China Prediction Markets

China prediction markets on Polymarket cover the country's central scenarios: the Taiwan question, trade and tariff policy, foreign relations, and macroeconomic developments. Prices are set in real time based on order-book depth, not a headline.

These markets are especially active around major statements, trade announcements and shifts in cross-strait tension.

47 active markets
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4%
chance
Yes No
$44.3K Volume 31/12
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
33%
chance
Yes No
$31.9K Volume 31/12
Best Chinese AI Company end of August?Best Chinese AI Company end of August?
AlibabaAlibaba93%YesNo
Z.aiZ.ai4%YesNo
$23.1K Volume 7 days left
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
AlibabaAlibaba22%YesNo
CATLCATL19%YesNo
$186.9K Volume 30/06
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
MoonshotMoonshot53%YesNo
Z.aiZ.ai35%YesNo
$15.9K Volume 30/09
Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?
December 3197%YesNo
October 3196%YesNo
$738.9K Volume 31/12
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
87%
chance
Yes No
$6.2K Volume 31/12
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?
Z.aiZ.ai61%YesNo
MoonshotMoonshot35%YesNo
$15.9K Volume 31/08
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
8%
chance
Yes No
$4.2K Volume 31/12
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
2%
chance
Yes No
$1.1M Volume 31/12
Best Chinese AI Company end of September?Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
AlibabaAlibaba67%YesNo
Z.aiZ.ai16%YesNo
$23.1K Volume 30/09
Where will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall?Where will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall?
China92%YesNo
Japan49%YesNo
$5.7K Volume 01/09
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
Z.aiZ.ai34%YesNo
MoonshotMoonshot28%YesNo
$15.9K Volume 31/10
Hu Jintao public appearance by December 31? Hu Jintao public appearance by December 31?
3%
chance
Yes No
$4.3K Volume 31/12
China x Japan military clash before 2027? China x Japan military clash before 2027?
9%
chance
Yes No
$1.3M Volume 31/12
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?
December 31, 202621%
June 30, 20262%
$55.5K Volume 01/01
China Annual GDP Growth 2026China Annual GDP Growth 2026
4.0–5.0%88%YesNo
5.0–6.0%8%YesNo
$881.8K Volume 31/01
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
4.3-4.6%46%YesNo
4.6-4.9%36%YesNo
$559 Volume 20/10
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
MoonshotMoonshot37%YesNo
Z.aiZ.ai29%YesNo
$1K Volume 31/10
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?
MoonshotMoonshot65%YesNo
Z.aiZ.ai32%YesNo
$1K Volume 31/08
Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026? Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
39%
chance
Yes No
$17.6K Volume 31/12
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
1%
chance
Yes No
$44.3K Volume 30/09
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?
December 3148%YesNo
September 303%YesNo
$86.5K Volume 01/01
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?
1%
chance
Yes No
$107.4K Volume 31/12
Best Chinese AI Company end of October?Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
AlibabaAlibaba55%YesNo
MoonshotMoonshot27%YesNo
$23.1K Volume 31/10
Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
#337%YesNo
#111%YesNo
$211.3K Volume 31/12
China coup attempt before 2027? China coup attempt before 2027?
4%
chance
Yes No
$170 Volume 31/12
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
8%
chance
Yes No
$44.3K Volume 30/06
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
6%
chance
Yes No
$106 Volume 31/12
People's Bank of China rate change by September 30?People's Bank of China rate change by September 30?
No Change87%YesNo
Decrease13%YesNo
$100 Volume 30/09
Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?
Dong Jun12%YesNo
Zhang Shengmin5%YesNo
$202.2K Volume 31/12
China ballistic missile launch by December 31? China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
19%
chance
Yes No
$8.2K Volume 31/12
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
12%
chance
Yes No
$44.3K Volume 31/12
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Z.aiZ.ai49%YesNo
MoonshotMoonshot23%YesNo
$1K Volume 30/09
US x China tariff agreement by August 31? US x China tariff agreement by August 31?
1%
chance
Yes No
$6.2K Volume 31/08
China Annual Inflation 2026China Annual Inflation 2026
0.6 – 1.0%60%YesNo
0.1 – 0.5%18%YesNo
$73.9K Volume 10/01
China x India military clash by...?China x India military clash by...?
June 3050%YesNo
December 3150%YesNo
$327.7K Volume 01/01
Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
DeepSeekDeepSeek30%YesNo
ByteDanceByteDance15%YesNo
$76.6K Volume 30/06
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
14%
chance
Yes No
$38.3K Volume 31/12
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
4%
chance
Yes No
$105.6K Volume 31/12
Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ? Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ?
2%
chance
Yes No
$48.8K Volume 31/12
August Inflation China - AnnualAugust Inflation China - Annual
0.5% - 0.6%39%YesNo
0.7% - 0.8%32%YesNo
$18.6K Volume 09/09
Jimmy Lai released by...?Jimmy Lai released by...?
December 31, 20262%
June 30, 20261%
$379.5K Volume 01/01
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
9%
chance
Yes No
$157.9K Volume 31/12
US x China Military clash before 2027? US x China Military clash before 2027?
4%
chance
Yes No
$197.4K Volume 31/12
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by...?Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by...?
June 301%
December 3114%
$136.7K Volume 01/01
Xi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by...?Xi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by...?
December 3194%YesNo
September 304%YesNo
$45.5K Volume 01/01
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China Markets FAQ

What China markets exist on Polymarket?

Taiwan and cross-strait scenarios, trade and tariff decisions, foreign policy events, and economic indicators. Binary and multi-outcome contracts.

What moves China market prices?

Official statements, trade announcements, military and diplomatic developments and major news reports. Prices react within minutes to significant developments.

Can I trade China markets from anywhere?

Yes, through Polymarket's Polygon account. Track live China markets on our site and open an account through our referral link.

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