
September 303%
$108K Volume 01/10
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?
30+7%YesNo
40+2%YesNo
$5.3K Volume 31/08
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?
September 3033%YesNo
September 1516%YesNo
$5K Volume 30/09
Houthis successfully target shipping on...?Houthis successfully target shipping on...?
August 1779%YesNo
August 2478%YesNo
$21.9K Volume 31/08
European military action against Iran by...?European military action against Iran by...?
July 311%
August 311%
$307.8K Volume 31/08
Will Iran target an Arab country by...?Will Iran target an Arab country by...?
August 225%
August 3130%
$3.5K Volume 31/08
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 3110%YesNo
September 302%YesNo
$8.4M Volume 01/01
Khamenei # posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?Khamenei # posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?
<599%YesNo
5-91%YesNo
$5K Volume 2 days left
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 316%YesNo
September 302%YesNo
$29.1M Volume 01/01
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Iran Markets FAQ

What Iran markets exist on Polymarket?

Nuclear markets (will Iran reach 90% enrichment?), sanctions (will sanction X be lifted by date Y?), diplomacy (will a deal be signed?), and military conflict markets.

What moves Iran market prices?

Probabilities come from live order-book depth. IAEA reports, statements from Tehran or Washington, and major media coverage can move prices within minutes.

Can I trade during regional escalations?

Yes. Polymarket stays live with notably higher volume during tensions. Trading geopolitical markets requires tight risk management.

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