Politics Prediction Markets
Politics markets are among Polymarket's deepest - US elections (president, Congress), Israel, UK, Germany, France and Brazil. Also government crises, no-confidence votes, impeachments and cabinet appointments.
Polls are one input among many - prediction markets aggregate polling, voter knowledge, social data and expert forecasts into a single price. Often more accurate than any single poll.
No change68%YesNo25 bps increase32%YesNo
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva63%YesNo
Flávio Bolsonaro33%YesNo
August 2299%YesNoAugust 2599%YesNo
December 3173%YesNo
October 3153%YesNo
300-31941%YesNo
320-33937%YesNo
JD Vance23%YesNo
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%YesNo40-6479%YesNo
<4020%YesNo
Marine Le Pen32%YesNo
Édouard Philippe25%YesNo
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez23%YesNo
Gavin Newsom15%YesNo
Magdalena Andersson90%YesNo
Ulf Kristersson10%YesNo
J.D. Vance47%YesNo
Marco Rubio20%YesNo
United Russia (ER)71%YesNo
New People (NL)23%YesNoAugust 311%
August 151%
March 31, 202765%YesNo
December 31, 202652%YesNo
200-21920%YesNo
220-23920%YesNo
Democrats Sweep48%YesNo
R Senate, D House39%YesNo
June 30, 202714%YesNo
December 31, 20268%YesNo
Gadi Eizenkot58%YesNo
Benjamin Netanyahu27%YesNo
200-21914%YesNo
220-23914%YesNo
December 31, 20266%YesNoSeptember 30, 20261%YesNo
September 308%YesNo
August 312%YesNo
Eduardo Paes94%YesNo
Douglas Ruas5%YesNo
Mojtaba Khamenei82%YesNo
No Head of State4%YesNo
December 314%YesNo
September 301%YesNo
June 30, 202725%YesNo
December 3116%YesNo
July 314%
August 314%
December 315%YesNoSeptember 305%YesNo
Elon Musk11%YesNo
Giorgia Meloni3%YesNo40-6446%YesNo
65-8929%YesNo
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)98%YesNo
Sweden Democrats (SD)1%YesNoFlávio Bolsonaro86%YesNoLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva6%YesNo
December 3152%YesNo
October 3119%YesNo
No Meeting by September 3074%YesNo
Switzerland10%YesNo
Democratic Party89%YesNo
Republican Party12%YesNo
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf42%YesNo
Jared Kushner39%YesNo
Iran Reconstruction Funding17%YesNo
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)11%YesNo
Yulia Navalnaya8%YesNo
Volodymyr Zelenskyy5%YesNo325–33942%YesNo
340–35422%YesNo
December 3118%YesNo
October 3111%YesNo
880-91924%YesNo
840-87919%YesNo
No meeting by December 3152%YesNo
China45%YesNo
December 3152%YesNo
September 3010%YesNo
James Talarico (D)51%YesNo
Ken Paxton (R)49%YesNo
Scott Jennings28%YesNo
Anna Kelly16%YesNo
Abdul El-Sayed (D)62%YesNo
Mike Rogers (R)39%YesNo
June 30, 202758%YesNo
March 31, 202741%YesNo
No Return to Normal Traffic in 202668%YesNoDecember9%YesNo
December 3196%YesNo
September 3093%YesNo
David Morales52%YesNo
Brett Smiley47%YesNo
Ruth González Silva53%YesNo
Gerardo Sánchez Zumaya10%YesNo
Edin Forto21%YesNo
Nermin Nikšić13%YesNo
Ricardo Ferraço73%YesNo
Lorenzo Pazolini25%YesNo
United Russia (ER)99%YesNo
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)1%YesNo
200+65%YesNo
180-19934%YesNo
Helena Foulkes94%YesNo
Dan McKee5%YesNo
Mohammed bin Salman77%YesNo
Vladimir Putin46%YesNo
Bola Tinubu69%YesNo
Peter Obi24%YesNo
Eduardo Braga72%YesNo
Capitão Alberto Neto15%YesNo
August 2495%YesNo
August 2893%YesNo
Dr. Fernando Máximo40%YesNo
Sílvia Cristina38%YesNo
125-12830%YesNo
121-12423%YesNo
Stephen Lynch51%YesNo
Patrick Roath51%YesNo
200+88%YesNo
180-19911%YesNo
December 3117%YesNo
August 317%YesNo
Professora Dorinha59%YesNo
Vicentinho Júnior36%YesNo
Jean-Luc Mélenchon96%YesNo
Nathalie Arthaud93%YesNo
Democratic Party95%YesNo
Republican Party5%YesNo
Benedita da Silva48%YesNo
Carlos Jordy47%YesNo
David Crowley (D)81%YesNo
Tom Tiffany (R)20%YesNo
80-9980%YesNo
100-11910%YesNo
December 3135%YesNo
September 307%YesNo
Guilherme Derrite34%YesNo
Marina Silva32%YesNo
5-7%63%YesNo
7-9%22%YesNo
Linke57%YesNo
CDU26%YesNo
Ciro Nogueira39%YesNo
Julio Cesar31%YesNo
Albert Aníbal Arenas Yabar30%YesNo
William Peña Farfán23%YesNo
Nicolás Maduro86%YesNo
Delcy Rodríguez10%YesNo
December 3149%YesNo
May 311%YesNo
Rosa María Bayardo Cabrera49%YesNo
Gricelda Valencia de la Mora27%YesNo
Princess Faku59%YesNo
Yomelela Tyali7%YesNo
Alexandre Guimarães34%YesNo
Gaguim32%YesNoPolitics Markets FAQ
Are prediction markets more accurate than polls?
Often - yes. They aggregate diverse information (polls, inside knowledge, analysis) into one price. Not perfect though; treat them as a key tool, not the only one.
Which elections are covered on Polymarket?
US presidential and congressional, European and Asian governments, key local races, party primaries. Every major democracy gets meaningful coverage.
How do I trade elections smartly?
Track standard polling but avoid thin-liquidity markets. Hedging around debates or major interviews can reduce risk on concentrated positions.
